Join Us as Reason Tweets 2012 Election Night!

Tomorrow night, the Reason staff will be live tweeting as results roll in from around the country. Join us at Hit&Run to celebrate the the last gasp of Election 2012. We'll get started here at 7:30 p.m., as voting wraps up on the East Coast. 

No drinking game for this one: Drink in despair if your guy loses, drink in triumph if your guy wins, drink to remember, drink to forget. Do what you gotta do to get through the night.

Comments

[Pro Libertate]

No, there is a drinking game. Drink five shots if America loses.

[Fist of Etiquette]

Stop being so dramatic. Your water will still run, your lights will still turn on, your phone will still ring, your retirement will still-

Well, your utilities will still function.

[Lord Humungus]

...for now.

[db]

We'll be sure to hide our well and refinery underground.

[Pro Libertate]

It won't be America's final loss, no. Just another little defeat in a long line of defeats for this country.

[anon]

It won't be America's final loss, no.

Maybe true, but it could definitely be the catalyst that preludes the final loss.

[Pro Libertate]

One of these little defeats will be, if we keep having them.

[Ed]

*Offer not valid in parts of New York and New Jersey

[CE]

Drink whenever some TV network calls a state with less than 2 percent of the votes counted.

Drink whenever you hear the word "battleground".

If you voted for Obama, drink whenever Romney wins a state. If you voted for Romney, drink whenever Obama wins a state. If you voted for Johnson, just down the bottle and turn off the TV.

[LTC(ret) John]

Are you drumming up business for your local ER?

Those will put people out in no time flat.

[Episiarch]

PASS

[Bee Tagger]

Drink in despair if your guy loses, drink in triumph if your guy wins, drink to remember, drink to forget.

Also, pour a little out for Lucy.

[MJGreen]

Guys and gals, I really can't take it any more. I'm having heart palpitations, I feel sick to my stomach, I think I may have an ulcer.

I'm really, really afraid that some statist fuckface is going to be elected President tomorrow.

[Pro Libertate]

It's not paranoia if they're all out to get you.

[db]

It's so freaky, I keep having nightmares and visions, my cats run away from me, and even my Reiki healer has noticed something wrong. If statists win tomorrow it'll be such a blow, i can't even.

[nicole]

No, I can't even!

[anon]

Well, there's a 100% chance that some statist fuckface is going to win tomorrow, with both major parties getting about 98% of the vote.

[Lord Humungus]

No thanks - I'll be watching Evil Dead 2.

backup film: The Cincinnati Kid - which I've never seen before.

[db]

I watched EDII on Friday. I think I will tune in tomorrow for some salty ham tears.

[Voros McCracken]

Evil Dead 2 is legitimately in my top 5 movies of all time list. Pure brilliance.

[Joe M]

The only thing we'll be drinking tomorrow are salty ham tears.

[Pro Libertate]

If one were to invent a drink called the Schadenfreude, what would be in it?

[Paul.]

Cyanide.

[Pro Libertate]

I'm not sure that makes sense. It's about enjoying the suffering of others.

[Paul.]

Oh, I thought it was a drink we'd serve to others. Never mind.

[Pro Libertate]

No, that's the Backpfeifengesicht, though I advise against actually poisoning recipients.

[Rasilio]

In that case Beer since it is the most likely to cause severe flatulence

[Lord Humungus]

salty tears
a dash of bitters
Irish Whiskey
sour lemon garnish

[Pro Libertate]

AND TEQUILA!

[hamilton]

Sorrow always includes tequila.

[Francisco d Anconia]

I find sorrow is usually CAUSED by tequila.

[hamilton]

There used to be a Mexican restaurant in Worcester that had a cool placemat about how to drink tequila.

Step 1: Get a bottle of tequila, a shot glass, a lime, a knife, and some salt.

Step 2: Cut the lime into quarters.

Step 3: PUT THE KNIFE AWAY.

[Lord Humungus]

Tequila makes me want to punch someone.
Gin & Vodka makes me feel detached but clever.
Beer makes me social and happy until the headache starts
Red Wine makes me mellow.
Whiskey makes me puke.

