Environmental Protection Agency

EPA Map Shows in 2100 Illinois Will Be as Hot as Louisiana; Maryland as Steamy as Florida

If the world doesn't cut back on greenhouse gas emissions



Earlier today I blogged about the new Environmental Protection Agency report Clmate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action, that looks at the economic effects of keeping global average temperature below an increase of 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. I noted that the increase in projected costs would amount to about 1.6 percent of the U.S. GDP in 2100.

To illustrate how the EPA thinks U.S. climate will change, the agency includes a nifty map showing projected changes in the in summertime temperatures for selected states with and without global GHG mitigation.

From the report:

The map compares mean summertime (June, July, and August) temperature in South Dakota, Illinois, and Maryland in 2050 and 2100 under the Reference and Mitigation scenarios to states with similar present-day temperatures. For example, the projected mean summertime temperature in Illinois in 2100 under the Reference scenario (83°F) is projected to be analogous to the mean summertime temperature in Louisiana from 1980-2009 (81°F). In other words, without global GHG mitigation, Illinois summers by 2100 are projected to "feel like" present-day Louisiana summers. The maps are not perfect representations of projected climate, as other factors such as humidity are not included, but they do provide a way of visualizing the magnitude of possible changes in the summertime conditions of the future.


So if the world does not cut back significantly on greenhouse gas emissions, the EPA projects that by 2100 South Dakotans will suffer through Arkansas weather; Chicagoans endure Jackson, Mississippi temperatures, and Marylanders will no longer have to be snowbirds.

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  1. You know who else made predictions that turned out not to be true…

    1. Erlich, every damned time….

    2. Nostradamus?

    3. The EPA, the last time they issued one of these reports?

    4. Rex Ryan?

    5. Well the science is settled. Surely none of you anti-intellectual fools could dispute this map of the United States that has a consensus of thousands of professionals behind it?!

      1. Wait, what kind of invincible transhuman supermen will inhabit in these hot hot states 85 years from now? Every scientist on earth agrees that, unless we take radical global action THIS YEAR, all the beautiful innocent children will be DEAD DEAD DEAD by 2050, much less 2100, killed by drastic climate change catastrophe.

        We must act NOW! to prevent untold billions of climate change child murder abuse genocides.

      2. Hey, Illinois, welcome to the South, Mother Fuckers!

  2. Here’s my question. Do I live on beachfront in 2100 or not in my current property? Because if I do, I’m going to be sitting pretty.

    1. You’re missing the bigger picture. Maryland will be America’s new Florida. Do you realize what that means?

      1. Maryland will then be a hot pile of shit?

      2. I don’t really care, so long as I own prime real estate. Is there anyway I can accelerate this warming trend?

        1. How high above sea level are you? If sea level rises a little bit, all of florida goes under.

          1. Well, we clearly need to warm just enough for me to have beachfront.

      3. Maryland Man will be an even worse thing than Florida Man?

        Pythons on the Potomac?

        What’s the downside?

        1. You know, DC is the right climate during the summer for pythons. Why not wild DC pythons?

          1. I’m not partial to snakes but anything that makes the rats on The Hill nervous is okay by me.

      4. That we’ll have to start seeing news stories about Maryland Man?

        1. Worse, what will the Florida Man stories start devolving into?

          1. Aqua Man?

      5. That my equal level of distaste for Boston and Miami will be weather correlated?

      6. You’re missing the bigger picture. Maryland will be America’s new Florida. Do you realize what that means?

        Lots of old people?

      7. Florida Man will now be Maryland Man?

        1. Sorry, posted before scrolling…

    2. The juvenile goober libertarians I see here are completely ignorant of the dangers we face. It does libertarians no good to continue with their climate and holocaust denial hipster attitudes.

      The grownups in our society are going to have to address this problem at some point. So what is it going to be? 1.carbon tax administered by the IMF or 2.the free market solution, BP just sends you all a bill for the CO2 pollutants you are responsible for each month? pick one

      1. hipster?

        go fuck yourself.

        aint no god damn hipster.




        what college did you go to? if i was your parents, i’d ask for a refund.


      2. hipster?

        go fuck yourself.

        aint no god damn hipster.




        what college did you go to? if i was your parents, i’d ask for a refund.


      3. Tony you just can’t hide your screwed up personality behind a sock.

      4. The grownups in our society are going to have to address this problem at some point.
        We can only hope. Given that the scope of the problem seems to be that the local weather is going to move a few hundred miles north, the adult thing to do would be to buy more short-sleeved shirts and be done with it.

