Where Have All The Jobs Gone?

Via Instapundit comes this gloss on a Wall Street Journal story about "unexpected" job losses:

ANOTHER "UNEXPECTED" EMPLOYMENT DROP: "Private payrolls unexpectedly fell in March, according to data released Wednesday. Private-sector jobs in the U.S. dropped by 23,000 this month, according to a national employment report published Wednesday by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy firm Macroeconomic Advisers."

UPDATE: That's interesting, they've rewritten the story to take the "unexpectedly" out. Thanks to reader Gerald Gidcumb for the tip.

WSJ story here.

Comments

[Kolohe]

"Unexpected" in the financial press is any news that the analysts didn't forecast (which is a lot of it)

It's not an Obama conspiracy.

[Rahm Emanuel]

That's exactly right. good job, citizen.

[Ken Shultz]

Kolohe's right.

Traders were anticipating this number specifically because it excludes government payroll, especially those who are only temporarily employed by the census.

The Dow has been up pretty big over the last two months with little data to go on over that period...

So, anyway, Kolohe's right it isn't an Obama conspiracy--that report, the one that includes government workers, comes out on Friday.

It isn't a Federal Reserve conspiracy either. ...no matter what Ron Paul says.

[Hazel Meade]

It's not really that unexpected if you consider the negative effects of government policy on the economy.

Government jobs (unproductive labor) are taking resources away from productive private sector activity in the form of taxes.

[Ken Shultz]

It's my understanding that the consensus among forecasters called for a net gain.

Think weather forecast. All the weather services were saying it was going to be sunny, so we were expecting it to be sunny...

When it rained instead, well, that was unexpected given the forecast.

...and whether it tends to rain more in the fall is beside the point.

It's a semantic issue. The Journal was talking about expectations among economists on Wall Street regarding a specific report. It's being taken as if the Journal was talking about something else.

Think "whisper number".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisper_number

[Douglas Fletcher]

Unexpected means anything that any half-conscious knucklehead could have predicted with three beers inside him.

[Ken Shultz]

Even if thousands of jobs had been created that wouldn't change my opinion about anything...

If next month's job's data shows thousands of new jobs being created, what does that mean? That national debt doesn't lead to inflation? That ObamaCare was a good idea? That high taxes don't inhibit growth? Of course not!

Market data is market data. I don't see any particular data point as being particularly indicative of any political stance, and I don't suppose I ever will.

If the economy comes roaring back sans inflation and unemployment ceases to be a problem, the stupid things the Bush and Obama Administrations did will still be stupid and for all the same reasons.

[Rahm Emanuel]

That's interesting, they've rewritten the story to take the "unexpectedly" out.

Nothing interesting or unusual about that, citizen. Go about your business.

[Corduroy Rocks]

Obviously, the evil corporashuns hate America and aren't hiring.

[Hazel Meade]

Someone should force those greedy bastards to hire people.

[SRS]

Nah, just give the unemployed people some money so they can buy stuff and then the corporations will have to hire more people so they can make more stuff so the people who now have money can buy even more stuff, "... et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So let it be written; so let it be done." (From "The King and I")

[J sub D]

Can't be true. Obamanomincs rescued the US (and likely the whole friggin' world) from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depresion.

Next thing you're gonna be telling me is that existing home sales are down and the entire housing market hasn't hit bottom yet.

[J sub D]

I'm serious, we're talking about millions of jobs created (or saved) by the stimulus bill alone. Adding all the TARP cash that the executive can spend any way he feels like, rescuing underwater homeowners, the banks who put them there, auto companies and Odin knows what else, and it must be Morning in America again.

Green jobs! Reformed health care! Life is bowl full of cherries now.

Right?

[Barack Obama]

You forgot fairy dust, unicorns and ponies.

Keep up with the program, citizen.

[Forrest]

You're not very good at this whole logic thing, are you? Just because Obama saved America doesn't mean job numbers will always go up. It could be that more jobs would have been lost in the absence of the Obama-Geithner triumvirate. In fact, it clearly is.

[ORLY]

It's clear for people who think a triumvirate is made of two people, that is.

[cynical]

lol

[Enyap]

and we would have had more terrorist attacks without the Patriot Act and Iraq War.

[Random Dude]

And yet, those jobs come at a linear gain whereas the total cost of financing debt is based upon a power law. Right now, the total cost of funding debt is roughly 3X the initial payment.

So we temporarily saved jobs while inflicting extreme pain in the future and ignoring any of the structural imbalances in our economy. Brilliant!

The ponzi-scheme of monetary expansion + Keynesianism can't last, and it's disingenuous of the left or right to pretend that it can.

[Episiarch]

THEY TOOK UR JERBS!

