Republican Party

Increasingly Likely: GOP Takes Senate

Not looking good for the Donkey Party.


All three major election forecasting models saw an uptick in the likelihood of Republicans winning the six seats they need to retake the Senate majority over the past week, movement largely due to the party's strengthened chances in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa.

The most bullish model for Republicans is Washington Post's Election Lab, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76 percent chance of winning the majority. Leo, the New York Times model, pegs it at 67 percent while FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans with a 60 percent probability. A week ago, Election Lab gave Republicans a 65 percent chance of winning the majority, Leo put it a 55 percent and FiveThirtyEight had it just under 55 percent.

All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.).  That would net Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the majority.

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  1. Yes, I completely agree, the AGOPALYPSE is coming to Congress. Lovely. Only, what will they do with control of both houses? Even in 1994, where some real cojones were displayed for a while, it didn’t take long until most of it was business as usual. And we can’t afford that shit anymore, see.

    I’d be thrilled with an aggressive and totally administration-stopping Congress. Won’t happen, but it would be nice.

    1. There is three things that will happen.

      1. Harry Reid will no longer be able to go nuclear and cram the government with lunatics. They are already planning on last retard fest for the lame duck session of Congress. Honestly, at this point, I wouldn’t give Obama a single judge or appointee after January. He and Reid have raped the advice and consent process so badly they don’t deserve anymore.

      2. Reid won’t be able to keep popular but embarrassing bills from coming to a vote in the Senate. So that will force vulnerable Democratic Senators to either case unpopular votes or make Obama veto “bipartisan” bills. They are dreading that.

      3. The Senate along with the house will now be free to investigate the living fuck out of Obama. To give one personal example, my office alone has brought in two political hacks in anticipation of increased congressional oversight expected if the Republicans take the Senate. Honestly around here it feels like a “when” not an “if” amongst the people who usually know these things.

      If nothing else, Obama has admitted that the Republicans taking the senate will make his last two years in office “unbearable”. Anyone who doesn’t find that a compelling reason to hope for a Republican takeover has no heart.

      1. Harry Reid will no longer be able to go nuclear and cram the government with lunatics.

        Oh, I wouldn’t worry too much about that. I’m sure John McCain is already lining up a “gang” eager to demonstrate their bipartisanship by passing whoever the President wants.

        Reid won’t be able to keep popular but embarrassing bills from coming to a vote in the Senate.

        So, in other words, theatrics to provide red meat for Team Red.

        The Senate along with the house will now be free to investigate the living fuck out of Obama.

        Except, to date, the House investigations have amounted to “Are you sure everything you’re doing is okay? Oh, well, that settles it then. Sorry for bothering you.”

      2. Three very good reasons.

  2. I’m sure, even now, Republicans are trying to figure out some way to screw this up.

    You! Start theorizing about the different kinds of rape! And you! Start talking about the importance of teaching creationism in publicly funded colleges! You over there! Get a divorce and then blame gay marriage for the culture’s degradation!


    1. THIS! This fucking this! Opportunity is the crystal meth of the GOP. The greater the opportunity, the greater the likelihood they will fuck it up. But when it comes to something as important as retaking the senate, they will wave the confederate flag, saying there is no such thing as rape, that Genesis should be a science course, and that hitler was not such a bad guy. Believe me: if it begins to look like a GOP takeover is inevitable, these fucking retarded harelips will fuck it up, if it’s the last thing they ever do.

  3. In addition to those five, Iowa is looking very bad for the Dems and chances are pretty good the people of Kansas will vomit and send Pat Roberts’ sorry ass back to Washington. Also, Michigan has moved into a toss up and I find it difficult to believe Hagan is actually going to win in North Carolina. In a group of appallingly bad Senators, she is one of the worst.

  4. Yay??

  5. Well at least the GOP will stand up to Obama and his power grabs…
    Hey stop laughing at me!

    1. Couldn’t help it; I was chuckling before I got to the second line.

  6. Total gridlock. Best practical outcome for libertarians.

    1. ^^ This.

  7. The GOP will inherit the current disasters and the media will blame it on them, even though somehow, for 6 years of the Obama presidency, everything is still the fault of Bush. As soon as the oliphants have a majority, they are going to be eating the shit sandwich. I have little sympathy for them, but the disingenuous media will be infuriating.

    1. So many Americans are so busy blaming the political parties for fucking us all they’re oblivious to the enormous role the media plays in empowering the parties to fuck us all.

  8. The Leftist trolls seem to be more prominent in the last few days and the messaging seems more desperate. I’m wondering if the poll numbers are starting to sink in.

  9. Leftists, socialists, Democrats, progs and communists have nothing to really worry about should the GOP take the Senate.

    The worst that would occur would be a slight slowdown of the country’s leftward trajectory: It will still move leftward, just not as fast.

    1. And that’s fact.

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