Katherine Mangu-Ward on the Death of Intrade

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Credit: Screen cap, Intrade

If you've heard of Intrade, you probably know about the site's impressive record predicting the outcome of the last several U.S. presidential elections. Last November, traders at the online prediction market correctly called every state except Florida and Virginia. In 2008, Intrade missed Barack Obama's final Electoral College tally by just a single vote. Katherine Mangu-Ward explains how the Intrade experiment—and much of the promise of public prediction markets—was soon squashed by overzealous regulators.

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