Global Temperature Trend Update - April, 2010

Every month University of Alabama in Huntsville climatologists John Christy and Roy Spencer report the latest global temperature trends from satellite data. Below are the newest data updated through March, 2010.

The global-average lower tropospheric temperature continues to be quite warm: +0.65 deg. C for March, 2010. This is about the same as January. Global average sea surface temperatures (not shown) remain high. Go here for the satellite data.

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade

Part of the explanation for the recent uptick in global average temperatures is that an El Nino has been warming the eastern Pacific ocean for the last few months. See below.

Comments

[R C Dean]

Looks a lot like the last El Nino to me.

[Aresen]

Part of the explanation for the recent uptick in global average temperatures is that an El Nino has been warming the eastern Pacific ocean for the last few months.

That. Plus the fact I pissed in the Pacific in December.

[Enyap]

I took a shit in the Pacific once.

[Enough About Palin]

My German Shepherd took a shit in the Gulf once. She was on a long tie-out. The water was super shallow (you could walk out twenty feet and still not be knee deep. She walked into the water and just dropped a load for the fishes.

[Spartacus]

Cool story, bro.

[Douglas Fletcher]

It's all just runoff west of the Rockies.

[Alan Vanneman]

During the last "uptick" (Is that what we're calling it these days? What happened to "kerfuffle"?) I saw two guys walking near Union Station on a sunny day and overheard one of them saying "I love this El Nino stuff! It's so much warmer now!"

[Al Gore]

Uh, we should have a talk sir. We have an "issue". I'm cereal.

[heller]

Not super serial?

[Jersey Patriot]

Is El Nino a new phenomenon? I see a serious spike around 1998 and a serious spike today, but nothing earlier than that.

[John]

No it is not.

[Lord Jubjub]

The warming of the waters of the coast of Peru has been noted by local fishermen for centuries--they are ones who named the Christmastime phenomenon.

But it's only been in the last few decades that meteorologists have realized how far-reaching it is.

[Douglas Fletcher]

I'm almost completely unqualified to comment on any of this.

[Voros McCracken]

This is the internet. If that mattered you could read the whole thing in less than an hour.

[Tony]

Don't worry, there are plenty of experts lurking around this site who can educate you.

Many of them are such accomplished experts in this field that they know better than the rest of the world's scientific community.

[Grandpa Whithers]

You flatter yourself, Tony.

[The Libertarian Guy]

What Grandpa said.

[Brian Sorgatz]

You're not finished yet, Ronald. Where's the self-parodying conflict-of-interest disclosure?

[MNG]

I hear Phil Jones is on Obama's SCOTUS shortlist!

[Episiarch]

I hear Star Jones is on Obama's SCOTUS shortlist!

[MNG]

She is a lawyer, right?

[Episiarch]

Who cares?

[MNG]

Cuz wouldn't we all like to see a strong, sassy black woman giving it to some elitist lawyer during oral arguments?

[Episiarch]

Comedy gold! Let's pitch it to Obama, or should we go to Fox first? Nah, they'll just cancel us.

[ed]

How about that bitch who is representing all of Tiger Woods' bitches? Her glare can peel paint off a bridge, and when she speaks, Satan himself wets his fury legs.

[lunchstealer]

There are no cows in space, duh!

[John]

Star gets my vote, although I think Media would be the better choice.

[The Libertarian Guy]

Like Janice Rogers Brown?

Wait, wait... she's not on the plantation. I forgot.

[MikeP]

What's pretty striking in that El Ni?o picture is the 2 degree warming of the Caribbean right next to the 3 degree cooling of the Gulf of Mexico.

[Nelly]

(I said)
It's gettin' hot in here (so hot)
So take off all your clothes
I am gettin' so hot
(uh uh uh uh)
I wanna take my clothes off
Oh it's gettin' hot in here (so hot)
So take off all your clothes
I am gettin' so hot
(uh uh uh uh)
I wanna take my clothes off
Yeah yeah come on

[domoarrigato]

Hasn't someone tried to blame el nino on CO2 yet?