  3. Wait, so I’m confused. Where does Arkansas go?

      1. Fuck, I’m there!

        1. only it’s still got the same people…

      2. Aloha’ll?

        1. Shut it down. You can have this one.

        2. They already eat pork, so they’re part way there. Interesting to think of Walmart as a Hawaiian company.

          I’ve got quite a few plumerias in my yard–I’ll keep some to sell to Harkansas’i when the time is right.

        3. Reward yourself for that one. Take a trip to Hawaii. Or Arkansas.

          1. Which one has more sluts?

            1. Yes.

              1. Take it from the expert, folks!


              1. TITS OR GTFO X

              2. Well ,now this is in my head.

            3. Warty don’t go to Arkansas, plz.

          2. I guess Hawaii itself just gets smaller and more slope-y.

            1. That’s kinda racist…

              1. Oops. Here’s my agonizer.

  4. But will cats and dogs live together?

    1. In harmony.

    2. I thought it was sin. Am I misremembering my apocalypse tropes?

  5. Is that their “truth telling” map?

  6. Where are the crosshairs? I can’t understand maps without crosshairs.

    1. Nice

    2. Right click and the compass rose becomes a bombsight.

  7. Like Maryland is going to make it down 95 and into NC by 2100

    1. Anyone who has ever tried to get to Hatteras on July 4 weekend knows you speak truth.

    2. That fucking state won’t move out of the left lane!

  8. I say let the world get warmer! We’ll grow oranges in Alaska!

    1. I say let the world get warmer! We’ll grow oranges in Alaska!

      This is why I hope we have another ice age. I hate [too much] heat.

      1. I’m pretty sure we’re in an “ice age” now, technically speaking. Yes, I know many folks use the expression “ice age” to describe something more extreme and that we are all supposed to respect democracy of language.

  9. I saw a map like this a few years ago. It had New Hampshire’s climate becoming like North Carolina’s. I forget when the folks that put together the map predicted this would happen.

    When I saw the map, my first thought was, “Goody! Less snow to shovel.” My second thought was, “Hopefully New Englanders will figure out air conditioning before then.”

    1. Hopefully New Englanders will figure out air conditioning before then.

      You know there will just be a Cash-for-Clunkers-style Jenny/AC swap.

  10. In other words, without global GHG mitigation, Illinois summers by 2100 are projected to “feel like” present-day Louisiana summers.

    That ain’t happening unless the sea level rises to the point that Illinois is coastal swamp.

    Let’s try this game with a few other data points:

    Average Tucson high temperature in July: 99.
    Average Phoenix high temperature in July: 106.

    So, worst case scenario, in Tucson the temperature will rise to the level it now reaches about 15 miles north of Tucson. Scary!

    Let’s try again, only this time in New Orleans and Chicago:

    Average New Orleans high temperature in July: 91
    Average Chicago high temperature in July: 84.


    That’s right, the spread between Chicago and New Orleans is 7 degrees, not 2 (as implied by the EPA). A better comparison would be that Chicago will experience the same summers in 2100 as Philadelphia (average high of 87). Scary!

    I smell freshly picked cherries.

    1. Note that they don’t do the coastal areas of the West Coast. We’re too cool in the summer, and some warming would be nice.

    2. This.

      And even average highs obscures key variables like humidity.

    3. You may have been facetious, but Tucson and Phoenix are a good bit more than 15 miles apart (it’s an almost 2-hour drive).

      1. Don’t you have your flying car yet?

      2. I think he either dropped a zero or was thinking Marana.

      3. You may have been facetious, but Tucson and Phoenix are a good bit more than 15 miles apart

        Yes, but the average high in Phoenix in July is 7 degrees higher than in Tucson, more than 3 times the 2 degrees the EPA is using.

        By the time you leave Tucson going North to Phoenix, you clear the Catalinas after about 15 miles and it starts getting hotter, so I think my 15 miles isn’t facetious at all.

        1. So, yes, for those like Mr. Stool who are familiar with the local geography, the doomsday prediction is that in 2100, Tucson will be as hot as Marana.

          1. Think about the ostriches!!! They’ll wilt!!!

    4. Everybody knows murders go up as the temps increase. Is the EPA accounting for the decrease in GHG emissions from all the additional murdered people no longer burning fuels?

  11. Do we not realize how absurd it is to make 85 year projections? Engineers used to say, “interpolate, don’t extrapolate”.

    1. Apparently, scientists and specially interested governmental agencies now possess god-like powers of seeing the future. Who knew they had it in them? Maybe they can tell me who wins the next 10 Superbowls* so I can clean up?

