The Kentucky/Oregon Primary Thread

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Another Tuesday, another pair of inconclusive primaries. Because Oregon uses mail-in voting, there will be no exit polls, and this could dent Barack Obama's message: Kentucky will be called so early for Clinton that she'll get to run the airwaves for a few hours.

Kentucky (7 p.m.): The Democrats: It can't be worse for Obama than West Virginia. What could be worse? Obama's hell is Appalachia, and after 18 months of campaigning he can't get mountain whites to trust him. West Virginia was nothing but mountain whites; only half of Kentucky is Appalachian. Clinton carried every county in West Virginia (Obama only came close in Virginia-bordering Jefferson County), but Obama would have to work hard to lose Louisville-centered Jefferson County—19 percent black, median age 37, median income $44,000, and home to several universities. He has a chance in hell at winning Lexington-centered Fayette County. Lucky for him, the Louisville-based 3rd Congressional District sends 8 delegates to the convention, and he has a chance at winning them 5 to 3. Unlucky for him, the rest of the state will go for Clinton. Clinton 64 percent, Obama 35 percent, with Clinton netting around 11 delegates (out of 51).

The Republicans: I'm going to guess McCain finally breaks 80 percent here: 84 percent for him, 8 for Huckabee, the rest for Paul.

Oregon (11 p.m.):
The Pacific Northwest loves Obama, and I think this analysis gets it right: Perceptions-wise, Obama is the more lefty, "reformer" candidate, and has gotten more so since Clinton became the candidate of the John Steinbeck novel. For a similar reason, Clinton has regularly underpolled Obama here versus McCain, even during periods of relative Obama weakness. The state's just not that into Clinton. I don't buy the few polls that showed a close race: Survey USA, a pollster with a lot of experience in the state, has shown Obama consistently ahead, dipping a little during Wright, and bouncing back since May 6. Obama 56, Clinton 43, with Obama netting around 8 delegates (out of 52).

The Republicans:
I predict a slightly higher Paul vote here: Otherwise, similar to Kentucky.

UPDATE 10:56: I skipped the usual pundit wankery for some more important stuff, but really, did you miss anything? Hillary wins Kentucky, blah blah. Obama experiences weakness with Appalachian whites, yadda yadda. The pledged delegate majority finally goes to Obama, &c &c. At this point this is like obsessing over post-season pick-up games. Either the DNC engineers an anti-Obama coup or it doesn't.

Moreover, it's time to stop giving McCain the benefit of the doubt. Another opponent-less election, another failure to crack 3/4 of the vote. He hands 28 percent to Huck, Paul, and Uncommitted.

UPDATE 11:02: I was wrong: CNN was able to make a semi-exit-poll by calling Oregon's voters. If the early numbers bear out, Obama wins easily.

UPDATE 11:07: Everyone except CNN calls Oregon for Obama. Bill Kristol informs Fox viewers that Oregonians are all "drinking lattes and sipping granola." I'm confused as to how this is a greater character flaw than the Kentuckyian trend of "strongly disliking black people."

UPDATE 11:45: Here's a signal of how over this race is: Hugh Hewitt is grumbling that The Decemberists inflated Obama's numbers at his 75,000-person rally. They play the Internationale sometimes! And the bass player doesn't like George W. Bush!

The country these people inhabit is getting smaller and smaller.

Here are The Decemberists, by the way. WARNING: This video may cause mild Islamofascism.

UPDATE 12:08: Ah, I see now that Clinton claimed "as goes Kentucky, so goes the nation." Unfortunately, McCain is beating Clinton by 12 poi nts in Kentucky right now. Obama loses Kentucky, too, by much more… but Clinton makes Oregon a toss-up, while Obama wins it easily. I'm not hearing this data point amidst the weird cable news babble about how Hillary Clinton can add four new Appalachian states to the union and seize the nomination.

