CBO: SCOTUS Health Care Ruling Means ObamaCare Will Cover Fewer People, Cost a Little Less

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The Congressional Budget Office's updated score for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act now projects that the law will cover 3 million few individuals and cost $84 million less than previously estimated. The update, released this afternoon, comes in the wake of the Supreme Court's ruling that states can opt out of Medicaid without risking existing federal Medicaid matching funds. The CBO expects that as a result of that ruling, some states will choose not to expand Medicaid, which will mean fewer Medicaid enrollees, but somewhat more enrollees in subsidized private coverage through the law's health exchanges. 

On coverage:

CBO and JCT [Joint Committee on Taxation] now estimate that fewer people will be covered by the Medicaid program, more people will obtain health insurance through the newly established exchanges, and more people will be uninsured. The magnitude of those changes varies from year to year.

In 2022, for example, Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) are expected to cover about 6 million fewer people than previously estimated, about 3 million more people will be enrolled in exchanges, and about 3 million more people will be uninsured. 

On cost, the CBO says:

CBO and JCT now estimate that the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of $1,168 billion over the 2012–2022 period—compared with $1,252 billion projected in March 2012 for that 11-year period—for a net reduction of $84 billion.

This is an estimate of the law's total cost, not its effect on the budget deficit. The CBO still projects that the law will reduce the deficit. Expect the law's backers to point this out, but not to note that the projection still has the same potential for error as it's always had. If everything goes exactly as planned, the law will reduce the deficit, all else being equal. But that's not likely. The deficit score relies on legislative reality, but not political reality

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  1. How can anyone give an estimate that means a damn thing without knowing which states will forego the Medicaid expansion (which costs the feds a ton of money), and which states will forego state exchanges (which costs the feds a ton of employer fines, but saves the feds a ton of premium subsidies)?

  2. I have a mild, almost impersonal curiosity regarding how long it will take for “individuals who don’t participate won’t really face any legal consequences” to “Individuals who don’t participate will face harsh legal consequences, indeed.”

    1. I’m giving an over/under of about, say, 2016.

      Repubs will vote for it under a veneer of “personal responsibility” and stopping free-loaders. And, of course, reducing the deficit.

      Dems will vote for it because that’s what they wanted the whole time.

      1. +Resistance Is Futile (Locutus)

        1. I think that citation is inaccurate. Sure, Locutus used the phrase, but he was just ripping off some earlier Borg.

          1. Are you saying he didn’t build that phrase?

            1. Totally plagiarized. The Borg sent itself a CD.

    2. Best wishes to the bride!

  3. Obamacare has proven to be nothing but a huge cluster fuck of hypothetical outcomes.

    “McKinsey Company has reported that as many as 30 to 40 million Americans could forgo health insurance, with some figuring they can purchase a policy whenever they are facing expensive medical bills.”
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/gr…..-cost-you/

    1. In fairness, it can’t be anything but hypotheticals until the law takes full effect.

      Though I’m sure not long after that, we will be hearing about what PPACA should be accomplishing, if it weren’t for this and that.

      1. Apparently the bar of success is pretty low:
        Obama on the economy: ‘We tried our plan ? and it worked’
        http://washingtonexaminer.com/…..le/2502981

    2. If you’ve got a sickness, you didn’t catch that. Somebody else made that happen.

  4. Obamacare has proven to be nothing but a huge cluster fuck of hypothetical outcomes.

    “McKinsey Company has reported that as many as 30 to 40 million Americans could forgo health insurance, with some figuring they can purchase a policy whenever they are facing expensive medical bills.”
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/gr…..-cost-you/

  5. Obamacare has proven to be nothing but a huge cluster fuck of hypothetical outcomes.

    “McKinsey Company has reported that as many as 30 to 40 million Americans could forgo health insurance, with some figuring they can purchase a policy whenever they are facing expensive medical bills.”
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/gr…..-cost-you/

  6. so is roberts still a commie traitor?

  7. we have what are probably actual agent provocateurs like TELLMOFF.

    And our own John.

    Listed here as a member of the group from DHS involved in infiltrating/spying on you.

    http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/as…..110207.pdf

    “, John K***e (OPS/NOC
    Attorney/Advisor),”

    The fuckbuddies, Sugarfree, Warty, and the guy who can’t be funny without stealing futurama jokes will cry like bitches and claim I’m Mary.

    The only reason I can think of that they’d do that is to protect John, and the DHS program.

    I won’t be posting in this thread again. They most certainly will spam the fuck out of it trying to distract you from the fact that “John” is a DHS employee involved with a spying/infiltration operation.

  8. “And then I waft my farts directly into my face. Don’t be frightened when I pass out. This is normal. When I awaken I will tell you of my dreams. They know the future.”

    1. NutraSweet, should we open up membership in TEAM FUCKBUDDY?

      1. I can’t imagine why not. Who doesn’t want to be a fuckbuddy?

        1. I don’t know, probably Hugh. He’s a bit of a square.

          1. Oh, Hugh is DTFB.

            1. Well, sure, finger blasting. But that’s not fuckbuddying.

              1. Down To FuckBuddy, moron. Read the Urban Dictionary, why don’t you? “Look it up on a typewriter, old man!”

                1. Whimmy-wham-wham-wazzle!

                2. Now you’re just making shit up.

      2. I think she paid you a left-handed compliment and called you funny. At least that’s the way I read it…

    2. And I work for the KGB.

      1. I knew that. You’re on Pravda’s “Where Are They Now?” page.

        And the thing with John is true. Several years ago, I criticized one of his misspellings, and he had me arrested, taken to a tunnel under the White House, and beaten. I kept asking them what they wanted, and they’d hit me and show me a poster board with John’s word on it, misspelled. To this day, I can’t use that word without an emotional breakdown.

        1. Five lights, ProL?

          1. Shit, I saw five lights before the torture. I’m quite suggestible.

  9. What’s with the picture of Hugh Laurie?

  10. This is an estimate of the law’s total cost, not its effect on the budget deficit. The CBO still projects that the law will reduce the deficit. Expect the law’s backers to point this out, but not to note that the projection still has the same potential for error as it’s always had.

    The law’s backers are basically the same as defense contractors and their Congressional enablers:

    “Of COURSE this weapons system/healthcare program will get cheaper over time! Trust us!”

  11. It costs $28/year to provide health care to someone? I’m getting FUCKED for my insurance, then…

  12. What about states that refuse to establish these exchanges? What about people who manipulate their w-4’s so that they can refuse to pay any penalty and not have insurance? What happens if you owe back child support? Who gets the refund if you don’t have insurance: the feds or the mom?

    I don’t think anyone has a fucking idea what is going to happen. My out of the ass guesstimate is as good as anyone elses.

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