      * what am I saying, it will obviously be the Seahawks

      1. Yeah right. So there I was, minding my own business when this crazy old codger with a cane showed up. He says he’s my distant relative. I didn’t see any resemblance. So he says, “How would you like to be rich?” So I say, “Sure.” So he lays this book on me. He says this book’ll tell me the outcome of every sporting event ’till the end of this century. All I have to do is bet on a winner, and I’ll never lose. So I say, “What’s the catch?” He says, “No catch, just keep it a secret.” After that he disappeared. I never saw him again.

        1. Why don’t you make like a drum and get out of here?

          1. I HATE MANURE

            1. Warty: “I’m your density. I, I mean your des– nope. I’m your density.”

        2. He must have went Back to the Future !

      2. The Seahags will lose the next four Superbowls, taking down the Bills’ record for most collapses in a championship game.

        1. Hey! What are the Vikings? Chopped liver? 0-4, baby!

      3. Maybe some stock picks too?

    2. That was going to be my comment. Predicting 85 years out is no different than playing Long Island Medium.

      1. Climate cold reading.

  12. This is so stupid it is insulting. Even if the world did warm that much, the overall average temperature of the earth, if there even is such a thing, says little about the temperature in one particular place. The warming doesn’t have to be uniform. So pretending that it will be is an idiotic and dishonest waste of time.

    1. This is nothing but carnival barking before the Paris summit.

      1. And Reason just posts it without comment like it is legitimate.

        1. It’s the one statist vice Reason allows itself to indulge in

        2. I think you perhaps aren’t very good at detecting Ron-sarcasm.

        3. I know. Not even an eyeroll by Ron at an obviously bullshit report, that is trivially easy to debunk.

        4. J: I though it was evidently ridiculous – my fault for not editorializing.

          1. No, the commentariat has an extraordinary number of literalists.

            1. In our defense, the climate community needs to retcon their canon a bit. It wouldn’t be the first time satire was confused with legitimate research and vice versa.

          2. Come on. Even I could tell Ron was not being socialist here. Merely presenting their stupid report was all he needed to do . The absurdity of the report does the rest.

    2. Even if the world did warm that much, the overall average temperature of the earth, if there even is such a thing, says little about the temperature in one particular place. The warming doesn’t have to be uniform.

      I have a map where none of the averages move anywhere or change one iota except Los Angeles relocates to the surface of Mercury.

      2 degrees achieved.

      1. It’s a good map. It’d be better if it was Washington D.C.

  13. We should totally take the EPA supercereal on this, too, because all of its other predictions about global warming have been 100% accurate.

    I’m cereal, guys, we gotta listen.

    1. I blame this guy

  14. Thank god my tax dollars are paying for a bunch of EPA pinheads to screw around with this so that they don’t have to go get real jobs, like the one I have to have to support them.

  15. what guarantee do we have that the people of 2100 won’t be robot marriage phobic assholes and deserve to broil alive.

    1. Goddamn robophobes

    2. but do the robots deserve to overheat too?

  16. The Global Warming Faithful never seem to get that they have dug themselves a REAL deep hole, what with “hide the decline” and other classics of mendacity. By this time, they might be 100% spot on, and They are going to have a damn hard time convincing me of squat.

    1. No, they don’t see that. They also are immune to rational suasion. And it’s going to be difficult to prove them wrong in a way that is obvious to everyone. It would take like five sustained really cold winters and loss of significant parts of the Florida citrus crop to do that. And even then they’d claim it was all their pious remediation efforts.

      1. Five sustained cold winters? That is PROOF of serious manmade climate change.

    2. Or maybe I should blame this guy?

  17. It’s a good thing they made us change all our lightbulbs!

    1. And then made them expensive and hip.

      On the plus side, it’s much easier to explain to the broodlings who Tesla was and what he did than to explain… anything Edison did.

  18. I guess I’ll be moving to northern Quebec. I hate the summers where I am now.

    1. One of my buddies lives in Brooklyn. This appears to be how they spend the summer.

      1. That can’t be right. I’m reliably informed by Weekend At Bernie’s that they should all be covered in roofing pitch right now.

      2. Drinking Bud Light? Fuck that!

    2. But unless I’m miscalculating, Quebec will be in Venezuela by then!

      1. Plate Techtonics is sooo confusing.

        1. He was just talking aboot the lack of toilet paper.

      2. Worse. Northern Quebec will be in Chicago. And you know what they call pizza in Chicago?

  19. Here’s a similar map:


  20. The EPA does climate modelling now? That is ridiculous mission creep.

    1. That only works when the target is sympathetic, i.e. children. I hate Bill Nye because he sucks.

      1. He is a mendacious asshole.

  21. http://gawker.com/here-are-som…..1713336525

    Meanwhile the people at the New York Times are so ignorant, hate filled and tasteless they have managed to make Gawker seem rational and adult by comparison.