UPDATE 12:16: With more than half of Oregon ballots counted, I think Obama's going to stick with a 15 or 16-point lead. 80 percent of Oregonians live west of Bend, and Obama's crushing Clinton there. They're breaking even east of the Cascades, which actually represents some slippage for Obama: He mopped up in the Idaho caucus in the counties that border (and are culturally identical to) this part of Oregon. Still, Obama's going to win by about 100,000 votes, meaning Clinton's up a net 150,000 votes for the night: Losing the popular vote unless you count the sham Michigan primary, discount the caucuses, and argue that Puerto Rico should decide this game. Are the Clintons shameless enough to argue that? Excuse me, I need to grab my flashlight: I think I just saw a bear shit in the woods.

UPDAT 12:36: Another point about the Clintons and Michigan: I don't see the point. They're galavanting around the country telling low-information voters that somebody cheated Michigan out of its primary vote and that the 328,309 voters she got there, against Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and "Uncommitted," should translate to delegates and a popular vote lead. But the only people left voting are South Dakotans, Montanans, Puerto Ricans, and superdelegates. The first three groups don't care about Michigan. The latter group does care, and is pissed off at Michigan for 1)trying to cheat and hold an early primary and 2)trying to get rewarded for cheating. There are 179 uncommitted superdelegates in these 48 states and territories. Obama needs fewer than half of them to clinch the nomination, even before we count delegates from the final three primaries.

NEXT: Surprise—The AAUW Finds that More Girls than Boys in College is No Crisis

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  1. The Kentucky/Oregon Primary Thread

    YEAAAA!!!!

    I predict Mrs. Clinton takes both. Much bigger margin in KY.

  2. “Obama’s hell is Appalachia, and after 18 months of campaigning he can’t get mountain whites to trust him.”

    Maybe if he had a “real purdy mouth” they’d warm to him?

  3. I predict Obama wins Oregon by the skin of my yellow country teeth.

  4. Heh. My favorite line in that song: “Far, far away from West Virginia”.

  5. I’ve heard rumors that if Obama wins Oregon he will “declare victory.”

    I think this would be an interesting move.

    On Fox today they had Obama ahead by 200 in the delegate count and said that there is simply no way HRC catches him. So why not declare victory?

  6. What would be fun is if Clinton gets a higher percentage in Kentucky than McCain gets in Oregon.

    Actually, though, Clinton by 25 in Kentucky, Obama by 17 in Oregon. Obama will win easily in South Dakota and Montana, and I have no idea how Puerto Rico will go.

  7. I think Weigel – I assume it’s Weigel – is just about right with his predictions.

    BTW, interesting list here. Weigel – I assume it’s Weigel – is right to say that Obama fares poorly among “mountain whites.”

    Here are the ten whitest states in the country, and who won the primary there:

    Maine (Obama)
    Vermont (Obama)
    West Virginia (Clinton)
    New Hampshire (Clinton)
    Iowa (Obama)
    North Dakota (Obama)
    Montana
    Kentucky (Clinton)
    Wyoming (Obama)
    Idaho (Obama)

  8. I miss Neil.

    But I miss Cesar even more.

  9. And I predict that Guy will be proved half right.

    Allow me to present some counter-point to those umm…charming musical offerings:

    The Clash – “Should I Stay Or Should I Go?”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Gn0e7kvTA

    Pat Benatar-“You Better Run”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz1RiIp-9mU

  10. I predict the race continues.

  11. The only part of the country that is bad for Obama is Appalachia. That’s mostly because poor, uneducated whites all throughout the country don’t like him, and there’s a lot of those types in Appalachia.

  12. The missus and I switched registration to Republican to cast votes for Paul in this primary, so I’m about to take off to place our ballots in the drop box.

    There are only two Republican presidential candidates on the Oregon ballot, BTW: McCain and Paul.

    There’s also a measure to expand asset forfeiture and allow the proceeds to be spent on law enforcement. We’re voting no, but I suspect it’ll pass, dammit.