[Kaiser]

Wait, soon businesses won't have to pay for employees' health insurance. Shouldn't they be hiring? Has the OMB looked at this?

[Tony]

I don't wanna hear any small government assholes whining about the government not doing enough to create jobs.

[West Coaster]

Brilliant!

[bmp1701]

Well, Tony, they could have started a Federal Department of Shoveling up Tony's Drivel. That would have generated a few thousand jobs, all of which would be secure for decades.

[Jordan]

Government can't create jobs. We're whining about government actively destroying jobs.

[SRS]

You can't be serious! Of course government creates jobs! How many people do you suppose Highmark Medicare Services hires to process Medicare claims? Assuming, of course, that most of them go to work in America and aren't outsourced to Bangalore or somewhere. Do all of those people who build F-16s work for free? Or how about the doctors and nurses and janitors employed by the VA Health Services?

[Mike M.]

It can't be much longer before Commissar Obama threatens to take over any company that lays off more people.

[Hazel Meade]

It's their patriotic duty to pay people. Whether they're actually doing anything or not.

[Kolohe]

Of course, Instapundit totally called the 'junkie' economy when the bubble was at its height in late 2006.

http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/63902/

oh wait, he didn't.

[Mike M.]

On the other hand, the new Echo Bubble that has been created and is still expanding (thanks to Barbasol Ben and The Magic Printing Press) is so blatantly obvious and absurd, I don't know how any rational person could possibly believe in its legitimacy.

[Jay]

Is Nick applying for a spot as torture supporter Glenn Reynolds assistant?

[Dave A.]

Didn't they just recently pass that law that incentivizes hiring people? And by that, I mean first firing people so they can then hire people and take advantage of the incentives.

How was this unexpected again?

[Douglas Fletcher]

"Didn't they just recently pass that law that incentivizes hiring people? "

They just passed one that gives a company an incentive not hire more than 49 employees.

[Dr. Frank Leibold]

Where Have All The Jobs Gone?

Frank B. Leibold, PhD. ,July 22, 2010

Increasingly newspaper headlines across America are asking this question.

In addition to cutting jobs due to the recession and to increase profitability, companies are looking overseas to save money in labor costs. According to Forrester Research, over the next fifteen years over three million US service industry jobs and up to $136 billion in wages will move overseas to countries including India, Russia, China and the Philippines. Forrester also notes that 88 percent of the firms said they got better value for their money overseas and 71 percent said overseas workers did better quality work.

A Deloitte Research survey reports that the world's 100 largest financial-services companies expect to transfer about $356 billion of their operations and two million jobs offshore over the next five years. It's not just technology jobs that are leaving the United States. Jobs in just about every sector are going abroad including mortgage processors, claims adjusters, financial analysts, telemarketers and a variety of other job titles.

I believe the US economy has 'absorbed' the current unemployment level through innovation, re-structuring and productivity gains. With 70 million baby-boomers ready to retire the workforce is at its peak to accomplish this. In my view these 15 million underemployed jobs are structurally gone! The Labor Department's DLS indicates that there are six job seekers for each job opening ? a historical high. But there is a more important issue facing future job seekers.

Closing America's Global Skills Gap

Many American companies find themselves ill-equipped to grow because of a lack of skilled workers according 2005 report by the National Association of Manufactures The Growing Skills Gap. Interestingly, the skill gap is no longer in the high technology area but rather in workplace attitudes of dependability, attendance and the basic skills of the 3 R's. But the skill gap is also not just a "large manufacturing company" problem. A 2002 U. S. Chamber of Commerce report Keeping Competitive indicates that 73 percent of surveyed small companies with less that 50 employees are experiencing "severe" or "very severe" problems in hiring qualified workers. The study also indicated that 40 percent of all job applicants had "poor or no employment skills." So those going from high school directly into the workforce (80 percent) don't have adequate global skills.

The accelerating trend towards an increasing number of careers and job changes is then explored which leads to the need for LTCs. Invented Here: The Report on the Future of the South, issued by the Southern Governors Association (SGA) says, "A regions performance in the knowledge economy can rise no higher than the sum of the knowledge of its people." At a recent conference concerning human capital strategies held by SGA, the U. S. presidents of Mercedes Benz, Toyota, and Michelin spoke on their rural Southern workforce. Their factory workers make $60 to 85,000 a year managing computer integrated manufacturing lines that control robots at several work stations. Employees rotate jobs on a daily and monthly basis, meaning that workers need to know how to perform eight to ten different jobs. The skills these workers need to succeed are related to their knowledge and conceptual talents. Success in the new technology-driven economy will require new skills and competencies that allow people to perform multiple assignments; have over a dozen different jobs and five to six distinct careers - necessitating possession of universal portable 'core' competencies.

