Ron Paul Was Right!

They all laughed at him. Then they panicked and went looking for gold.

Gold's huge rally — prices shot up over 8 percent — came as the government moved overnight to rescue troubled insurer American International Group Inc. with an $85 million bailout loan. The Federal Reserve stepped in after AIG, teetering on collapse from losses tied to the subprime crisis and the credit crisis, failed to find adequate capital in the private sector.

Fearing more tightening of credit markets, investors reacted swiftly and began dumping stocks and socking money into gold, silver and other safe-haven commodities. Gold is especially attractive during times of crisis because the metal is known for holding its value.

Gold for December delivery jumped $64.50, or 8.25 percent, to $845 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest trading level since Aug. 29. Prior to the rally, gold had fallen 25 percent since surging to record levels above $1,000 an ounce in March.

"The same market participants who got out of gold are coming back in now. This is the start of an upward move," said Carlos Sanchez, analyst with CPM Group in New York, who predicted prices could climb back to $1,000 by year's end.

I've contacted the Campaign for Liberty for comments from Paul on the AIG rescue mission and the gold price spike, but you'd have to be deaf and blind not to know what he's thinking. Back in the primary, I think Paul surprised Republicans by offering a Rothbardian critique of the economy that sounded pretty good next to the bland "fundamentals are strong"-isms of McCain, Romney, Rudy, and the Sleepy Fred Country Express. But it sounded good because Paul acknowledged structural problems with the financial system, not because he was 100 percent right.

If you want a smart take on the role that gold had in worsening the Great Depression, I'd point you to this paper by Ben Bernanke. Yes, that Ben Bernanke.

Comments

[mike]

gold finished the day about 866, up $85 and off the high of 872 (+92), a one day $ record gain.

[sage]

Sounds like we need more regulations in the gold market.

[Naga Sadow]

So should I sell my gold tooth, yet? I know Joe Kennedy said only a fool holds out for the top dollar but these prices can only go up, up, up!

[Episiarch]

So should I sell my gold tooth, yet?

Yeah, because you still have the one with the diamond in it, so you'll still have some grill. You could buy a lot of blow with the money from that tooth, dude.

[Ben]

I can just picture Ron Paul standing in front of Congress yelling "I told you so!"

[Warren]

I bought gold when it dipped below $800 and doubled down when it dipped below $750. I won't sell till it hits $900. I'll sell half my holdings at 900 and half again at 1200. I'll keep the rest as a hedge against catastrophic global economic meltdown.

[blood sword]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

[jmd]

"Prior to the rally, gold had fallen 25 percent..."

Need I say more?

[Naga Sadow]

I was gonna make a joke about my grill being made of gold, but was worried about old timers not understanding that I was talking about my teeth. Anyway . . .

"In this country, you gotta make the money first. Then when you get the money, you get the power. Then when you get the power, then you get the women."

[Andy Craig]

Rothbardians vs. Friedmanites, Round 4,259

FIGHT!

[Episiarch]

I don't know what you're implying, Naga, but I never fucked anybody over in my life didn't have it coming to them.

[The Golden Bubble]

I'm next!

[Mad Max]

(Apologies to Shirley Bassey)

Gold standard.
It's the stan- standard that we love so much.
Better than Starsky and Hutch.
With a gold standard
You can so easily be taken in
It ain't no sin.

Golden coins he will pour in your purse,
But fiat money brings a curse,
For a golden girl knows when it's kissed her,
It's the kiss of death from

Mister gold standard.
Pretty voters, it's a good time to buy gold
Don't get outsold.

Gold clauses used to be in your contracts,
But it won't be recognized, or it will be taxed,
God Guns and Gold made America great, mister,
Fiat money will give you a blister.

gold standard.
American voters, don't let yourselves be sold
By anything less than gold.

We love only gold,
Only gold.
We love gold.
We love only gold,
Only gold.
We love gold.

(My precious!)

[Naga Sadow]

Look Epi, I only tell you once. Don't fuck me, Tony. Don't you ever try to fuck me.

[Lefiti]

Ron Paul was right about what, fleet-footed nigger criminals?

[Episiarch]

You wanna fuck with me? Okay. You wanna play rough? Okay. Say hello to my little friend!

[libertymike]

I always tell the truth, even when I lie.

[libertymike]

Leftii-

Are you sayin that caucasian criminals are not fleet footed?

[Naga Sadow]

I'm Tony Montana! You fuck with me, you fuckin' with the best!

[Warty]

Scarface sucks. That's all there is to it, and you're all idiots for not realizing it.

[alan]

Leftii-

Are you sayin that caucasian criminals are not fleet footed?