  13. Mr. Nice Guy: On Fox today they had Obama ahead by 200 in the delegate count and said that there is simply no way HRC catches him. So why not declare victory?

    Obama has declared victory in his head. Now he’s just trying to finesse the smallest number of Clinton voters who get poisoned off of him as possible. That means balancing not coming across as arrogant or dashing their (innumerate) dreams versus looking weak by letting Clinton continue to snipe at him.

    Right now, he seems to be basically running the campaign as though he were the nominee without ever actually saying that, and I think it’s working about as well as anything will for him.

  14. Mountain Dew Whites?

    I like that.

    I will add that to the “Bush rednecks” and “blue dogs” for an All-American electoral map of the South/Appalachia.

  15. Just goes to show that Obama doesn’t have a problem with whites (he won Utah big) he just has a problem with poor whites. And most of these poor whites are going to vote for McCain anyway.

  16. PS: Obama now leads Clinton among whites, hispanics, women, and those with high school or less.
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/107407/Obama-Surge-Fairly-BroadBased.aspx

  17. “poor whites” = UNEDUCATED whites.

  18. cnn.com is already showing Clinton 58% Obama 38% in KY. Uh…make that Kentucky. One third of the vote is already in.

  19. Make that “one third of precincts already reporting”.

  20. On Fox today they had Obama ahead by 200 in the delegate count and said that there is simply no way HRC catches him. So why not declare victory?

    Because to get that 200 they must be counting super delegates and Edwards delegates who have declared support for a candidate — but who could easily switch.

  21. It’d be very easy for RP fans to greatly reduce McCain’s popularity by going to his events and pressing him on things like this, and then uploading his response to video sites.

    See, for instance, this unintentional example involving another of our wonderful candidates.

    Of course, the above assumes that RP fans are able to summon up the courage to do things like that, something I don’t think they’re capable of.

  22. Not much to report as a Republican in Portland Oregon. Voted McCain to send a message I do not like Ron Paul. In the First congressional district Wu seat is safe. we ether have a David Wu wannabe or a Ron Paul wannabe. Other than that noting much to look at and example of the dismal state of the Oregon Republican Party.

  23. AND I FURTHER PREDICT (emphasis for yuks) that Obama will exceed expectations in both states, especially Oregon, cuz there’s a fait accompli dynamic at work with the Dems and more of em just wanna get the thing over with already so they can focus on McCain.

  24. Richard Brown:

    Voted McCain to send a message I do not like Ron Paul Voted McCain to send a message I do not like Ron Paul….Other than that noting much to look at and example of the dismal state of the Oregon Republican Party.

    If you’re serious and there’re many like you, we can understand why the Oregon Republican Party is in a dismal state

  25. What happened to Cesar? He was always sharp, agree or not…

  26. Or RP fans could really turn up the heat and question the motives of the BrownMenace and ask serious questions like this or this.

  27. From CBS and exit polls:

    In Kentucky, just 33 percent of Clinton voters said they would back Obama in the general election if he is the Democratic nominee – 41 percent said they will vote for McCain, and another 23 percent say they won’t vote.

    Compared to Oregon polls where about 80% of either would vote for the other. I am not sure what this tells me about Kentucky other than perhaps a)hill folk are racist b)Hillary swings far to the right respective to the party or c)McCain swings far to the left respective to the party. What it absolutely tells me is that there is no real difference between Republicans and Democrats.

  28. Whoops! Mah link, I forgetted it.

  29. Left out of the stats so far is the “age” demographic.

    WV and KY have older “stragglers” with no tech industry. Oregon is much younger.

    I suspect age/education trump “race” – especially since OR and KY are both 90% “whiat”.

  30. What happened to Cesar?

    Hasn’t been heard from since Ides of March…

  31. Did I hear Hillary right when she said “neither Obama nor I will have enough delegates to secure nomination once primary voting is over… therefore the Democratic party has a very important decision to make…”

    or something to that effect…

    meaning: she intends to take this thing all the way to a brokered Democratic convention?