[R C Dean]

Dunno about that, domo, but I'll bet lots of people have tried to blame the warming effect of El Nino on CO2.

[Maverick]

La Madre should take the blame for El Ni?o's behavior.

[Tony]

It is well-known by now that during the last several decades the number of El Ni?o events increased, and the number of La Ni?a events decreased. The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon, or the result of global climate changes towards global warming.

The studies of historical data show that the recent El Ni?o variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results is that even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend, the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.

Source.

[T]

Nothing like a link to wikipedia for your science. Tasty! And peer reviewed!

[Tony]

My source lists its sources. Feel free to refute the claim with your own.

[Dangerman]

I see your sources, but what is your point, exactly?

[The Libertarian Guy]

Tony's point is the same as Chad's and Gore's:

It's all mankind's fault.

Which is the pussy way to explain global warming, but some folks are just set in their ways.

[Michael Ejercito]

Wikipedia is unbiased all right.

[Maverick]

Nice link to Wikipedia, cabr?n.

[Yonemoto]

"most likely"... So in 9 out of 10 earths it's linked to GW, and 1 out of 10 it's not?

[heller]

^ Retarded

[heller]

Sources:

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (January 1996). "The 1990-1995 El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record". Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1): 57?60. doi:10.1029/95GL03602.

Fedorov, Alexey V.; Philander, S. George (2000). "Is El Ni?o Changing?". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 288: 1997?2002. doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1997.

Zhang, Qiong; Guan, Yue; Yang, Haijun (2008). "ENSO Amplitude Change in Observation and Coupled Models". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 25 (3): 331?336. doi:10.1007/s00376-008-0361-5.

[SugarFree]

Tony's link:

El Ni?o affected pre-Columbian Incas [56] and may have led to the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures.[57] A recent study suggests that a strong El-Ni?o effect between 1789-93 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution.[58] The extreme weather produced by El Ni?o in 1876?77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century.[59]

Those damn Incas and their addiction to oil!

[Warty]

The coolest thing about Peru is that, up on the Altiplano, they give you cocoa tea everywhere you go. The uncoolest thing is the pressure differential between the gas in your intestines and the air.

[sage]

That's the uncoolest thing about a lot of places, actually.

[Warty]

Yeah, but you've never experienced farts at 15,000 feet, have you?

[anon]

Oh man, last time I was in ecuador... so much gas, so much terrible gas. Remember, avoid vegetables and cabbage and salad.

[Mr. J]

Obligatory:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEoHz56jWGY

[Scott]

I think Tony is on to something here (also from wikipedia):
Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790-93, 1828, 1876?78, 1891, 1925?26, 1972?73, 1982?83, and 1997?98

1997-1982 = 15
15 + 1997 = 2012

2012 + Dead Incas = We are already f__ed

[NAL]

Leaving aside the two El Nino years ('98 and '10), according to that data, at least, there has been no statistically significant global warming until about 2002 at which point it plateaued at about 0.3 degrees above normal, then started heading back down but got interrupted by a the 2009-2010 El Nino on the way.

I know there are other data sources, but that data by itself is very, very weak support of a global warming trend.
It does support a slight global warm period, however.

BTW, what was the cool period around '85-86 due to? It looks bigger than the Pinatubo cooling to me.

[MikeP]

Glasnost.

[The Gobbler]

Very good work.

[lunchstealer]

Well, you have to remember that the baseline for this graph is the 79-98 average temperature, so you would expect most of the variations prior to '98 to be from baseline.

[Cosmotarian Overlord]

I see no problems that good tax won't fix.

[heller]

I agree. If pollution does do damage to the property of others, we should punish those who pollute.

[Paul]

Ron, you're the only one still talking about Global Warming. The Obama administration has moved past the issue.

[heller]

Thus, Global Warming does not exist.