Presidents Usually Have Lousy Second Terms, They Also Don't Win With Unemployment This High
President Obama enters his second term

It's bound to come up that while incumbents have an advantage on election day, second terms are awful. George W. Bush's second term will come up (though his third one was better!), Bill Clinton's impeachment, Iran-Contra, Nixon's resignation, and Lyndon Johnson's Vietnam collapse. That sums up a half century of second term presidents. Dwight Eisenhower's second term was okay. It started 56 years ago, and he won re-election with unemployment at 3 percent. In the last hundred years, only Obama and Franklin Roosevelt have won with the unemployment rate above 7.2 percent; FDR had a good enough second term to win two more elections (and isn't that what matters?) Roosevelt, of course, presided over/aggravated the Great Depression.
Meanwhile, the stock market took a dive today.
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America just beamed a message into space: "Hi, we're stupid. Keep your warp drive, post-scarcity technologies, and cosmic philosophy and stay away."
This is not, I hasten to add, a statement that Romney would've been much better. But at least he didn't have a history of sucking as president.
Yer jutht a rathitht!
NOOOOO! Now I'll never get a knife missle!
I know, and I was all set to submit to some AI that pretended to work for me.
Have you tried cementing a battleship into the ground yet?
It's too late, man. They're putting up giant orange cones in space, telling everyone to stay away.
YOU CAN'T CROSS THE CONES!!!!!
That's because they explode. Those guys REALLY want us to stay here.
If a Culture ship does show up, I predict it will be the Is That All You've Got?.
We're on Day Two of this and I am still in Towlie mode.
Go read some Banks. Might as well change your reading habits, because nothing else is changing.
Iain Banks, I assume? I have seen the name on library shelves, but that's as far as I have come.
IAIN BANKS. Try it. I suggest Player of Games as a starter, though I think Consider Phlebas, his first scifi novel, is my favorite.
I've only read PoG and Use of Weapons so far. The twist in UoW annoyed me enough that I haven't gone back to him for a while.
I've read every single Culture novel and you're an idiot if you didn't like Zakalwe's little reveal at the end of UoW. Dumbass.
It wasn't that I didn't like the reveal, it's that he did it in a hamfisted and dishonest way. How'd he get the real one's memories,?
They lived together, had all the same experiences. TRY HARDER.
No they didn't. He walked up the stairs and opened the door to find himself banging his sister? Get the fuck out of here.
you're an idiot if you didn't like Zakalwe's little reveal at the end of UoW
Dude, spoiler alert.
Good point. Attention: if you have not read Use of Weapons, you should not have read the preceding posts.
Ah, the post spoiler notice.
Consider Phelbas is great. Excession is very good as well, if a bit hard to read at first.
Every novel looks at a different aspect of The Culture, though. They can be read in any order, but the order of publication is probably best as they do build do on each other slightly.
"He made a chair out of her! He made a chair out of her!"
Banks is amazing. Highly recommended. He actually welds good ideas with good writing, a rarity in the field.
He's a rarity like George RR Martin, in that his disgusting leftist politics don't interfere with his writing's enjoyability.
It's the same for most creators of entertainment. I love Stross' Laundry novels with an almost fanboyish fervor, but I probably want to straggle him if we were trapped in an elevator and ran out of anything to talk about but politics.
I don't even want to know what "straggling" is in your world, you sick fuck.
It means "to suffocate with dingleberries", you unlettered fool. Didn't you ever read Chaucer?
That's an awful lot of dingleberries.
Takes a special amount of preparation.
He's a rarity like George RR Martin, in that his disgusting leftist politics don't interfere with his writing's enjoyability.
Obviously you haven't read his mainstream books.
If you read the novella The State of the Art, you'll know the answer.
A knife missile is just an Arduino with a knife taped onto it. Jeez, figure it out for yourself.
Fuck, his FIRST term was a failure by any rational measure. His second will be worse fo' damn sure.
All those land mines he laid in the first term are set to go off in the next four years.
The economy is almost sure to roll over again, and even if it doesn't, nobody sees any way for this "recovery" to get better.
And that assumes that he won't be able to get anything more passed, that the status quo just more or less bumps along. If he does get anything more out of Congress, well, everything he says he wants will only make it worse.
And foreign policy? Jeebus, who sees blue skies ahead there? Europe is running out of room, the Mideast is already in flames, and we have President Leading-From-Behind, showing up to every crisis just in time to take the blame.
Interesting that two of the worst presidents of my lifetime--Obama and Nixon--were both reelected.
Liberals felt the same way about GWB.
Yeah, him, too. One thing about this election and that one that comes to mind is that the losers were both from the Northeast.
After the bush administrations, the clinton administration, and the Obama administration, I no longer count tricky dick as the worst president in my lifetime. Watergate didn't have a body count.
-jcr
No, but Vietnam did. And a lot of boomers still blame him the most for it. (I know, I know.)
is Obama going to complain for the next four years about the mess he inherited?
Of course. it's still Boooshes fault.
I meant the mess built in the most recent four years. Obama has never held himself accountable for anything. Now would be a good time to start. Then again, santa and unicorns are nice illusions, too.
of course he won't take responsibility, because he didn't make a new mess he was sorting out the old mess so he can really clean it up now.
Forward!
.... To the Past!
Dang. FDR got elected to 12 years blaming Hoover & capitalism.
Obama has a ways to go before he reaches FDR levels of awfulness.
Does he?
He still has to start putting people in camps.
Don't think that aren't contingency plans for this! (Of course had the Romniac 5000 managed to pull it off last night these plans would have been in place as well.)
Gitmo?
Maybe. But the point is, if things get better or show no signs of improvement, it will be because of the failures of free markets.
The problem is that he's standing on the shoulders of FDR, Johnson and Bush 43. All of these statist catastrophes are cumulative.
Doesn't matter, the narrative of the Bush years hung over this election just like it hung over the 2008 election. To the middle of the road, low information voter who doesn't have any real principles when it comes to politics, the perception of Bush's role in the economic collapse was far worse than anything that has happened under Obama. Obama successfully linked Romney to Bush, and the moderate voters that Romney needed to win went with the devil they know.
If you want some lulz, ask them exactly how Bush caused the crash and the subsequent years of stagnation. It's comical.
Duh! Tax cutz for da rich and warz.
Of course, when Obama does the exact same thing it means the economy is coming back
By openly encouraging the 'Gubment fueled housing bubble and supporting Greenspan's easy money policies and "financial innovation" that turbocharged it.
Just sayin' 🙂
I am not worried about him getting anything passed through the House, but if he unleashes executive orders and the regulatory rule making, then we are gonna be in a world of hurt.
If?
His first term was abominably, skull-fuckingly awful, and now we're in for a second dose of the petty despotism he and his asshole lackies are such fans of imposing. Fan-fucking-tastic.
Only a leftist could win after fucking up so spectacularly on his first go.
Or George W. Bush.
To be fair, I wouldn't call Bush's first term a "failure." The Economy was good the the wars didn't look like they would be going 8 years later....
It wasn't good from a Libertarian Point of view... but the economy was not in the shitter.
so the nation voted for the status quo and yet, a good many folks expect change. How does that work?
That would seem to be a complication.
He won't have to worry about racists not electing him again. You'll see.
In the last hundred years, only Obama and Franklin Roosevelt have won with the unemployment rate above 7.2 percent
The economy improved dramatically during FDRs first term so that's hardly analogous to the US situation today.
Obama is literally the worst performing president to ever get re elected.
I blame racism.
One of the most horrible ways to spit in MLK's face is voting a man into the Presidency not based on the contents of his character, but on the color of his skin. Way to go, people.
Yet if you point out this irony you're accused of being racist.
Of course the question will be, since the GOP's only policy goal--denying Obama a second term--failed, whether they will spend the next 2?4 years behaving the same way just to be assholes.
My prediction is that the GOP is too calcified in its ideological and demographic identity to start compromising and accomplishing things now, and that as a once great American political party vanishes from history due completely to stupidity, the more modern governing consensus that is taking its place will continue to gain traction in public sentiment, leaving Obama to do what he can with a House full of teabagging halfwits, and President Hillary to solidify the work of making America approach the living standards and standards of justice that other advanced democracies achieved decades ago.