    I gotta give credit to Hill for having brazz ballz. ….

  32. Yea Mrs. Clinton! Don’t let those sexists push you around!

  33. You think this stops at the convention? Hill will take it all the way to the courts when she loses there.

  34. Hillary Clinton : Reform Party candidate…. ?

  35. svf – that would be hilarious.

  36. You think this stops at the convention? Hill will take it all the way to the courts when she loses there.

    That is just a pit-stop on the way up the steps to wrestle the Bible form the Chief Justice.

  37. At the inauguration.

    ugh

  38. Rasmussen Reports 5/18/08:

    The survey also considered a match-up with Senator Hillary Clinton running as an Independent candidate. In that match-up, it’s McCain 32%, Obama 31%, Clinton 22%, Barr 3%, and Nader 3%. In that match-up, Obama wins 50% of the vote from Democrats while Clinton gets 35% and McCain 7%.

    It is highly unlikely that Clinton would consider running as a third party candidate. However, a recent survey found that 29% of Democrats would like her to do so if she is not the Democratic Party nominee.

  39. Latest KY numbers, with 99% are very close to Dave Weigel’s prediction.

  40. Hamilton Jordan has died. Did not notice anybody else mention.

  41. The last comment was not from me, and let me suggest again that doing things like that makes Reason look even worse. And, whoever’s doing it really should discuss this with a lawyer.

  42. Oregon is a weird state. Portland is to the left of Berkeley, but the rest of the state is fairly conservative, being deeper and deeper red the further east you go. Unfortunately, most of the population is in Portland.

  43. No where near half of Ky is appalachian. 1/6th tops.

  44. Portland is to the left of Berkeley, but the rest of the state is fairly conservative, being deeper and deeper red the further east you go. Unfortunately, most of the population is in Portland.

    So, it is hills without billies and perfect teeth, or something like that?

  45. robc,

    The elitists need to cling to their mythology to give themselves a sense of worth.

  46. And most of these poor whites are going to vote for McCain anyway.

    Damn poor whites voting their pocketbook instead of celebrating diversity. This makes the case for mandatory college for all.

  47. While picking on details of KY commments above:

    Louisville-centered Jefferson County?

    I guess that is technically true, in that as The Louisville city limits are the county borders, the center of the county is Louisville. Its been 8 years since the city-county merger, lets do some fact checking.

    Also, since the merger, part of Louisville is in the 2nd district too. They are a handful of Louisville precincts in the 2nd. Jefferson Co is too large for a single congressional district.

  48. That DC lawyer from Illinois is in Iowa asking for change now. I had no idea one could travel so far on change.

  49. BTW, my Mom is one of those KY democrats who wont vote for Obama. I assume she voted for Clinton today, she may have protest voted for Edwards. She lives is Louisville, so she is in Obama territory. She is originally from rural KY, but not appalachia.

  50. SIV,

    Remember, if a State votes for Mrs Clinton it is either because of the rednecks or because of the enlightened, based purely on geography.

  51. Iowa? Is that the last time he took a white majority?

  52. LS,

    Isn’t Sen. Obama’s home State majority white?

  53. Here are the ten whitest states in the country, and who won the primary there:

    Maine (Obama)
    Vermont (Obama)
    West Virginia (Clinton)
    New Hampshire (Clinton)
    Iowa (Obama)
    North Dakota (Obama)
    Montana
    Kentucky (Clinton)
    Wyoming (Obama)
    Idaho (Obama)

  54. Whoa. Dejoe vu.

  55. Sen. Obama: “they are playing on our fears” oh no, Al Gore phrase alert!

  56. Remember the primary night when they aired Obama’s victory speech immediately after McCain’s?

    And how McCain gave his speeches at, like, 11:30 after that?

  57. Guy Montag | May 20, 2008, 10:21pm | #

    Hyperbole.

