The auguries of political science strongly predict that the Arab Spring rebellions will succumb to new autocrats in the near term. Sparked by a 2010 uprising in Tunisia, the Arab Spring revolutions toppled dictatorial regimes not only in Tunisia but in Egypt, Yemen, and (with outside military assistance) Libya, while civil war broke out in Syria. Reason Science Correspondent Ronald Bailey applies evidence and insights from political science to conclude unhappily that it is doubtful that any of the Arab Spring countries will soon emerge as stable democracies.
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