Campaigns/Elections

Presidential Surveys Say…

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From an AP/Yahoo poll:

In last November's Associated Press-Yahoo News poll, people preferred an unnamed Democratic White House candidate to a Republican contender by 40 percent to 27 percent. In this month's survey, McCain was essentially tied with the two Democratic rivals: It was McCain 37 percent to Hillary Rodham Clinton's 36 percent, and McCain 36 percent against Barack Obama's 34 percent….

Overall, 57 percent in this month's AP-Yahoo poll found Barack Obama likable, compared with 47 percent who said so about John McCain and 37 percent who thought so about Hillary Rodham Clinton. That's an increase since November of 8 percentage points for McCain and 6 points for Obama, while Clinton is 3 points lower.

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  1. 57 percent in this month’s AP-Yahoo poll found Barack Obama likable, compared with 47 percent who said so about John McCain and 37 percent who thought so about Hillary Rodham Clinton.

    Ouch. And that’s before people get to see McCain fly off the handle (which he inevitably will; he’s notoriously hot-tempered).

    It might help HRC if she cut out the demonic chuckle. You know, a little bit.

  2. I don’t know about the accuracy of these numbers. If true, almost 30% of the electorate is undecided? Considering how much this campaign has been shoved down people’s throats so far, that seems rather high.

  3. McCain has always scored higher than the generic Republican. He’s probably the only Republican who would have even a ghost of a chance of beating either Democrat in the fall. It looked like he was sunk for a while during the primaries, and probably would have been if all of the other leading candidates didn’t each have poison pills of their own.

    The GOP really dodged a bullet. If Mitt Romney had been a Lutheran, he’d be the nominee, and he’d be 20 points behind both Democrats.

  4. Interesting lead story at http://www.gallup.com today, on state-by-state polling.

  5. I’ll vote for McCain if his slogan in the general election is, “If it’s not Scottish, it’s crap!”

  6. I can’t decide if McCain is more like General Buck Turgidson or General Jack D. Ripper – or maybe even Colonel Bat Guano.

    Seriously – he is a likable guy but the gung-ho war thing is just too much to take for four more years.

  7. PL,

    Only if he has Tim Meadows as his running mate.

  8. I don’t know if McCain blowing his top will make him less popular; it all depends on how and why. It could make him look more human and like a normal person, or it could make him look like a fuckhead. Since it will almost assuredly happen, we will find out.

  9. This isn’t really a surprise. Some polls (particularly Rasmussen, who called the last 2 elections closer than anyone else) have been showing the same thing for several weeks already. With Obama and Clinton tearing into each other like a pair of junkyard dogs, which ever one of them gets the nomination is likely to be damaged goods before McCain even gets a crack at them.

    If I had to bet on it today, my money says if McCain can keep his mouth shut and stay out of trouble for the next few months, he’s going to be elected the next president.

  10. Epi,

    We clearly don’t want our politicians to be human. When every moment is scrutinized and every lapse is unforgivable, only stone cold motherfuckers get to be president.

  11. PM,

    I don’t buy the “damaged goods” theory, because of the picayune, shallow nature of the poo-flinging between Obama and Clinton.

    Where I think McCain is benefitting is from the lack of fire being directed towards him. Clinton and Obama are close enough, policy-wise, that the nonsense we’ve been seeing for the past few weeks is all they have to at each other with. But McCain really is on the wrong side of the public on a lot of issues. He’s being allowed to cement a vision of himself in the public mind without being challenged on it.

  12. We clearly don’t want our politicians to be human. When every moment is scrutinized and every lapse is unforgivable, only stone cold motherfuckers get to be president.

    Or tighter than a Spitzer hooker types, or say nothing of substance so nothing can be traced to you Obama types. One of the three.

  13. I don’t know about the accuracy of these numbers. If true, almost 30% of the electorate is undecided? Considering how much this campaign has been shoved down people’s throats so far, that seems rather high.

    I was committed to Ron Paul, now of these three I haven’t the faintest idea of who is the least dispicable.

  14. only stone cold motherfuckers get to be president.

    Or tighter than a Spitzer hooker types, or say nothing of substance so nothing can be traced to you Obama types

    Unless you can pull off an aw shucks act well enough, really come across as someone the public would want to have a beer with. Then you could vivisect bunny rabbits and all we’d hear about is your colorful, authentic character.