So, transferable skill-sets, or competencies, have become the new currency of success and future employability. In the near future skills defined as critical thinking, creative problem solving, communication and collaboration (the four Cs) will become even more important to organizations according to a new survey conducted by American Management Association (AMA) issued in April 2010. The AMA recommends that public education merge the four Cs with the traditional three Rs in its curriculum.

To succeed today one and one's organization must be driven by satisfying the changing customer's needs. Your customer may be either external or internal. All organizations need effective and efficient problem solvers who can utilize technology to meet the customer's need in a response time that provides a sustainable competitive advantage through added value and service. In order to perform effectively in today's multicultural society it is important to have a global perspective and cultural understanding and sensitivity. One must be motivated and persistent for the right reasons; realizing that you can increase your motivation substantially to face unforeseen future challenges. Managers must also motivate their organizations towards the same goals. The root of all effective motivation is a healthy amount of self-esteem. Managing one's career to have multiple and varied job assignments, including an international position, will develop the needed skill-sets. A formal career plan, along with feedback from candid and trusted friends for realism, and a mentor to assist you is navigating one's career moves is critical to career success. Finally, living a balanced and healthy life with time devoted to family and outside work activities are now recognized as also essential to life, and career success.

Summary

Despite a $862 billion job stimulation legislation last year the slow and unsteady economic recovery has been jobless. Some claim that the uncertainties of new medical and financial legislation has prevented companies from spending an estimated $1.3 trillion. Others point to moving jobs to lower wage rate countries. I believe that the US economy has absorbed these lower manning levels through innovation, re-structuring and productivity gains. However it's clear that tomorrows jobs will require new competencies that close America's well documented global skills gap. These competencies appear in my new book "The Key to Job Success in any Career" that will be published in October, 2010.

[Dr. Frank Leibold]

Where Are The Jobs:The Untold Story Behind The Jobless Recovery?

Frank B. Leibold, PhD.- July 25, 2010

Increasingly newspaper headlines across America are asking this question.

Almost 18 months ago the $862 billion stimulus bill was passed by congress. The Obama administration claims that 3.5 million jobs have either been created or saved although neither can be substantiated. Yet since its passage another 3 million Americans have lost their jobs! Today we remain at a 9.5 percent unemployment rate-15 million people counting those who can only find part-time work- and the Department of Labor's DLS indicates that there are six job seekers for every available job and 46 percent of those unemployed have been for more than six months ? both all time highs. Just this week new unemployment claims were 464,000. To date it has truly been a jobless recovery!
I believe the US economy has 'absorbed' the current underemployment level through innovation, re-structuring and productivity gains. With 70 million baby-boomers yet to retire the workforce is at its performance peak to have accomplished this. In my view these 15 million jobs are structurally gone and will not return as the economy rebounds!

Yet there is a more important issue facing future job seekers and the US economy that could significantly worsen employability opportunities.

America's Global Skills Gap

"The skills gap is one of the most pressing issues facing America's workforce. Whether the baby boomers choose to retire at the projected rate or not, both situations will require a significant re-skilling of the workforce. The learning profession must take action on the skills gap in order to ensure the readiness and competitiveness of its workforce. Frank has carefully researched the skills gap in his new book. It's an important read for a greater understanding of the issue and what we need to do about it."
?Tony Bingham, President & CEO, American Society of Training and Development

Many American companies find themselves ill-equipped to grow because of a lack of skilled workers according to a 2005 report by the National Association of Manufactures (NAM) "The Growing Skills Gap." And the skills gap is also not just a large manufacturing company problem. A 2002 US Chamber of Commerce report, Keeping Competitive, indicates that 73 percent of surveyed small companies with less than 50 employees are experiencing "severe" or "very severe" problems in hiring qualified workers and that 40 percent of all job applicants had "poor or no employment skills." The US Conference Board (CB), American Society of Training and Development (ASTD), the Society of Human Resource Management (SHRM), President's Council on Competitiveness (COC) and the National Center on Employment and the Economy (NCEE), among others, have documented a widening global skills gap over the past 25 years.

In the near future skills defined as critical thinking, creative problem solving, communication and collaboration (the four Cs) will become even more important to organizations according to a new survey conducted by the American Management Association (AMA) released in April 2010. The AMA recommends that public education merge the four Cs with the traditional three Rs in its curriculum as their members acknowledge the global skills gap.

The cause of these deficiencies is clearly due to a failed US public educational system. In 1989 US Secretary of Education Lauro Cavazos indicated "There are three deficits; the trade deficit, the budget deficit and the educational deficit. The first two can't be resolved until we overcome the last."
In 1999 The President's Council on Competitiveness said it best: "The skill gap among American workers is out pacing the growth of workers, companies and the educational system's ability to deal with it."