Yeah, Lefttit, get with the pogrom. The world's best golpher is black/asian, the best upcoming basketball player is white, even Chris Rock saw it coming a decade ago. Out of date racist.

[R C Dean]

Sounds like we need more regulations in the gold market.

Absolutely! These kind of speculator-driven bubbles are an affront to the American Way!

[alan]

even Chris Rock

Whoops showed my hand in my own bigotry. Yeah, that one eighth Irish heritage is holding him back. There, I said it.

[libertymike]

ALan-

If my memory is correct, Chris Rock said "the best rapper is white and the best golfer is black". He was referring to Eminem and Tiger, respectively. Didn't he say it at some awards show?

[libertymike]

Epi and Naga-

Okay, time to tell us how many times you guys have watched the movie? Me? At least half a dozen.

[alan]

Your memory is correct. I wanted to throw Hansbrough in there to underscore that those Caucs could be fleet of foot.

[The Angry Optimist]

So we're bragging about gold and how "right" RP was, when gold hasn't even come back to what it was two weeks ago?

I'd be inclined to be very wary about holding gold, because the market could correct this AIG thing very quickly and you're going to be back to the $740/oz. it was 6 days ago.

[shrike]

"the best rapper is white and the best golfer is black"

and

the tallest NBA player is Chinese and the Germans don't like war anymore.

Times are fucked upside down ---

Gold? I am not impressed... The Gold ETFs have been selling the living hell out of gold from $1000 to $800.

The market jolt is just some panic unwinding of those selling positions.

[Naga Sadow]

Warty,

Fuck you. Moving on now.

LibertyMike,

I don't have enough fingers and toes to count that high.

[John C. Randolph]

BTW, Bernanke has admitted that the Fed was responsible for the first Great Depression. I wonder if he'll own up and admit that they're responsible for this one, too?

-jcr

[John C. Randolph]

Ron Paul isn't a genius, and I'm sure he'd tell you himself that he's just a man who's willing to see the obvious and speak up. Of course, compared to his colleagues in congress, he looks like Einstein.

-jcr

[Andy Craig]

Just for shits and giggles, here's Alan Greenspan advocating the gold standard during his Randroid days-

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/greenspan.html

[Loupeznik]

Buy gold for when it's sort of bad. Buy ammo for when it's really bad.

[Paul]

What about the massive drop in the oil markets? There are a lot of investors losing money in this market. If the price isn't propped up, we could see a major collapse in oil futures markets.

[Kwix]

John C. Randolph | September 17, 2008, 6:13pm | #
Ron Paul isn't a genius ... compared to his colleagues in congress, he looks like Einstein.
-jcr

QFTMFT!!

[toddb]

I'm not a complete Paul fan, but christ...when you hear him talk intelligently about economic/fiscal matters (whether you agree with him or not) and then compare to the mindless drivel that comes from almost every other politician (and especially the two prez candidates)...it's just shameful how low our standards are for leadership in this country.

[johnny erstwild]

Uh, hi there. It is actually 85 BILLION. Just a correction...

[PainfullyAware]

FREE MONEY TO ALL MY FRIENDS !!!

The Root of the issue starts with Fractional Reserve Banking and Fiat Monetary Policy and is accelerated with Financial Engineering. This System Always Ends The Same. Economic Collapse And The Consolidation Of Wealth And Power.

When You Can Create Money Out Of Thin Air You Can Buy Governments.

This Is Not A Repub VS Dem issue; To Phrase It As Such Is To Hide The True Nature And Mislead The Masses.

There Will Be No Investigation Into How We Came To This Point Because Both Parties Of Power Have Colluded Against The Public. They Are One - The Money Party.

Case In Point:

From Bill Moyer's Journal Sept 12 2008 Citing A New York Times Article By Jackie Calmes:

-----------------------------------------------

Both Barack Obama and John McCain say the Fannie and Freddie mess is the result of the cozy ties between lobbyists and politicians, the very thing they will "change" if elected. But guess what? Neither one of them has ever had, quote, "A record of directly challenging the companies."

To the contrary, Obama is second among members of Congress in donations from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's employees and political action committees, even though he's only been in the Senate since 2005. The former chairman of Fannie Mae originally led Obama's vice presidential search committee but had to step down in a controversy over favorable loans he received, while at Fannie, from a company doing business with Fannie.

Among Obama's contributors are three directors and one senior vice president of the two companies. Furthermore, Obama's fellow Democrats in Congress have long been enablers of both corporations.