    But seriously he’s in serious trouble in the general election the way he is closing it out. I predict a year from now if he and Kerry are in the same room they will be referred to as Dukakae. Too many people in this country apparently won’t vote for a black man, especially after Rev Wright’s media parade. When has anybody seen a candidate that has sown up the nomination get trounced 2 to 1 on a regular basis? These numbers are so ridiculous that it is sickening watching the press make up excuses. Of course this gives us McCain which is just as bad if not worse than Obama. WW III versus European Socialism, this country’s going to shit.

  58. And, whoever’s doing it really should discuss this with a lawyer.

    Ooooh, lookout whoever dared to post that, big bad lonewackoff is gonna come get you! Seriously, threatening anonymous people with totally implausible legal action is not only not going to scare anyone, it is so laughable that you’ve become unintentionally funnier than any of the parody attempts could ever be. I’m pretty sure that nothing anyone fake-posts could make you look any worse than you already do.

  59. McCain is our next president.

    Take that to the bank… and be very afraid.

  60. Has no?ne else noticed that McCain only pulled 72% in Kentucky?

    NOBODY likes him (especially if what was said earlier about only Mac/Paul/Undecided on the ballot is true).

  61. But seriously he’s in serious trouble in the general election the way he is closing it out.

    The day of the Pennsylvania primary, Obama was up less than a point over McCaine in the RCP average. Today, he’s up a hair under four points.

    Over the course of “the way he’s closing it out,” he’s gone up in the polls – which doesn’t prove that he’s going to win, but makes it tough to argue that he’s being hurt.

  62. Isn’t McCain the guy who said that Ahmedinejad is a Sunni, or something?

    I don’t know, his gaffes all run together. He needs to stop doing things like that.

  63. The Clinton campaign just sent out a press release announcing that it raised $22 million in April. The Obama campaign raised $31.3 million and the McCain campaign raised $18 million.

    No, but seriously, Obama is in trouble, and McCain’s in the driver’s seat.

  64. joe | May 20, 2008, 10:48pm | #

    Polls don’t mean shit, the only polls I am looking at is primaries. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida are going to be trouble for Obama. Old people aren’t going to vote for Obama and old people vote. McCain can gaffe all he wants, hell he could say that he will abolish social security and he would still carry seniors.

  65. Rick, the libertarian party has had 50 years or more to make a name for them selves. Mr. Paul is just spewing same unprincipled wacked out catchphrase masquerading as principals of individual liberty combined with a rabid following fit for the Branch Davidians mixed with Lyndon LaRouche paranoia, mass delusion, and persecution complex.

    With McCain doing so baldly yet Ron Paul can break even 10% there is no victory there is no revolution.

  66. NOBODY likes him (especially if what was said earlier about only Mac/Paul/Undecided on the ballot is true).

    Romney/Guiliani/Keyes/Huckabee were also on the ballot.

  67. Of the real states (it will be a cold day in hell before I recognize Missouri), KY is tied for the longest streak of voting for the winner in the general election. There is zero chance of Obama winning KY.

    Whether the streak continues or he breaks it, I have no idea.

  68. Primaries don’t mean shit, Lev, in predicting the outcome of the general election.

    Think Utah is going to snub McCain?

    I always hear about how all the really important people won’t vote for Obama. I guess the really important people are a minority, because I always hear this as Obama is winning.

    Somebody’s voting for him.

  69. LevStrauss | May 20, 2008, 10:18pm | #

    Iowa? Is that the last time he took a white majority?

    Have you been asleep since January? Obama took Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho and Washington by more than 30 percent, and Vermont, Wyoming and North Dakota by more than 20. He’s run up white majorities in a lot of states.

  70. I just wanna note that I consider that my prediction at 8:11pm that Obama will exceed expectations in both states, especially Oregon, cuz there’s a fait accompli dynamic at work with the Dems, has failed to come to fruition in Kentucky (cuz Obama lost by 35 points). David hit hit on the head. We’ll see about Oregon.