1/10. Needs less retard.
Decades ago.
You're right. 0/10. Incurable. Kill it with fire.
Don't. Fucking. Respond. To. It.
yes, decades ago, when other people's money was in much bigger supply. More recently, however, those same democracies have backslid. But Tony's eyes are closed while he sucks Obama off.
I disagree. Obama's are closed, but TONY concentrates on the little smile on O's face, knowing in his heart that O loves him, really loves him, and the O spunk he slurps down fills his being with a warm glow.
I do have to say that a Progressive wistfully pining for a One Party State is a great* image
*vomit-inducing, I mean
Not at all. We'll still have two parties. They may even call themselves Republicans and Democrats. But the political center will move to the left on a lot of issues--that's demographic reality. Those of you who support economic fairy bullshit may still win some of the debates as long as it's decoupled from anti-minority, anti-immigrant bullshit. The point is the GOP can't win the presidency ever again unless it finds a way to make itself a plausible choice for people outside of its old, white, male base. This is me hoping for two real parties.
Sock off, fuckpuppet.
Nice. Almost missed that one.
Blacks have suffered the worst during this recession/"recovery", and hate to break it to you but deportations are at record highs under Obama. Yet, idiot sheeple like you still voted for him.
No, deportations are not at an all time high. The way they count deportations was changed. Now if the BP catches someone swimming the river and sends them back, it is counted as a deportation. Until Obama those were not counted as deportations.
Just like the unemployment and cost of living numbers are jerry rigged to get a specific outcome, so are these deportation numbers.
This will never happen, but with immigration reform off the table, the only issue left that could accomplish this would be to end the drug war.
I don't worry, Tony, as I know we will win in the end. You looters are just about out of other people's money, and the walls are closing in. If the electorate won't discipline you, the bond market will.
^^^ Nice ^^^
Facts. For The Win!
You know who else had a One Party State?
Alice Cooper?
The United States?
George Clinton and The Parliament of Funk?
You mean the ones suffering massive unemployment and insolvency?
The socialists replacing the austerity-favoring market-worshipers who have been running Europe will fix that.
I see you're a fan of the Fourth Reich.
-jcr
By austerity favoring, you mean tax hike favoring, correct?
And Hollande has accomplished zilch.
Meanwhile, in reality word, the Troika is demanding more cuts from Greece before handing over bail out cash.
Half of austerity is tax hikes. Just not in this country, where half the political universe believes in magic.
A s s H a t...my gay brother...I'm on your side now! I know when I'm beaten!
So where do I sign up for all the free shit?
where half the political universe believes in magic.
Your half.
Obama's proposed tax hikes would generate 70 billion.
Meanwhile we are spending over a trillion per year over budget and already owe over 16 trillion.
That 70 billion doesn't even cover the interest payments on our already accrued debt.
OK, you started out pretty decent, then you rushed down hill in the close.
So, the Living will envy the Dead?
We long for the release that death will bring.
and President Hillary to solidify the work of making America approach the living standards and standards of justice that other advanced democracies achieved decades ago.
President Biden, President Biden.
But unfortunately, Tony, you were actually making a modicum of sense, until you got here. Standards of "justice"? What the fuck are you talking about? Oh, you mean we should be imprisoning the employees of the National Weather Service because of Sandy? That kind of "justice"?
He could mean "social justice" which is the opposite of actual justice.
Oh right, legalized rape. That kind of justice. My B.
Unless you are in Sweden, then the "male gaze" is considered rape.
He probably means we will adopt Euro style speech laws so that mean people will be put in camps.
"Of course the question will be, since the GOP's only policy goal--denying Obama a second term--failed, whether they will spend the next 2?4 years behaving the same way just to be assholes."
Since nothing changed hands, the GOP has a mandate to continue being obstructionists.
You didn't lose to ideological rivals GOPers. You lost to simpletons who see you as cartoon villains:
BEYONCE: 'Take That Mitches'...