[Lord Humungus]

too much Whiskey that is...

[Joe M]

Shouldn't it have a German ingredient?

[Kaptious Kristen]

Jaegermeister, Goldschlager and Beck's. Give some to your most hated enemy and watch them puke. Voila! Errr...Hier! Instant schadenfreude!

[Pro Libertate]

See my comment above--that's the Backpfeifengesicht.

[Paul.]

See, I'm not the only one. I saw Schadenfreude drink as something you'd serve to others. Or is that the Revenge drink? Or is Revenge a dish? Crap, I'm all confused now.

[Pro Libertate]

Schadenfreude is all about your taking pleasure in the suffering of others. That suffering will be provided without you going to the time and expense of serving drinks of questionable legality.

In other words, what drink goes best while experiencing schadenfreude?

[Dagny T.]

A nice Chianti?

[Pro Libertate]

And some fava beans? Perfect!

[Kaptious Kristen]

Well, then. Orange Crush and vodka, of course.

[Paul.]

Well, then. Orange Crush and vodka, of course.

Wait, shit! I change my vote. Purple Drank!

[Voros McCracken]

The blood of children!

[Paul.]

In other words, what drink goes best while experiencing schadenfreude?

Cyanide.

I can finally die knowing my enemies have suffered.

[The Immaculate Trouser]

Earl grey, hot.

[Kaptious Kristen]

Can't Schadenfreude occur as a result of Backpfeifengesicht?

[Pro Libertate]

Indeed. All German emotions are related.

[Kaptious Kristen]

Ja. I know this because I am pretty close to being a full-blooded Kraut, and all I feel is anger and the need for revenge.

[Pro Libertate]

And the need to reunify with France. Yes, I am familiar with that emotion, even being a mere half-German.

[LTC(ret) John]

Bombay Sapphire Gin - it tastes like recrimination!

[hamilton]

You don't wanna try Rangpur then. It adds a veneer of haughty colonialism to the picture.

[LTC(ret) John]

No, no, that sounds perfect!

[mr simple]

Something that makes you very gassy and smelly? It only works if drank in public and you enjoy the smell of your own farts.

[John]

Bitters (for bitter tears)

Irish Wiskey (Because the Irish never win at anything and only take solace in the failures of others)

A slice of persuitto (for salty ham tears)

Orange Juice for the sunny day of someone else's misfortune.

[Ska]

Whoa, I can almost imagine the taste of a prosciutto infused vodka. And it sounds superb.

[nicole]

Now this has got me thinking that the best Schadenfreude drink might be a cocktail I had the other week involving lapsang-inflused tequila and a bacon rim...

[Paul.]

Life is a drinking game.

[db]

I won this past weekend.

[hamilton]

At least the debates were good for laughs. There's just too little out there to depend upon for lulz on election night itself. We'd need some reassurance that the reason staff could keep us well entertained. Without a drinking game, well, if you're not rolling out some kind of dance-off or maybe a farting contest then I'm going to have to go with a Prisoner marathon.

[Paul.]

I'm going to watch Man on Fire. I'm Denzel Washington, the kidnappers are politicians, and Dakota Fanning is my liberty and product of my labour.

[Pro Libertate]

The most appropriate film is the original Planet of the Apes. Time the final scene with the announcement of the winner of the presidential race, so that you can say, "You maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell!"

[John]

No. Brazil.

[Pro Libertate]

That's too fucking appropriate.

[LTC(ret) John]

Seconded.

[Paul.]

Yeah, and I mean too appropriate. I don't need to be reminded of how bad things are by being shown exactly how bad things are.

I mean, didn't we just have a thread where someone was fined $4000 because they didn't fill out a 27b-6?

[LTC(ret) John]

"No drinking game for this one"

Rubbish - I have a bottle of brandy standing by - I'll flip between local and MSNBC coverage - wild hyperbole gets a tip o' the glass, as does each walked back prediction!

[db]

I'm thinking of holding out until a concession speech happens.

[hamilton]

You're gonna stay sober for a week?

[MJGreen]

I'm not sure how to spend my night. I'm considering watching either Duck Soup or A Face in the Crowd, depending on whether I need a laugh or something to flame my righteous anger. I haven't seen either yet.