    1. Above is an old photo of the Times’ longtime opinion editor Andrew Rosenthal wielding a toy M-16 and a bottle of wine over many staffers stained with fake blood, “recreating,” according to the source who shared the photos with me, “the Nepalese royal massacre with the ‘dead and dying’ foreign desk.”

      Are you kidding? This is hilarious.

      1. Well yes, it is. But if someone else had done that, I doubt the times would have found it funny. Just holding them to their own standards.

        1. Sure, but when I suggested the office Christmas party be My Lai themed, suddenly I was the bad guy.

    2. …Were these team-building exercises or something?

    3. Asked by email about his part in staging the photos, Keller responded: “This is what journalists did with their childish impulses before there was Gawker.”


  22. Cannot tell if article is /sarc.

    1. l.l: /sarc, but evidently failed /sarc

      1. Thanx Ron… I hopefully suspected so. I’m aware of you “re-evaluating” some of your views on some of this stuff, but others may not be (as can be seen by some later posts).

  23. Lets take a stroll down memory lane and see what the “experts” in 2008 were telling us it was going to be like in 2015.

    New York City underwater? Gas over $9 a gallon? A carton of milk costs almost $13? Welcome to June 12, 2015. Or at least that was the wildly-inaccurate version of 2015 predicted by ABC News exactly seven years ago. Appearing on Good Morning America in 2008, Bob Woodruff hyped Earth 2100, a special that pushed apocalyptic predictions of the then-futuristic 2015. -f


    But I am sure they are right this time.

    1. To be fair, John, they were presenting both upsides and downsides. I mean, NYC underwater? C’mon. I’d pay more for gas if that’s what I got for it.

  24. These predictions are just ways to ensure they’re relevant now and then.

    Wouldn’t surprise me one bit half these people making this predictions are just arbitrarily pulling crap out of their asses based on some models rooted in false premises.

  25. I’ll just leave this here.

  26. Make sure somebody takes a screenshot of this, because it will surely disappear when the temps start falling.

    1. Put some barely non-libertarian comment on here and Hihnler will snap a pic on his 35 mm camera.

  27. We could cut GHG emissions by 50% by eliminating the EPA.

  28. And these idiots spend tax money on these ‘studies’.And Ron reports it like its news.What’s next,Ghost Hunters?

  29. You know, we all mock this, but the progs won’t.

    What’s amazing is that even with all the propaganda, most Americans still don’t really care. At all.

    1. Is it an example of American voters not being dumb as commonly depicted, the propaganda being so disconnected from the reality people see everyday, or people pay attention to politics so little that they barely notice it?

      1. Most Americans live lives of quite desperation.

  30. So if the world does not cut back significantly on greenhouse gas emissions

    Well, “the world” ain’t going to.

    So …

    There we go.

  31. The maps are not perfect representations of projected climate, as other factors such as humidity are not included, but they do provide a way of visualizing the magnitude of possible changes in the summertime conditions of the future

    Right. I’m still waiting for the jet-packs that they promised us.

    Besides, did the EPA take into account that they’re full of malarkey into their model?

  32. great idea!
    Lets ignore science, ecology, weather mapping predective technology, climatologists, engineers, PHD’s, chemists, astronomers and oceanic biology, as well as the obviousness of the weather changing, and we shall say its a liberal plot to do….. something. (fema trailers? walmarts as concentration camps? Obamas 3rd term?)
    yeah, thats the ticket..

    Its either that, or we have to accept some responsibility and make some changes, but, I mean, thats REALLY hard!
    SO, lets blame… OBAMA! and ignore the science, just as we all KNOW god made everything in 6 days, 6000 yrs ago, and He is perfect, therefore, his creation must be perfect, too.

    1. Believe it or not, Ron is more on your side than most of ours, and I think that surprises him too.

    2. great idea!
      Lets ignore science …

      The problem is that people who actually look at the science (that don’t have a financial interest) have found it to be lacking. With eighteen and a half years of no warming only an idiot would parrot this nonsense.

      … as well as the obviousness of the weather changing …

      You idiot, climate has always been changing. It would be unusual if it wasn’t. Perhaps you should enroll in a geology class and actually learn something about the earths constantly changing climate.