And what about John McCain? His entire campaign team stepped right out of a predator's ball. His confidante and top adviser lobbied several years for Freddie Mac. His deputy fundraiser lobbied Fannie Mae, and his campaign manager lobbied for both of them, leading a coalition of beltway insiders whose goal was to "stave off regulations" that might have short circuited this nightmare.

One wealthy member of Freddie Mac's board has contributed more than $70,000 to McCain and Republican Party members working for McCain's election.

Even the guy who vetted John McCain's vice presidential options is a former lobbyist for Fannie Mae.

-----------------------------------------------

Things Are More Dire Than Many Would Like To Face. Safety Is A Function Of Awareness.

Another "Fox Guarding The Hen House" Anomaly From the article http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JI18Dj01.html :

-----------------------------------------------

Fixated as I am on inflation in prices because it scares The Living Hell (TLH) out of me, I was drawn to how Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital was amused that the government and its minions have reported that "the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized ... the lowest deflator in 10 years", while at the same time "the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high!"

He asks, without the slightest hint of the venomous sarcasm you would expect, "How can it be that inflation is simultaneously running at a 17-year high and a 10-year low? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of government statistics."

-----------------------------------------------

Another thing that you will not find in any media is that the Securities Exchange Commission has stopped all short selling of small bank stocks. Doom Approaches.

When The Election Is Over And Power Seated The Financial Circus Will Reach New Heights. Do Not Be Lulled Into Believing The Scapegoat Scenarios. The Problem Is Endemic In The System. The Complexity Of Corruption Is Vast.

Wish More People Would Have Debated Ron Paul Rather Than Dismissed Him. Debate Is The Distillation Of Reality.

Anyone Advocating A Return Toward The Constitution Is An Ally. If The Constitution Was Followed The Scenario We Are In Would Be Less Likely.

The Circus Continues But The Bread Is Almost Gone.

[Paul]

I'm not a complete Paul fan, but christ...

Hey now.

I do have to say, however, that since Ron Paul is more or less out of, or much reduced from Reason's coverage, it's a lot easier for me to sort out the blog comments on H&R.

Just sayin'

[Steve Verdon]

Oh ffs can we knock this Gold Standard nonsense. Please go read up on the Gold Standard's role in the Great Depression, both in worsening a garden variety recession and prolonging said recession.

Sure, Paul is on to something about sound currency, but returning to the Gold Standard is a really bad...no, sutpid idea. There are other ways.

I'll keep the rest as a hedge against catastrophic global economic meltdown.

Right because we all know you can eat gold. Unless of course the guys with guns show up and take it from you.

Sheesh.

[Fluffy]

Things Ron Paul was right on that almost no one else in the Congress was right on:

1. Iraq would be shown to have no weapons of mass destruction.

2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would collapse, and the taxpayers would foot the bill.

I gotta tell ya, those are two pretty big things to be right on.

[John C Jackson]

So I guess Casey Serin was also right. I'm so glad people like Casey Serin are now able to move out of their parents houses.

SWEEEEEEEEET

[Justin DewDrop]

Lets not forget that Gold shot up right before the Great Depression as well! No doubt about it, here we go AGAIN! Thank You Dictator Bush!

Jiff
http://www.anonymize.us.tc

[Brenda]

"I gotta tell ya, those are two pretty big things to be right on."

For a decade reformers have tried to persuade Congress that they were allowing a serious risk to the government's credit to develop in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but few lawmakers would take action.

One of the reasons for this was the extraordinary power of Fannie and Freddie. They not only spent close to $150 million in lobbying over the last decade, but they also got their constituents-the securities industry, the homebuilders and the realtors-all powerful industries that depend on Fannie and Freddie's largesse-to support their sole legislative objective: the defeat of any attempt to control their growth. Congress, as usual knuckled under to the special interest.

However, a very small number of lawmakers saw this problem for what it was, and were willing to stand up to the power of Fannie and Freddie-and I am proud to say that John McCain was one of them. In 2005, he joined a small group of Republican Senators to cosponsor the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act, the strongest legislation introduced up to that time to control Fannie and Freddie. In a statement, he noted that "For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market?If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie and Freddie pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole."

These were prophetic words, given what we know now, but they did not spring from a sudden conversion in that year. Three years earlier, McCain had introduced legislation-co-sponsored with the House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt-to create a Corporate Subsidy Reform Commission. The purpose of this group was to eliminate what McCain called "corporate welfare". . . .

In other words, as far back as 2002, John McCain realized that underlying what would ultimately become the Fannie and Freddie crisis was the willingness of Congress to provide financial support to private corporations. And he was willing to take on powerful interests to stop this process. If his bill had resulted in action at that time, the unprecedented steps that the Secretary of the Treasury and Congress had to take in the last two weeks would not have been necessary.