[Enough About Palin]

"A Face in the Crowd"

One of the best films ever. They made great films from about '55-'59.

[John]

Lee Remick for the win.

[Kaptious Kristen]

North by Northwest, 1959. Yep.

[anon]

Tomorrow is definitely a whiskey night.

Wednesday is going to be a very looong day at work.

[John]

Social Distortion is playing the 9:30 club. I am very tempted to go.

[Kaptious Kristen]

Holy crap -I saw them play the 9:30 Club back at the original venue on F St. Memories...

[John]

I like them a lot. My only concern is how many drugs has Mike Ness done? Can he even sing or play anymore? A punk band that is going on 35 years together gives me pause.

[Kaptious Kristen]

The squeeze tells me The Meatmen are still going strong and play a good show, so perhaps Social D is of the same ilk?

[John]

yeah. The Rolling Stones are reported to have given a great show in Paris last week. No matter how many drugs Ness has done, it isn't what Kieth Richards has done. I am tempted to go, except I would have to go alone. My wife hates loud concerts and I am sure this one will be loud.

[hamilton]

Had 2 friends go last week. Said it rocked.

[John]

I may have to risk divorce and buy a scalped ticket and go to the New Jersey show.

[Paul.]

I get the impression those guys are clean now.

[Ska]

I saw Social D play a few years back and they still rocked. We were a bunch of 30 and 40 somethings moshing (nothing like some middle-aged moshing), and it was all around good fun.

[Restoras]

I'm going to watch R30 and Snakes and Arrows Live instead.

Actually, I think I'll watch The Wall.

[John]

Just watch the Obama concession/acceptance speech, mute it, and play Run Like Hell.

[John]

http://dyn.politico.com/prints.....C17F5951A4

Politico gives a list of the precanned talking points if Obama loses. He lost because...

Obama threw it away in Denver...

The Bush economy killed him...

It was the second-term vision thing...

Citizens United, the super PACs and the Koch Brothers did it...

He lost for a noble cause: national health care...

It all comes back to race...

The failure of liberal policies had nothing to do with it. It all comes down to a racist tea bagging electorate that just wasn't worthy of such a great man.

[Paul.]

And if Obama wins?

[John]

He is the black messiah and America came together to repudiate the racist tea Bagging Republicans and give him a resounding mandate.

[John]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....ds-newsxml

Someone leaked Romney's internals to the Daily Fail. Ahead in by small margins in Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and even in Wisconsin, Ohio and PA.

Virginia and Florida considered to be dead winners.

[LTC(ret) John]

Hey buddy - if I get a link to the Daily Fail, I don't want any polls - maybe a pole with Bar Rafeli wrapped around it - just chicks and weird stories!

[John]

Have some Kate Upton on me

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvs.....monds.html

[anon]

You can wrap Bar Rafeli around my pole any time.

[T o n y]

Romney's internals, I've heard it reported, have been making just the type of arbitrary assumptions you accuse most of the polls in the observable universe of making. They think all the polls are underestimating Republican enthusiasm. But Pennsylvania has not had Romney leading in more than 50 straight polls.

The science of polling has only gotten better with time. Something will have to have gone really wrong in the polling for Romney to win this election. That's certainly possible (Nate Silver says the question keeps him up at night). But we do have lots of data and a Romney win can only happen if something is majorly amiss in the entire spectrum of polling. And since rightwingers don't believe in objective reality, their certainty of an Obama loss is not to be trusted, of course.

[John]

Yeah Tony. A major campaign that runs on a half a billion dollar budget is going to have flawed polling. They wouldn't want to know reality so they could plan or anything. They would run polls that tell them what they want to hear. Meanwhile the media, who don't have the money to run proper polls and instead rely on bargain basement public polling firms, would never have said firms tell them what they wanted to hear. Never.

You are really getting desparate aren't you? But if you love public polls chew on these two.