  71. joe,

    Do ya think McCain knows what states border Kentucky? Obama doesn’t. “The “57 States gaffe” seemed like he just misspoke but it is becoming apparent he is actually “geographically challenged”.Obamas speaking ability camouflages the likelihood he couldn’t win a game of trivia with GWB.

  72. “I always hear about how all the really important people won’t vote for Obama. I guess the really important people are a minority, because I always hear this as Obama is winning.”

    Winning Democratic Primaries in Democratic strongholds, that puts him in the same boat as Dukakis, Kerry, Gore*, etc. Yes it will be a minority because a bunch of people who voted for Clinton will not vote for Obama, they will vote for McCain or stay home. Him losing the swing states is going to be trouble.

  73. I don’t think one person in a hundred would know what you’re talking about.

  74. Yeah Eggheads will carry Oregon.

  75. I always hear about how all the really important people won’t vote for Obama.

    He’s soft, joe! SOFT!

  76. Good thing Bill Clinton didn’t win any Democratic primaries in Democratic strongholds. Oh, wait…

    Spouting off about how states will go in the general because of how they split in the primary is idiotic.

    Yes it will be a minority because a bunch of people who voted for Clinton will not vote for Obama, they will vote for McCain or stay home.

    The number of people saying this is no higher than the number of McCain voters who said they wouldn’t vote for Bush in 2000.

    And independents are splitting evenly NOW, when Obama is still rolling around in the mud with Hillary Clinton. They’re going to break for McCain more when the two nominees are on a level playing field?

  77. So far, Lev, you’ve told us that Obama hasn’t won any majority-white states since Iowa, and that the period when he’s been trending away from McCain is making him look bad for the general election.

    Do you think you might be letting wishful thinking interfere with your perception of the race?

  78. You all are invited to participate in a poll of what direction Libertarian Republicans should take if the Libertarian Party fails to nominate Libertarian Republican favorites Bob Barr and/or Wayne Root this weekend in Denver.

    Poll now up at http://www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com click on link above.

    Thanks!

  79. We don’t need no cottontops, beaners, and po’ white trash too dumb to vote Republican….

    Just tell the youngins Obama will forgive their student loans, stop McSame’s secret draft and legalize the herb, dude and he is a shoe in with a landslide. TOTAL REALIGNMENT!!!!

  80. So far, Obama is doing well in the Portland area as well as outside it: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OR

  81. SIV: I think Obama’s misstatements more probably mean he’s tired than anything else. I’m sure he knows Kentucky borders Illinois. (Or he might have been saying Arkansas is closer to Kentucky than Arkansas is to Illinois, since the statement could mean that. Or simply that Arkansas is closer politically to Kentucky, which it is. I’d have to see the statement in context.)

  82. Hmmm. Even without going to Donderooo’s site, I think I know what the questions on his poll might look like:

    “if the Libertarian Party fails to nominate Libertarian Republican favorites Bob Barr and/or Wayne Root this weekend in Denver, should we:

    1) Nominate Islamofascist peacenik commietarian Mary Ruwart, so she can endorse child pornography;

    2) Nominate evil Islamofascist fisiks type George Philles so he can embarrass us all by taking out the Noam Chomsky blow up doll on stage;

    3) Nominate hippy Islamofascist Phil Kubby so he can smoke dope and talk about how abandoning the Mideast would be “groovy” or…

    4) Should we nominate defense supporting WAR HERO and totally libertarian republican John McCain who has promised to support the war for libertarian in Iraq.

  83. “Here are the ten whitest states in the country, and who won the primary there:

    Maine (Obama)
    Vermont (Obama)
    West Virginia (Clinton)
    New Hampshire (Clinton)
    Iowa (Obama)
    North Dakota (Obama)
    Montana
    Kentucky (Clinton)
    Wyoming (Obama)
    Idaho (Obama”

    When did caucuses and primaries become the same thing, joe, you ignorant fucking twit. Why do you even bother anymore?