On the bright side, you have a future because a story always needs a villain. Just don't rationalize your losses or rare victories as anything deeper than that, and you'll be fine.
I suppose the GOP might listen to reason at some point and stop overtly stressing culture war issues. If it ran almost solely on economics and freer markets, even without the other stuff we want, they'd be poised to take over when the economy continues its downward slide to the point where even our idiots get scared.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P77-0M2Fnyg
Of course then they wouldn't be Republicans.
crap
stop overtly stressing culture war issues
Of course then they wouldn't be Republicans.
Nah, parties change their focus every decade or so. If they want to win, anyway.
Someone out there needs to be the face of fiscal sanity. It's clearly impossible for that to be the Democrats, so there's an opportunity.
Of course, the GOP probably thinks nothing needs to change, as they're astute enough--only just--to realize that the next four years aren't likely going to be boom times.
I doubt it. To quote myself from earlier. The public is Sid Barret now. That spark is gone.
In an alternative universe, the GOP nominated Mike Huckabe, who campaigned on FULL KULTUR WAR RETARD, promised more free shit than Obama and won.
The party that did go FULL KULTUR WAR RETARD, you know, that war on wymins things, won in this one.
You might as well hope the Democrats listen to reason at some point and stop creating new perverse economic incentives. Or for a pony to materialize out of your colon.
Look, it's about winning the elections, right? They shouldn't have lost to a crappy president. But they did. Why?
A weak candidate ran a limp-wristed campaign?
They gave away their best issue when they nominated Romney.
They refused to paint Obama as a failed President. Romney didn't mention Benghazi after he got his wrist slapped by the DemOp media right after it happened. They didn't run clip after clip of Obama making promises he broke, and saying stupid shit.
They didn't hammer home just how bad the economy is. Women, blacks, hispanics, and the young are worse off than the populace as a whole. Everyone is worse off than they were four years ago. But you never heard Romney say that.
Forget the minuscule policy differences, or the fact that we'd have the same TEAM BE RULED policies regardless. They just ran a weak candidate and a weak campaign, so they lost.
I'd have beat Obama like a dog with his record. Over and over again. Shit, I'm not sure I'd have mentioned what I'd do.
A better economy is better for us all.
THIS. Romney never had it outside the first debate. His campaign was pathetic.
Women, blacks, hispanics, and the young are worse off than the populace as a whole.
And yet, Obama broke every record and increased his vote share of each. As they got worse off, they moved towards his policies, not against them.
I know. Maybe they are just too far gone. Maybe the message that this man who claims to care about you and help you is actually hurting you, has actually presided over your decline, has actually done things to make you worse off, wouldn't get through.
We'll never know, because it wasn't even tried.
It doesn't get through to abused wives.
maybe what people want is a fatherly figure in their lives, or maybe just that cool uncle that let's you watch porn and gives you junk food.
No want people want is a kind, benevolent leader, a sort of big brother feature to look out for them...
Look, it's about winning the elections, right? They shouldn't have lost to a crappy president. But they did. Why?
Covered yesterday in part.
The GOP ran Mitt Romney, and it was pretty clear that not only the republican base, but people mildly annoyed by Obama weren't interested, weren't fired up, or simply didn't like Romney. There were clearly other voices in the GOP talking about limited government, and the GOP leadership worked tirelessly to roadblock and throw burning tires in front of any voice anywhere which dared mention limited government.
No, we MUST offer a candidate who has a proven ability to reach across the aisle to the democrats, who better than a former governor of a bluer-than-blue state?
The GOP was warned repeatedly that this wasn't a winning strategy, and all we got was statistics about how an incumbent president with a bad economy, high unemployment and high gas prices was sure to lose.
The GOP wouldn't entertain the notion that it was more than that, deeper than that, told us to fuck off, and they doomed themselves.
You know who could've slammed this election? Cain.
Didn't you get the memo? Nominating a black guy would have only proven that team R is 100% racist.
Slammed it like a woman who wasn't his wife!
Aaayyoooooooo!!!!!
They ran a crappy candidate?