The Gallup and Rasmussun projection of the 2012 party breakdown among likely voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158.....-2008.aspx

Dem 35
Ind 29
Rep 36

R +1

http://www.rasmussenreports.co.....ffiliation

Dem 33
Ind 27.5
Rep 39.1

or R + 6

You better pray those are completely wrong. Anything short of a D plus six or seven and Obama loses narrowly. An even or R advantage and it is a 1980 landslide.

[T o n y]

How unshocking that you would cherry pick two of the most R-friendly polls out there. Ever heard the term "confirmation bias"? Because you've been spewing it all over the place for days, Mr. I Hate Romney and Will Never Vote For Him. By your own standards, by which you completely dismiss Nate Silver's analysis, you should completely disregard Gallup and Rasmussen since they don't have very good track records in the last decade. Nate Silver's performance completely obliterates them (not that he does any polling himself--the point is averages tend to be more reflective of the outcome than any one poll).

[John]

Since when are Gallup out for Republicans? And look at the links. Both of them give the break down in 08 and 04. And they had the break downs pegged. There is nothing in those numbers that indicate they are skewing things for Republicans.

I think the Rassmussen one is an outlier. No way is it R +6. But the Gallup one seems legit or close enough, especially when you look at the early voting and how far Obama is off 08 and how the House is unlikely to change much at all.

And I am not telling you Romney is going to be a good President. He will be better Obama. But that is beside the point.

I am just telling you, you need to stop kidding yourself and realize that chances are pretty good Obama is going to lose and he might even lose badly.

[T o n y]

Gallup has been more friendly to Romney relative to the other polls this cycle. In the past they've gotten it wrong in the other direction. The point is not that it's biased, but that there is probably something wrong with its methodology considering its relatively poor track record.

You have no factual basis for the claim that "the chances are pretty good Obama is going to lose." All of the facts (those are things based on numbers and data) point in the complete opposite direction, meaning a Romney win would be the far more surprising result.

You need to get out of the Republican information bubble. I realize within that bubble there's a strong belief that there's no possible way Obama can win. But that's just not what the data say. I'll just repeat my request that you not peddle bullshit conspiracy theories on Wednesday should Obama win by the margins expected by the polling averages. You don't get to claim most of the polls are wrong and the election results are the result of a conspiracy if the polls and the results agree. Deal?

[John]

You have no factual basis for the claim that "the chances are pretty good Obama is going to lose.

No facts at all Tony. Just the fact that the Republicans are going to stay even or gain in the House, Romney in every single poll is winning 95+% of Republicans and Independents by double digit margins.

It is math Tony. The only way for Obama to win is for the electorate to be very heavily weighted towards Democrats, as much or more so than in 2008. There is no indication that this true. None. All of the evidence points the other direction.

You need to start considering the possibility that your guy might lose.

[T o n y]

I do consider the possibility. Based on the available evidence, I consider the possibility of my guy losing to be about 13.7%.

[Omni]

R+6 is just as bad as CBS's D+13. That's insane.

[T o n y]

I'm torn between motivations. The way I figure, Virginia's polls close at 7 eastern. If it's called for Obama shortly thereafter, then the election is pretty much over. That means my watch party guests will probably make it an early night and I won't have even gotten drunk. I would not prefer an exciting election, but I do want to get drunk. I am thinking the solution is to add a bunch of stuff to the drinking game, which I was trying to keep minimal given the frequency of certain phrases and the length of the coverage. And yes, John, I will most likely be having champagne.

[John]

You are comedy gold Tony. No one, not even the Obama people think Obama is going to win Virginia. Why do you set yourself up for such bitter disapointment? You do understand how bad tommorow is going to be don't you?

[T o n y]

The RCP average has Obama up by a hair in Virginia, so calling it unwinnable by Obama makes no sense. Silver has a 73% chance of an Obama win there.

Obama losing Virginia won't be the end of the world, especially because it means my party will go on later, as a Romney loss will most probably be the end of the world for him.

[John]

the RCP average is an average of polls that are of dubious value. The national polls are often reflective. But the state polls tend to be and can be off and are at best a SWAG. No one but the campaigns have the money to run decent polls at the state level.

The fundementals are all against Obama, party identification, early voting, independents. To believe Obama is going to win, you have to believe that there is this huge wave of Dem voters out there that is going to outperform even 2008. That is possible. You never know. But it if very unlikely.

