U.S. Death Rate Decline Has Slowed
And still the ultimate death rate remains frustratingly stuck at 100 percent.
The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) has published an article, "Temporal Trends in Mortality in the United States 1969-2013," that parses U.S. death rates from 1969 to 2013. The researchers look at the change in age-standardized death rates and years of potential life lost before age 75 years for all causes combined and for heart disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, unintentional injuries, and diabetes mellitus.
First, the good news—your chances of making it to your 75th birthday have never been better. For example, since 1969 the death rate per 100,000 from heart disease before age 75 for both sexes had dropped 520 to 170 annually. Death from stroke has fallen from 157 to 36 per year. The news on cancer is not so spectacular, but the rate has fallen from 199 to 163 annually. And the diabetes death rate is only slightly lower, moving from 25 to 21 per year.
The massive decline in deaths from heart disease and strokes is attributed to better treatments such as the development of effective drugs to lower cholesterol and blood pressure.
However, the researchers find that for the most recent period, 2010 to 2013 the rate of mortality decline has slowed. They speculate that the slow down is the result of rising obesity among Americans. From the study:
Our observed recent attenuation in declining death rates for obesity-related diseases (eg, heart disease, stroke, and diabetes) may reflect the lagged consequences of increased obesity prevalence since the 1980s. A similar leveling off of declines in death rates for coronary heart disease among young adults has been observed in Wales and England and Australia. In addition to obesity, explanations for these patterns include ceiling on life expectancy, although the slowdown was also observed in premature deaths (measured by years of potential life lost), and slowing of the rate of discovery and dissemination of public health and clinical interventions that have driven declines in morality in recent decades.
As background, U.S. life expectancy in 1969 stood at 66.8 years for males and 74 years for females. According to the latest figirues (2012), life expectancy for males is now 76.4 years and 81.2 years for females. Nevertheless, the ultimate death rate remains stuck at 100 percent.
Editor's Note: As of February 29, 2024, commenting privileges on reason.com posts are limited to Reason Plus subscribers. Past commenters are grandfathered in for a temporary period. Subscribe here to preserve your ability to comment. Your Reason Plus subscription also gives you an ad-free version of reason.com, along with full access to the digital edition and archives of Reason magazine. We request that comments be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment and ban commenters for any reason at any time. Comments may only be edited within 5 minutes of posting. Report abuses.
Please
to post comments
I don’t know about you, Bailey, but I plan to make it out of life alive. I’m as badass as that picture!
FoE: I plan to make it out of life alive … Or die trying!
Die… or die not. There is no try.
That is why Ron fails.
World Death Rate Holding Steady at 100%.
Wait three days.
Nevertheless, the ultimate death rate remains stuck at 100 percent.
Thanks a lot bacon!
*applause*
And still the ultimate death rate remains frustratingly stuck at 100 percent.
Nice trolling there, RB.
You know, you have 100% chance of dying? Just wanted to make sure everyone knew this. Just in case.
I blame oxygen. Everyone who has inhaled oxygen has died.
I’d go with nitrogen myself.
A nitrogen-oxygen conspiracy?
Holy shit! Mind. Blown.
I thought it was water. I may have to rethink my strategy now.
Not if you are a Q.
Look at how the men’s death rate declined faster than the women’s! And you want to tell me that the medical industry isn’t a cis-hetero anti-woman conspiracy that doesn’t care about women dying, only men?
/Jezzi OFF
We have ways of evening that out.
Ramirez: You cannot die, MacLeod. Accept it.
Connor MacLeod: I hate you!
Ramirez: Good. That is a perfect way to start.
No, sarcasmic. The Highlander was a documentary, and the events happened…in real time.
The only thing the Highlander movie had over the series was Clancy Brown.
Citation needed on the 100% death rate. I don’t think that is provable.
Yeah, what about these guys?
And I thought it was going to be a picture of The Rolling Stones.
Well, that would have been funnier.
Speaking of things, apparently this is a thing.
You never know with Bruce. He consistently delivers. From Mindwarp to Bubba Ho-tep, Bruce does damn good work. We’ll just have to see.
I’ll probably watch it.
The trailer is fantastic. But isn’t that often the case? I’ve seen so many whiz-bang awesome trailers that left me feeling like I got so much entertainment in those two minutes that it wasn’t worth my time to go see the full show/movie/whatever. Trailers are great these days. Or my attention span has been diminished. What were we talking about?
Fox’s X-Files trailers have me pretty excited about the show.
Hail to the King baby
Does this mean people aren’t not dying as fast as they used to?
Looks to me like they discovered the concept of a limit. Until they allow unfettered technical innovation and remove restrictions on organ donation/selling, that limit is unlikely to move much.
“We picked all the fruit off the lowest branches. There’s no more fruit left!”
Until they allow unfettered technical innovation and remove restrictions on organ donation/selling, that limit is unlikely to move much.
Bold promise/premise! Personally, I don’t find a lot of people dying of stroke or heart disease who would’ve survived if only they’d gotten on the transplant list or invested in 3D organ printing technology sooner.
Affirming the consequent FAIL
There is a long way to go.
I don’t remember how long ago it was, ten years?, but they only recently learned how to do prostate surgery without causing loss of dick function. They discovered they were cutting a vital nerve.
That is basic fucking anatomy.
*slaps self for bad pun.
As background, U.S. life expectancy in 1969 stood at 66.8 years for males and 74 years for females. According to the latest figirues (2012), life expectancy for males is now 76.4 years and 81.2 years for females.
The matriarchy is keeping me down
So, the US has these extra women and China has a lot of extra men….
Our extra women are all widowers or just plain old maids. They just won’t die.
We can send our women over the age of 76.4 to China!
Close the trade gap!
“Women are dying at higher rates relative to men!”
So men live ~13% longer now than in 1969, and women only ~9%. In 1969, the disparity in life expectancy stood at ~10%; in 2012, only ~6%. Clearly this means women are being provided less care and fewer resources than men.
Isn’t this a bad thing? Something about entitlement spending. Well, better it go broke sooner I guess.
And the diabetes death rate is only slightly lower, moving from 25 to 21 per year.
*looks around for SugarFree*
They speculate that the slow down is the result of rising obesity among Americans.
Not Global Warming?