[Yes]

I see that the pseudo-libertarian, crypto-statist, gold haters, are out again.

Governments did everything in their power to destroy the gold standard (which was far from perfect) that existed in the mid to late 19th century. Gold is an inanimate object, like a gun, or like a drug, and as an inanimate object it had nothing to do with the government made panics and depressions.

No one's sure what anybody means when they use the term "The Gold Standard". When Ron Paul and I use the phrase we sure don't mean "The Gold Standard That Existed Before the United States Was Forced Off of the Gold Standard by the Government", our meaning is something more abstract. We use the term as a short-hand for Free Enterprise Money, that is, money that is not created by force or fraud, but something that appears spontaneously as a widespread medium of exchange.

In the same way that language doesn't need to have legislation to support it as a medium of exchange for ideas and perceptions, money doesn't need to have any legislation to support it as a medium of exchange for goods and services either. As precious metals conform to all of the historical necessities for a money-substance, it is predicted that in the absence of government interference, precious metals would once again be the money of choice. So, "Gold Standard" is just short for that conviction.

If you haven't yet read the text that's linked in my s/n then it is exceedingly likely that all you have are strawmen arguments against the position that Paul, I, and other Austrians hold. If you don't have strawmen arguments but still disagree, feel free to discuss things over on the forums:
http://mises.org/Community/forums/

For further enlightenment:
http://www.mises.org/store/Gold-Standard-Collection-P513.aspx
http://www.mises.org/store/Money-Banking-P505.aspx

Almost all of the texts in those collections can be found in their free online form over here:
http://mises.org/literature.aspx

[Yes]

So, Brenda? are you going to go to bat for McCain's war position as well?

[George W Obama]

Flaws? What flaws?

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/17/couricandco/entry4455870.shtml

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"So, Brenda? are you going to go to bat for McCain's war position as well?"

Translation: I have no cogent rebuttal.

"If you haven't yet read the text that's linked in my s/n then it is exceedingly likely that all you have are strawmen arguments against the position that Paul, I, and other Austrians hold."

I took a shit in Austria once. Smelled like gluvine.

[Fluffy]

Translation: I have no cogent rebuttal.

Strictly speaking, being right about one of the two things I listed and not the other would not really have done us much good.

Monetary policy was only half of why we had the real estate bubble. Bush fiscal policy was the other half. Bush not only hugely increased the deficit, he decided to run two wars off the budget, because he didn't think it was "fair" to count the wars in the budget. [As if whether it was fucking "fair" or not had any bearing on anything whatsoever.]

Where was John McCain on the Bush budgets for the last 8 years? He symbolically resisted the first expansion of the deficit, and then went along with Bush for the rest of both terms.

Failing to oppose Bush's spending policies [and the Iraq war is one of Bush's greatest spending legacies] makes McCain's current claims of being some kind of Republican "reformer" a fucking joke.

[toddb]

So Gorgeous Gus, do we count "I took a shit once in Austria..." as a cogent rebuttal?

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"Translation: I have no cogent rebuttal.

Strictly speaking, being right about one of the two things I listed and not the other would not really have done us much good."

Not certain what you are saying here. Are you saying you are "Yes"? Keep in mind that a Wonder dDog is still just a dog.

[Francisco Torres]

Oh ffs can we knock this Gold Standard nonsense. Please go read up on the Gold Standard's role in the Great Depression, both in worsening a garden variety recession and prolonging said recession.

The Great Depression was the result of the Federal Reserve inflating the money supply from 1919 to 1929, not due to the gold standard. There was NO gold standard - the supposed exchange rate between gold and the greenback was a fiction. Read Rothbard's The Great Depression (available for free in Mises.org in PDF) for a greatly detailed explanation. A heads-up: it was not the gold standard.

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"So Gorgeous Gus, do we count "I took a shit once in Austria..." as a cogent rebuttal?"

Of course not. The gluvine thing was sarcastic flourish. Comedy gold if you will.

I mean really, is Yes saying that if one accepts one of a candidates position then not accepting another is tantamount to hypocrisy? Because that was my impression.

For the record, I think Iraq was stupid from the get go (but I do like the fact that Uday and Quesay are dead). I also think that vis-a-vis the "Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act" McCain was prescient.

[toddb]

I don't think it was a question of hypocrisy. I think it was just a calculation that even if you give him credit on one issue, the other issue so counteracts the first as to render it meaningless.

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"I don't think it was a question of hypocrisy. I think it was just a calculation that even if you give him credit on one issue, the other issue so counteracts the first as to render it meaningless."