[T o n y]

Some of the RCP polls are of dubious value, but the whole point of averaging is to smooth out the edges of outliers. Poll averages have done pretty well in the recent past. And if you ask me, if anything, RCP may be skewed but only because Republican-friendly Rasmussen polls so frequently.

Why does Obama have to outperform 2008 to win an electoral college majority? That doesn't make sense.

[John]

Why does Obama have to outperform 2008 to win an electoral college majority? That doesn't make sense.

Two reasons Tony.

1. Obama is doing worse among independents than 08.

2. Romney is doing much better among Republicans than McCain.

Unless you have a lot more Dems voting than Republicans, Obama loses.

[T o n y]

The recurring and misleading focus on party identification.

Brought to you by your friends at Gallup.

[John]

Indentification matters Tony. When more Rs show up, Republicans win. When more Ds show up, Dems win. The biggest difference between 08 and 10 was the fact that 08 was D +8 and 10 was even.

Identification would matter less if Obama was doing better among independents or if Romney wasnn't getting so many Republican votes. But this year it matters because Romney is getting nearly every Republican vote and is way ahead among Indpendents. That means identifcation really matters this year.

[T o n y]

Party identification is not measured in the US census. It is not a "demographic" in that way. The point of that article, and what I've been trying to get across to you for weeks, is that party ID is highly fluid. If Obama is up in a poll, it likely means Democratic ID is also up in that poll. That doesn't mean the poll is oversampling Democrats, it means more respondents are identifying as Democrats at that particular time. The margin of error remains the margin of error. Only Rasmussen doesn't do it this way but prefers to select a predetermined party makeup.

So obviously if Republican turnout is higher that is good for Romney, but party ID is not a good indicator of the outcome of either a poll or an election; rather the outcome is a good indicator of what the party ID spread is.

[John]

Tony I suspect Peggy Noonan, who is nothing if not a political weather vain is onto something.

Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he's losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he's still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven't been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues. This must hurt the president after the trememdous, stupendous crowds of '08. "Voting's the best revenge"?revenge against who, and for what? This is not a man who feels himself on the verge of a grand victory. His campaign doesn't seem president-sized. It is small and sad and lost, driven by formidable will and zero joy.

I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what's coming, and it's part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.

Think about it Tony. Who is acting like a winner right now? Romney and Obama know a lot more about what is actually going on than you or I do.

[T o n y]

I am truly overwhelmed by the amount of data Peggy Noonan presented in that column. Peggy Nonnan looking out her Manhattan apartment window or down at her naval and seeing all there is to know about the world has been such a great contrition to punditry all these years.

[John]

It doesn't change her point. Who is relaxed and acting like a winner and who is acting desparate? Contrast the way Obama is acting today with how he acted the Monday before the election in 2008. It is not a good comparison. He knew he was going to win in 2008.

[T o n y]

Just please spare us the conspiracy theories on Wednesday John. I've pre-called you out on that bullcrap. Make a note.

Body language analysis does not trump numbers.

[John]

You don't have any analysis Tony. All you have is an hack who is paid to tell you what you want to hear. Whatever gets you through the night. But you need to start considering the possibility that Obama is going to lose tommorow. You don't do yourself any favors denying reality.

[T o n y]

I offer you Nate Silver's methodology and you offer one of Peggy Noonan's trademark ramblings, and I'm the one who lacks analysis?

Describe the way in which Nate Silver is biased. I'm all ears.

[John]

Think about it Tony. A CNN D +11 poll this morning had it a dead heat and Obama still under 50% with Obama losing independents by 18 points. 18 points Tony. Do you really think that a candidate can lose indpendents by 18 points and still win? Do you think the country at large and the battleground states in particular are D +11.

Do you really think Obama will win while Republicans down the ticket in the House win in Blue districts?

Think about it for a while.

[T o n y]

I just trust Silver's analysis over your own, for obvious reasons.

[Bam!]

Silver worked with the Obama campaign in 08, taking in their internal polling data to weight his analysis. The guy is a shill.