They could also, you know, not throw roadblocks and burning tyres in front of every candidate that mentions limited government.
Romney mostly ignored social issues. He stayed the hell away from any sort of "war on women's" fight. Global warming didn't make much of an appearance in the debate. Still lost.
There's no indication that being straight up "true conservative" or "real libertarian" will turn the GOP's fortunes. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul both lost in the primaries.
Even if the Republicans became more moderate on immigration issues, most Latinos will still vote democrat precisely because they don't like the more libertarian position on taxes, deficit, regulation, etc. At the top of my head, most Latinos support Obamacare.
The nation isn't becoming socially liberal while also growing fiscally conservative. They like big government.
Romney mostly ignored social issues. He stayed the hell away from any sort of "war on women's" fight. Global warming didn't make much of an appearance in the debate. Still lost.
Those were the things that helped him. Culture warz are dead. The GOP has moved to the left on fiscal issues, and the right on Culture War issues and they're getting killed at both ends.
Ron Paul did lose in the primaries, but that was with a GOP party machine actively and aggressively working against him.
Even if the Republicans became more moderate on immigration issues, most Latinos will still vote democrat precisely because they don't like the more libertarian position on taxes, deficit, regulation, etc. At the top of my head, most Latinos support Obamacare.
Mixed bag. I believe that while you may not get 75% of the Latino vote (as Obama got this election), you can pull away a significant percentage. Drop the dems to say, 55% or 60% would be a start. So tip to the GOP: Quit talking about kicking out all the mexicans, it's not working for you.
The Black vote is a bit of a mystery. Bob Dole got 14% when he ran. GOP has been slippingwith blacks ever since.
My point is that being a fiscally sane alternative to the Democrats is a winning position when the shit hits the fan, which will be sooner rather than later. Europe is getting worse, and that will hurt us all the more, since we're trying to be just like them.
Taxes are going to go up, spending will go up, more regulation will completely strangle the economy, and people will demand more taxes, more spending, and more regulation as the free market is blamed.
Until there's nothing left to steal and we're living in a socialist utopia where everyone is equally poor.
It's Rand's world, we just live in it.
But at least he didn't have a history of sucking as president.
I, for one, would have been happy to see Mittens get the chance to concoct such a legacy of sucking. Because that other guy has sucked more than enough for one lifetime. We may come to find he has sucked more than anybody in the history of sucking.
I can hardly wait.
He had a bad first term!
And the Cubs have had a bad century. Wait 'till next year.
America just beamed a message into space: "Hi, we're stupid. Keep your warp drive, post-scarcity technologies, and cosmic philosophy and stay away."
We can just forget about convincing the Vogons there's any reason to NOT demolish Earth to make room for an off-ramp.
I'm keeping my towel with me, just in case.
Based on the crazy dreams I had last night, I think i may already be hitching a ride.
My three cats playing shoots and ladders with cobras.
A YouTube clip of squirrel jugglers batting balls with nunchucks.
I'll have what he's having.
Also, I'm thinking of giving up on my hobby of following politics and instead devote my attention to developing my psionic powers. Even if the results are zero after fours years of intensive effort, it will still be a greater success than following politics.
My character was baffling
A druid wizard halfling
On top of that he was a
Master of psionic powers
Those misplaced 's's. That's all me, BO.
I have thought of that. But I doubt I could control myself with them. Too many people whose heads I would like to see explode.
I had this neat trick I played on my nieces and nephews and younger cousins when they were at an impressionable age to get their total devotion. I would take a Vicks paperwrapper, rub it in both hands to build up the static electricity and then balance it on the tip of my finger. With the other finger I would make it circle around exploiting the electromagnetism. That would convince them of my telekinetic powers and once you are a magic man, you have slaves. Most of them still obey me twenty years later.
That's what Obama did to Democrats.
I've had that feeling he has been copying my moves.
So on the subject of presidential appointments - who gets to be the next ambassador to Libya? I know John Kerry wants to be Sec. of State but, you know, he's John Kerry. So maybe he'd like to go to a nice dry climate for a few years. Get some sun.
I bet they could find a nice slip for that $7 million yacht in Benghazi Bay, too.