Unfortunately future trends threaten to worsen the gap. The productivity loss of 70 million retiring "baby-boomers" with their expertise and educational levels, the drastic increase in diversity- half the workforce will be people of color by 2028 and the accelerating trend towards an increasing number of careers and job changes ("boundaryless" careers), to name a few. America's economic dominance over the past half-century is also coming to an end as we lose our scale, education and innovation advantages. President Obama recently acknowledged this as he indicated "no longer can the world depend on America to drive global economic recovery."

Most Americans are unaware of this growing threat to our standard of living which will affect all citizens. Its dissemination has primarily been among those professional organizations attempting to ameliorate the problem and those companies who are feeling its negative global competitive impact. This lack of public awareness is troubling to me for I believe that any solution must start with strong national support. I hope political considerations haven't shielded the public from this prolonged national weakness?

This is why I wrote the soon to be published book The Key To Job Success In Any Career. My eight years of research have led to the six Lifelong Transferable Competencies (LTCs) discussed below ? which have been scientifically validated by over 40 sources from multiple disciplines. The book provides assessment measures to determine competency mastery. A LTC model is depicted and explained and over 60 suggestions are offered so readers can develop their own LTCs and improve their employability skills in the process. After analyzing the failures of the past 25 years to close the gap the book proposes eight doable recommendations ? both short and long term ? to start the nation on a final path to resolving this persistent, vexing and damaging problem.

The following LTCs are required for any occupation or career and most levels of responsibility. Four were mentioned, although not stressed, in1992 by ASTD, the Secretary of Labor's Commission on Acquired Necessary Skills (SCANS) and the National Skills Standards Board (NSSB). Transferable skill-sets or competencies have become the new currency for success, future employability and closing America's global skills gap.

The Six LTCs

To succeed today one must be driven by satisfying the changing customer's or client's needs. Your customer may be either external or internal. All organizations need effective and efficient problem solvers who can utilize technology to meet the customer's need in a response time that provides a sustainable competitive advantage through added comparative value and service. In order to perform effectively in an increasing multicultural society it is important to have a global perspective with cultural understanding and sensitivity. One must also be motivated and persistent for the right reasons; realizing that you can increase your motivation substantially to face unforeseen future challenges. The root of all effective motivation is a healthy amount of self-esteem. Managing your career to have multiple and varied job assignments, including an international position, will help develop the needed competencies. A formal career plan, along with feedback from candid and trusted friends for realism, and a mentor to assist you in navigating career moves is also critical. Finally, living a balanced and healthy life with time devoted to family and outside work activities is now recognized as essential to life and career success.

Stating it differently, you satisfy your customer's changing needs by anticipating them and then providing a competitive responsiveness with the best comparative value by usually solving value chain problems in a multicultural team-oriented workforce. In order to accomplish this, you will need cultural understanding to be an effective team contributor, manage your career to acquire the needed skill-sets (marketing, problem solving, cultural understanding and facilitation), lead a balanced and healthy lifestyle for the required focus and energy and finally possess the requisite motivation to accomplish all the above. So the LTCs developed are interrelated and work in a process that when followed will result in employees who will not only improve their employability but will begin to start closing America's global skills gap.

Summary

Despite the job stimulation legislation last year the slow and unsteady economic recovery has been jobless. Some claim that the uncertainties of new medical and financial legislation have prevented companies from spending an estimated $1.9 trillion in capital they are withholding. Others point to jobs moving to lower wage rate countries. Both factors are contributors. However it should be clear to all that tomorrows job creation could be hampered by America's workforce skill deficiencies and it will require new competencies that help to close America's global skills gap.

"The Conference Board's research confirms that American business finds new entrants to the workforce lacking in the skills required to be globally competitive both today and for the demands of the coming years. Frank Leibold, in his new book-"Competencies That Close America's Global Skill Gap"- recognizes and analyzes this deficit and offers individuals specific guidance on how to overcome these skill gaps. His advice is important for those just entering the workforce who may find they need skills heretofore unlearned. However, his advice may be even more critical for those more seasoned workers who are challenged by having to reinvent themselves in this new economic reality, where companies are requiring employees to take on more responsibility for their personal and professional well-being?"
-----Mary Wright, Project Leader, Workforce Readiness Initiative,The Conference Board

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Frank Leibold after a distinguished 30-year business career with three multinational corporations-culminating in the position of Group President re-tooled himself and obtained his Ph. D.. Frank then became a nationally recognized university professor of marketing while founding his own global management consulting company. He and his wife reside in South Carolina and spend time traveling to visit and spoil their nine grand-children?two in Australia. His new book The Key To Job Success In Any Career:Developing Six Competencies That Close America's Global Skills Gap will be published by Outskirts Press in October 2010 ? excerpts from which this article was developed.