    3. I have looked at the science. Climate change is happening, but it doesn’t look like a threat any time soon.

      More importantly, the policies climate change activists and politicians are proposing are ineffective. Between adopting an ineffective policy that risks seriously harming the global economy and doing nothing, the rational thing is to do nothing.

      So, why don’t you stop “ignoring science” and actually start looking into it?

    4. Considering you’re denying the Holocene Climate Optimum of about 6000 years ago, I find your comment very amusing.

  33. Where is the EPA gonna get the budget to move the states around like that? And do they have the authority in the Constitution to do that? If Illinois secedes before 2100, will there be a place for it in the world?

  34. The Paris Carbon Confab is make-or-break for the Church of Carbontology, and the coordination of the marketing campaign between the EPA, the New York Times, the UN, the NOAA – even the fucking Pope – building up to Paris (and when checks might get handed out!) is so goddamned blatant.

    Who do they think they’re fooling with this shit? Carbon Doom is Hillary Clinton – everyone has an opinion already, especially in the ‘problematic’ United States with it’s irritating Constitution in regards to treaties and such.

    I’m going to laugh that much harder than I already do at the stupid bastards when Obama somehow – just like Copenhagen in 2009 – puts the cherry of humiliation on this shit sundae of a ‘carbon summit.’

    Obama being his clowny incompetent self is best defense against his own ambitions. I just hope we can make it to January 2017 before the Chinese declare an ADZ over Hawaii.

  35. Trees store carbon, woodchippers destroy trees. Ergo, it is all our fault. Woody Woodchipper only sounds adorable.

  36. On what is the EPA basing these absurd claims? Totally bogus junk science.

  37. Do you know when you lose the argument? When you resort to calling your opponent nasty names

    EPA Chief: ‘Climate Deniers’ Aren’t Normal Human Beings

    “But in any democracy, it’s not them [Climate Change deniers] that carries [sic] the day,” McCarthy said. “It is normal human beings that haven’t put their stake into politics above science. It’s normal human beings that want us to do the right thing, and we will if you help us.”

    Later on she had to rush to the hospital to close that enormous bite in her tongue.

    1. Gina McCarthy? Any relationship to Joseph McCarthy? They seem to be thinking alike. Maybe it runs in families?

      1. Formerly Gino McCarthy?

    2. She’s right.

      Normal people STFU and believe whatever their bettors tell them to believe.

  38. That can’t predict the weather tomorrow….nevet Fucking ming 2100. Fucking green socialists need to be spayed and nuttered early and often.

  39. Even if true, why would that be a bad thing?

  40. In A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court, the Boss came across a charlatan who described what other people were doing — as long as they were far distant and his accuracy (or lack thereof) couldn’t be checked. The EPA, like most eco-apocalyptics since Paul Ehrlich repeatedly embarrassed himself, have learned from this lesson.

  41. Predictions are difficult, especially about the future. As it stands today, the climate models cannot even predict the past. Human forcing of climate may be a problem, but we don’t really know. Richard Lindzen may be correct that environmental responses may largely mitigate CO2 effects.

  42. And, they’ll be growing tomatoes in Alberta!

  43. Ronald Bailey is billed as a science reporter. Does Reason therefore believe that this shit is science?

  44. The US could stop *existing*, and it wouldn’t stop the rest of the world from utilizing natural petroleum products to drive their economies.

    Unless Mr. Bailey is willing to go to war with the world to stop them from using electricity, the good money is on adaptation, not prevention.

  45. Why not just plant trees?

    And then there is this:


    Natural cooling of the Sun will not be enough to save Earth from global warming, warn scientists

  46. Google pay 97$ per hour my last pay check was $8500 working 1o hours a week online. My younger brother friend has been averaging 12k for months now and he works about 22 hours a week. I cant believe how easy it was once I tried it out.
    This is wha- I do…… ?????? http://www.Wage-Report.com

  47. I’ve seen Indiana over 100 degrees in the summers of the 1960’s but it wasn’t called “global warming” then, it was called Summer.

  48. A while ago I read a prediction that my home state, Missouri, would have the climate of Arizona.

    So that means millions of people will start moving here, like they did to Arizona?

  49. pure BS

  50. Does this mean Bobby Jindal will be Mayor of Chicago ?

    Epic Geography fail on Ron’s headline writer: The hat trick here is that southernmost Illinois and northernmost Louisiana are only a few degrees of latitude distant–

    The last century of climate change may have turned Delaware into Maryland , but nobody seems to have noticed.

  51. I am so excited! I will be able to stay in live in a houseboat above what used to be Florida! Awesome!!

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