I am the 1% !!
New slogan for those of us who voted for Gary J.
PS. Congratulations to to Colorado 🙂
Marijuana is okay, but it's not like they just legalized cocaine or opium dens or anything really fun.
Like whores?
FDR had a good enough second term to win two more elections
FDR's second term was such a disaster Arthur Schlesenger never got around to writing the volume of his multi volume FDR biography that covered those years. The Dems got crushed in the 38 mid terms and much of the New Deal ended up being rolled back. It was a disaster of a term. Only the looming threat of WWII and FDR's promise not to do the New Deal again saved him.
It is possible that Obama could have a good second term. He could reach out to the middle of both parties in Congress and strike a real grand bargain on the budget. But considering the political skills he has exhibited during his first term, that would be like hearing Micheal Cera beat up the Klitschiko brothers.
Good one.
Obama: "Budget? What's that? It's continuing resolutions all the way down!"
"FDR had a good enough second term"
Actually, he had a terrible second term domestically. His one victory--the decision of the Supreme Court to let the federal government regulate the nation's economy via the Commerce Clause--was handed to him. With regard to everything else--the economy, the Court-packing scheme, the "purge" conducted in the 1938 Democratic primaries that failed to purge anyone, the 1938 election itself, which resulted in sweeping Republican gains, not to mention the brief, inglorious trust-busting campaign led by Thurmon Arnold and William Douglas--FDR's second term was a disaster. If Hitler hadn't invaded Poland, or if Britain and France had let him do it, Roosevelt would have retired in 1940 unmourned, and the Republicans surely would have won the presidency.
Jesus Christ Vanneman, you said something intelligent. Did Pro Liberate hack your account again?
That does sound like me--note the gratuitous use of dashes. I think I may sue.
Meanwhile, the stock market took a dive today.
Just wait 'til the mass selloff to beat the Cap Gains increase begins.
And we get full Obmaacare and all of the Dodd Frank regs get written.
It's Bush's fault.
Cato had a piece yesterday that pointed to a likely tsunami of new regulations that the Obama administration has been, in violation of federal law, squirreling away for after the election.
We're going to get hammered, and soon.
Obama administration has been, in violation of federal law,
Really, doesn't it go without saying?
But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. I had won the victory over myself. I loved Barack Obama.
(Beats having rats chew through your face! Amirite, Winston Smith?)
The New America
It's Bush's fault.
Always and everywhere.
How dare people respond to incentives and price signals?
Incentives and price signals are market failures.
We're supposed to do things because they part of The Plan, not because they're good for us. Step outside of The Plan, and your life is not your own.
Because price signals aren't fair!
It's not fair that prices for certain things go up, especially when they are essentials like food and water! That's not fair!
It's not fair that *grrr* rich people can afford things easier than poor people!
It's not fair to women with sick children or to old people when prices for essentials go up! Not fair, not fair, not fair!
And on top of that it is unconscionable that someone would *grrr* profit from scarce essentials! That's just mean and *grrr* greedy!
What we need is *sigh* Top Men in government commanding and controlling the economy. They're not motivated by greed or profit. They're altruists who are only concerned with the common good.
They'll make it fair.
Gee, I wonder if something happened last night to cause investors to lose confidence today. Don't know what it could be though...
It's European uncertainty's fault.
If Mitt had been elected -- wait for it -- It woulda been WOOOOOOORSE!
A return to the failed policies...
Back to the days of no regulations.
Casino capitalism!
You mean the 47% of people who don't pay taxes and don't invest in the stock market would have lost confidence in the stock market?
I'm betting gun sales are starting to climb, though.
So what's the word out on the street? Since Obama won his second term, are we still a post-truth country torn by racism?
Meanwhile, the stock market took a dive today.
SHRIKE!!!
What the hell man i put all my money into the stock market cuz Obama was going to win and help out wall street for another 4 years?!?!?
That looks like its gonna be good dude.
http://www.post-anon.tk
Uh hello, Dubya's first term was WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY worse than his second term and that's saying a lot.
Clinton's second term was better than his first, IMO.