  84. David Weigel:

    In more interesting news… WHEN IS THE VIDEO FOR THE REASON LIBERTARIAN DEBATE FROM TODAY GOING TO BE POSTED???

  85. B,

    Considering the guy joe was responding to was saying Iowa was the last time Obama won a primary in a majority white states, your beef is with LevStrauss, not joe.

    I believe the only states that are not majority white are TX and CA. Both of those went for Clinton.

  86. You better get used to hearing the Internationale — when Barky becomes president, we’ll all be forced to sing it — each and every morning.

    “Arise ye workers from your slumbers . . .”

  87. Correction:

    I believe the only states that are not majority white are TX, NM and CA. All three of those states went to Clinton.

  88. The Clinton campaign just sent out a press release announcing that it raised $22 million in April. The Obama campaign raised $31.3 million and the McCain campaign raised $18 million.

    I remember when Ron Paul was dropping moneybombs and John McCain couldn’t even get a hamburger today if he agreed to pay by Tuesday. Money isn’t everything.

  89. Here’s more on Barry’s opening act. I’d say 400,000 is a pretty healthy number, no?

    And, if you haven’t heard the latest rumor, check this out. As someone else said, not too many people are going to think that her doing something like that is implausible. She can’t even pretend to be interested in making a call: http://youtube.com/watch?v=LRRVMWn_Myw

  90. Lonewacko, are you actually comparing YouTube views to bodies showing up at a concert? Your immigration innumeracy starts to make a lot of sense…

  91. If your an opening act, only your mother shows up to see you and not the main event.

    Until about a year ago I thought soviet national anthem = the Internationale. When I finally learned the difference, I was amazed. Say what you want about the tenets of Stalinism, but Gimn Sovetskogo soyuza is a kick ass anthem; heck, it almost makes you root for those Red October sailors against that imperialist running dog Reuben James.

    But the Internationale is god(godless?) awful. It makes To Anacreon in Heaven seem like Bach.

  92. I bet the Soviet anthem was composed in the 20s, which was a pretty great period for Russian art of all kinds (mind-meltingly great graphic design, some pretty swell literature and some of the best movies ever made, among others). I’m sure that the Decembrists’ appropriation of said song is merely some hangover from the late-1990s vogue for Soviet kitsch, not that I’d expect Hugh Hewitt to have the mental candlepower to make such fine distinctions (In other news: the sky is blue, the grass is green). The Decembrists’ only crimes are aesthetic, not ideological: they’re a terrible, terrible group, and only dildos like their music.

  93. He mopped up in the Idaho caucus in the counties that border (and are culturally identical to) this part of Oregon.

    Your a fucking idiot.

  94. The Pacific Northwest loves Obama

    Yay!!! We are a bunch of white people who don’t hate black people…..congratulations my fellow Cascadians.

    Now that that is all cleared up can we now stop voting for socialists?

  95. Lonewacko, are you actually comparing YouTube views to bodies showing up at a concert? Your immigration innumeracy starts to make a lot of sense…

    I lived in portland for 6 years.

    and now I am a little scared that Lonewacko has a better grasp of Portland’s music scene then David does.

  96. Your a fucking idiot.

    This, people, is the reason I frequent H&R. The intellectual rigor, the high-minded discourse… and the sweet, sweet irony.

  97. Bill Kristol informs Fox viewers that Oregonians are all “drinking lattes and sipping granola.” I’m confused as to how this is a greater character flaw than the Kentuckyian trend of “strongly disliking black people.”

    I’m confused as how to sip granola.

  98. Mo,

    Thanks, but B’s beef is with me, will always be with me, and is immune to reason. Seriously, who gets driven to spittle-flecked profanity by refering to “primaries and caucuses” as “primaries?”

    Your a fucking idiot.