Please elaborate. And please show your work as I'm but a dog.

[Brandybuck]

Gold is special only in that people think it is special. When people fear inflation they buy gold because all these goldbugs are telling them the monetary system will collapse. "Oh noes! People are buying gold! That means the economy sux I must buy some too!" Then the market realizes that the economy is not collapsing, and the price falls back to ordinary levels.

This happens only to a minor extent with silver, hardly at all with platinum, and inflation fears don't affect the price of FCOJ in the least. What makes gold different are all the austrian-goldbugs convincing a significant number of people that gold is an alternative form of money.

[Fluffy]

Gus, I showed my work in the first posts.

I listed two things Ron Paul was right about.

Some bot posted that John McCain was right about one of those two things.

I responded that only being right about one of them didn't do us any good, because to avoid our current predicament we needed Congressmen and Senators to get them both right.

[Rubbadubdubicus]

"Gold is special only in that people think it is special."

More or less. I'm not sure how this proves anything so much as confirm that the universe is still in working order. When the word of the day is recession, people tend to buy more gold. They also probably buy more bibles and Paul Krugman books, although that is strictly speculative on my part.

[Kris]

Gold is special only in that people think it is special

True enough. I'd say the same is true for "money" in general, and lots of other stuff too.

[lpcowboy]

Gold is special in that individuals worldwide have recognized gold as a store of value for over 2,000 years.

If you knew the economy were going to colapse, you would want a certain amount of food and ammunition, but beyond what you could eat/shoot within a few years, you would want something that would retain its value in the new economy. Most other commodities are much harder to store and maintain.

[Wintermute]

I'm back! Only because my college classmate Ben Bernanke's NBER paper is subscription only. Anybody got a link to a Russian or warez site that has the paper?

[Feedportal]

This system is really screwed up; take this headline from AP yesterday:

"Oil rebounds after 2-day tumble- AP"

http://ronpaul.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=160

[Mark]

This CNBC interview was enlightening for me:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=857450781&play=1

[pistoffnick]

I'm still waiting for my tulip bulb futures to skyrocket!

[mntx]

So, if the 8% jump in price is proof Paul is 'right', then what is the 25% drop over the past few months?

Are people looking for circumstances to fit the prediction?

Paul also predicted the dollar would collapse, yet lately it is trending up.

[fill in the m__f__ing blank]

Gold is special only in that people think it is special.

Whereas green slips of paper with pictures of presidents on them are special because _____________.

[Tulpa]

Paul also predicted the dollar would collapse, yet lately it is trending up.

It's trending up vs. other fiat currencies. All that means is that those other currencies are plummeting even faster vs. gold.

[Steve Verdon]

The Great Depression was the result of the Federal Reserve inflating the money supply from 1919 to 1929, not due to the gold standard. There was NO gold standard - the supposed exchange rate between gold and the greenback was a fiction. Read Rothbard's The Great Depression (available for free in Mises.org in PDF) for a greatly detailed explanation. A heads-up: it was not the gold standard.

Uhhhmmm no. The decision to stay on the Gold Standard was a disasterous decision in that it resulted in a contraction of the money supply. This took a garden variety recession and turned it into the Depression.

As for Mises, his views on economics are...well quaint at times. For example,

But we must realize that two great forces were at work on prices during the 1920s-the monetary inflation which propelled prices upward and the increase in productivity which lowered costs and prices. In a purely free-market society, increasing productivity will increase the supply of goods and lower costs and prices, spreading the fruits of a higher standard of living to all consumers. But this tendency was offset by the monetary inflation
which served to stabilize prices.

And increases in productivity will also raise wages, and thus consumption which can have an upwards pressure on prices without having to invoke inflation.

The view on statistics is laughable. Any theory should be verified by reference to observed facts. Failure to do this means one is just engaging in mental masturbation. Which is what one would want to do if they don't understand or can't do the math.

[Rawr]

Ooooh alliteration ahoy! I'm convinced.

[The Plunge Team]

Ralph, Ron, & Cynthia:

Now they're planning the crime of the century
Well what will it be?
Read all about their schemes & adventuring
It's well worth the fee

So roll up and see
How they rape the universe
How they've gone from bad to worse

Who are these men* of lust, greed, & glory?
Rip off the masks & let's see

But that's not right, oh no, what's the story?
There's you & there's me

That can't be right

[Rick Barton?s recommended site]

That Ron Paul appearance was good, but what are really telling are his prescient warnings in previous hearings that unless harder money and more free-market friendly policies were pursued, the crisis that we're indeed experiencing now would happen.

[Nader Paul McKinney]

PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM...