Campaigns/Elections

The Nader Effect, 2008

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From Newsweek:

According to recent CNN/Opinion Research polls, Barack Obama leads John McCain by four points in a two-way choice among likely Florida voters. That gap grows to eight points with Nader in the mix, along with other minor-party candidates such as Libertarian Bob Barr.

Another sign the Nader effect may have reversed course is how the Democrats are dealing with him this time. In 2004, John Kerry met with Nader to try to dissuade him from running, and party lawyers contested his place on the ballot. This time, the Obama campaign has made no similar effort to obstruct Nader.

Who are the voters whom Nader siphons from McCain? Kevin Hill, an associate professor of political science at Florida International University, says Nader's populist rhetoric appeals to white working-class voters who lean conservative. "It's probably more of a protest than anything else," he says. McCain aides argue that Nader's poll ratings are too low to be significant. But at Nader's HQ, the lack of attention is welcome: instead of fighting ballot challenges, Nader is now contesting 45 states, and his campaign suggests he'll far exceed his dismal total of about 400,000 votes in 2004.

More here.

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  1. About the only thing I’m interested in this election is who gets third place.

  2. Kevin Hill, an associate professor of political science at Florida International University, says Nader’s populist rhetoric appeals to white working-class voters who lean conservative. “It’s probably more of a protest than anything else,” he says.

    Yea, nothing says White working-class Conservative leaning like Ralph Nader, the definitive protest vote.

  3. Boy I sure hope Obama wins tomorrow. God help us all if McBush pulls it off somehow!

    JIff
    http://www.Ultimate-Anonymity.com

  4. The best thing about tomorrow while be the end of the stupid ass “Mc” jokes people like douchebag above like to make.

  5. Remember to gather firewood for Wednesday.

  6. “Yea, nothing says White working-class Conservative leaning like Ralph Nader, the definitive protest vote.”

    I was thinking the same thing when I read that.

    “The best thing about tomorrow while be the end of the stupid ass “Mc” jokes people like douchebag above like to make.”

    QFT

  7. The worst thing about tomorrow will be when Sully takes hostages.

    Meanwhile, Reason still has a chance to offer an intellectually honest counterargument to all or most of my list of tweny non-partisan reasons not to vote for Obama.

  8. Given that this is Florida, I suspect that Nader’s “white working class” supporters are also disproportionately old.

    I believe that the “Get off my lawn!” plank in his campaign platform was a key draw for them. After all, darn kids on the lawn leads to lawn damage and possible erosion, and the remedy requires purchasing fertilizers from chemical corporations. Even worse, those fertilizers might be applied to the lawn by day laborers who are neither citizens nor unionized.

  9. yea, they would seek to destroy my very name

  10. In 1908 Florida only had 5 electoral votes and Arizona and New Mexico were both teritories.

  11. At least Nader isn’t being ignored to the degree he was when he ran for president the 1st time, in 1996.

  12. “Meanwhile, Reason still has a chance to offer an intellectually honest counterargument to all or most of my list of tweny non-partisan reasons not to vote for Obama.”

    I can sense the excitement from here! Why, who in their right mind would pass on such an exciting opportunity?!

  13. At least Nader isn’t being ignored to the degree he was when he ran for president the 1st time, in 1996.

    The thing I can’t figure out is why he isn’t being ignored entirely. How many times do you get to run for prez before you’re officially declared irrelevant and sent home?

  14. Oh, wait. That would pretty much disqualify the entire LP, wouldn’t it?

    Never mind. Their conventions are entertaining.

  15. Could election day signal the end of Ultimate-Anonymity Guy AND Orange Line’s endless self-promospam?

    linkitylinkityblahblahblah

  16. Obama isn’t challenging Nader’s ballot access because Obama predicted — correctly — that Nader would not affect the race in ways he previously has. I doubt very much that if Nader were making noise the Obama campaign would have played its hand the same way. I’ve heard, but not independently verified, that Obama successfully challenged the ballot access of some of his early political foes.

  17. In 2004, John Kerry met with Nader to try to dissuade him from running, and party lawyers contested his place on the ballot.

    And really, of all people Democrats should know this: Never, ever, EVER give Ralph Nader an opportunity to believe there’s a conspiracy against him. Because he’s built a fucking career out of that.

  18. Even worse, those fertilizers might be applied to the lawn by day laborers who are neither citizens nor unionized.

    And driven to the site in unsafe vehicles.

  19. Paul | November 3, 2008, 4:08pm | #

    In 2004, John Kerry met with Nader to try to dissuade him from running, and party lawyers contested his place on the ballot.
    And really, of all people Democrats should know this: Never, ever, EVER give Ralph Nader an opportunity to believe there’s a conspiracy against him. Because he’s built a fucking career out of that.

    Well, GM actually did pay people to spy on him and to try to set him up with prostitutes and the like.

  20. Why the assumption that it is Nader who is siphoning off the votes from McCain? The article does not say those four percentage points went to Nader. Barr (and presumable Boldwin) were in that mix as well. Could it be that a few right leaners are bailing on McCain in favor of a right leaning candidate?

  21. Well, GM actually did pay people to spy on him and to try to set him up with prostitutes and the like.

    I know… and this counters my point how?

  22. I agree, Brandybuck. It seems like the author just didn’t want to bother thinking about anyone whose name he didn’t already know.

  23. My instincts tell me that four percent is an *extremely* optimistic projection for Ralph “Harold Stassen” Nader this year, even in Florida.

  24. Call me crazy, but at this point I also don’t see Nader as a “protest vote”. In 2000, yes. But not anymore.

  25. Also, pathetic list OLS. I didn’t vote for Obama, but the only thing on your list that I would legitimately worry about is the one-party control thing. BTW, isn’t illegal immigration a partisan issue? Just cuz you think the other side is stupid or insane doesn’t mean there isn’t another side.

  26. Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.

    Thomas Jefferson

  27. Brandybuck,

    Yeah, that was my thought when the article avoided mentioning what Nader’s poll numbers actually were. But if the difference is spread out among Barr and Baldwin, this story doesn’t highlight the greatness of Obama’s wily political calculus.

  28. I have a very dear friend who voted for Nader in 2000 but he has racist views toward African-Americans. I haven’t had a political conversation with him lately, but he fits into Kevin Hill’s description and I wouldn’t be shocked if voted for Nader again.

  29. hotsauce,

    I think they were more worried about the Streisand effect than anything else.

  30. his campaign suggests he’ll far exceed his dismal total of about 400,000 votes in 2004.

    400,006

  31. In 2004, Democrats spent over $10 million and countless ‘pro bono’ lawyer hours to harrass Nader petition gatherers, campaign fund raisers and campaign officials. Try googling ‘The Ballot Project’ and you should see several websites and article describing the whole nasty mess. The only way to ‘win’ a modern presidential election to cheat your way to ‘victory’. McCain may be a sleazy, mooching opportunist, but he doesn’t measure up to the sophisticated level of deception and manipulation that Obama does. Obama is the really scary, because he is so good at faking sincerety. He’s better at it than Ronald Reagan. Democrats are a bunch of ballotbox stuffing scumbags and Republicans are a bunch of election stealing lowlifes. I just voted for Nader for the 3rd time and couldn’t care less which phony criminal liar cheats his way to ‘victory’. There is less difference between Obama and McCain, than there was between Gore and Busg in 2000. Presidential elections are a fraud.

  32. One says, “Jewelie has no freaking clue what twitter is and needs to know how people have time for this?” In another, the person says she is “order clothes from china.” As with the Facebook and MySpace profiles, it is not clear whether the Twitter page belongs to the woman alleged to have had an affair with Woods.

  33. Presidential elections are a fraud.

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