    Ha ha. Get a brain, morans!

  99. “Bill Kristol informs Fox viewers that Oregonians are all “drinking lattes and sipping granola.” I’m confused as to how this is a greater character flaw than the Kentuckyian trend of “strongly disliking black people.”

    You expect better from Dan Quayle’s brain? This guy holds the world’s record for being wrong.

    Anytime the name Bill Kristol is mentioned, it should be accompanied by this brilliant quote in regard to how things really were in Iraq:

    “There’s a certain amount of pop psychology in America that the Shia can’t get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There’s almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq’s always been very secular.”

    Immortal idiocy.

  100. Bill Kristol? Wrong?

    Wow, this is the first time since…uh…yesterday.

    On Tuesday night, while the G.O.P. Congressional candidate was losing in a Mississippi district George Bush carried in 2004 by 25 points, Barack Obama was being trounced in the West Virginia Democratic primary — by 41 points. I can’t find a single recent instance of a candidate who ultimately became his party’s nominee losing a primary by this kind of margin.

    Mitt Romney beat John McCain in Utah by about 80 points.

  101. David Weigel,

    I’m confused as to how this is a greater character flaw than the Kentuckyian trend of “strongly disliking black people.”

    From exit polls:
    White Dems 76-22 Clinton
    Black Dems 91-8 Obama

    It looks like a trend of black Kyians strongly disliking white people. Much more so than the other way around.

    This reminds me of the media discussing the “gender gap” problem that Republicans have because they dont do well with women voters. You rarely (I originally wrote never, but Im sure it has been mentioned) hear a discussion of why Democrats have trouble with men.

    If there is a gender gap, it goes in both directions.

  102. robc, I’ve been meaning to ask you – did you go to the book-signing or rally last Saturday?

    I was at the book-signing and was wishing I’d asked you if your were planning to attend.

  103. As I came home to Idaho from Portland, OR last Sunday morning I saw at least 30 Trailwind tour Buses headed the opposite direction from Idaho. At a stop for gas I noticed the buses were full of students. Now it seems funny you can go to the caucus in Idaho with nothing more than a picture (student ID) and vote in Oregon with a drivers Licence, thus voteing twice for your favorite candidate!

  104. Bronwyn,

    No. I was considering it, but got caught up doing things around the house. The lawn needed mowing – some things are more important than politics.

  105. You and my husband, both! I came home to find hubby on the tractor. That’s alright, mom and I enjoyed our Girls’ Day Out, politicking and shopping 🙂

  106. Bellcalif,

    Oregon has vote by mail; if the “students” you claimed to see are Oregon residents (and thus eligible to vote), there’d be absolutely no need to bus them into the state for voting purposes.

    Also, it’s not uncommon to see plenty of tour buses on I-84 between Portland and Boise. Nice conspiracy theory, though.

  107. …and if they’re not Oregon residents, they can’t get a mail-in ballot just by visiting the state.

  108. “Now that that is all cleared up can we now stop voting for socialists?”

    Just as soon as the non-socialists stop getting us into unnecessary, immoral trillion dollar wars.

    Jeez, I hate being a single issue voter.

    If Obama’s fiscal policies result in my sleeping under the Burnside bridge next year, begging scraps from the food vendors at Saturday Market, I’ll consider switching sides in 2012.

  109. Your a fucking idiot.

    Ha ha. Get a brain, morans!

    Please joe, tell me more about the culture of eastern Oregon.

  110. Just as soon as the non-socialists stop getting us into unnecessary, immoral trillion dollar wars.

    When did Dino Rossi do that?

  111. Josh, no one’s caring about your Dino. We’re busy worrying about McSame.

  112. Just as soon as the non-socialists stop getting us into unnecessary, immoral trillion dollar wars.

    I guess all socialist wars are cheap and moral.

  113. “I guess all socialist wars are cheap and moral.”

    The wars started by socialist U.S. Presidents have all been very cheap and very moral.

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