  15. Aw, shucks…wanna get a beer? What, I lost the primary? Time to vivisect some bunnies.

  16. Career as a lobbyist?

    Aw, shucks. We got a saying in East Hoggsville: when the possum gets in with the skunks, that’s when the flies start buzzin’ round.

    Shewt. Where’s mah scalpel?

  17. “I don’t know if McCain blowing his top will make him less pop”
    I dunno Epi, for the past few weeks all the press can talk about is Obama using the word bitter in reference to some voters…These people are scrutinized at amazing levels. One thing in McCain’s favor is that he doesn’t have large media outlets actively working with his opponents campaign who can examine his every word and then virally release frames into the mainstream press like Fox and the conservative press do for the GOP candidate…

  18. But, but… Why don’t people find Hillary to be likable? I just don’t get it. It must be because they are scared of strong women.

  19. What’s wrong wit de stone cold motherfuckers we got? I mean, the stone cold motherfuckers we got campaign pretty good, don’t they? Now, I ain’t never heard nobody complain about the stone cold motherfuckers we have.

  20. “or say nothing of substance so nothing can be traced to you Obama types”

    This is sad but very true. Remember when Clinton first came in, and he wanted to, you know, do some stuff? Like lifting the ban on gays in the military or health care reform? And he was way unpopular. Then he realized that if you just don’t advocate bold policy changes you are more popular, and so from then on it was voluntarily urging v-chips and school uniforms for him…Reagan was similar (contrast how he talked in 1976 to what he was proposing in 1986 for example).

  21. “Why don’t people find Hillary to be likable? I just don’t get it. It must be because they are scared of strong women.”

    Reinmoose, you don’t think some of it is that? I mean, I hate her and yet I think a lot of the hate directed at her comes from that source, because it seems so reflexive and irrational at times. I know people, college educated people, who have told me they would “never vote for a woman for President.”

  22. It all depends on how McCain lashes out. If he can, for instance, manage to rip into somebody and spin it as “disrespecting the troops” or America or similar, it will probably make him more popular.

    If he bites the head off somebody for questioning him about the Keating Five or POWs, it will make him less popular.

    Maybe he’ll do both and even it all out.

  23. I don’t know if McCain blowing his top will make him less popular; it all depends on how and why.

    Don’t forget that Cheney calling that NYT reporter an asshole was a plus last time around.

  24. In contrast, I know some racist folks, but I really have never heard anyone offer to me that they would never vote for a black person (or asian or what have you). There is stil some funniness about women, especially ones that assert themselves professionally.

    Me, I find such women sexy. My favorite stripper routine is the “sexy glasses wearing briefcase toting professional lady.” Well, next to “sexy cop.”

  25. My favorite stripper routine is the “sexy glasses wearing briefcase toting professional lady.” Well, next to “sexy cop.”

    Well, now picture Hillary doing it and I guarantee you will switch to “Catholic Schoolgirl”. Just don’t picture Hillary doing that or you’ll have to switch to “Cowgirl”.

  26. “If he bites the head off somebody for questioning him about the Keating Five or POWs, it will make him less popular”

    If I were him I would seriously hire plants and stage such exchanges at pivotal times in the campaign.

    Audience plant (wearing Che Gueverra t-shirt, beanie and sporting goatee): Sen. McCain, don’t you think our incursion into Iraq demonstrates the kind of war-mongering behavior that caused us to be attack on 9/11?
    McCain: You sir make me sick. Noone deserved to die that day. America is a good and moral nation working for the better in the world today. We were attacked by evil extremists who hate our freedom. Etc.

    Hannity would run it nightly…

  27. “Well, now picture Hillary doing it and I guarantee you will switch to “Catholic Schoolgirl”.”

    Epi-I know we are at odds at times, but this was a low blow…You owe me one breakfast for invoking that image…Yech

  28. (passes pancakes and syrup to MNG)

  29. Epi-I know we are at odds at times, but this was a low blow…You owe me one breakfast for invoking that image…Yech

    How can you think of food with an image like that?

  30. MNG, Many of those who have a visceral dislike of Hillary Clinton, also admired, even adored Maggie Thatcher. Was it because Maggie was more likable or less successful? Maybe it was about policy and coming across as a genuine person. Bawling sexism doesn’t even get up to the “poor” level of excuses for Hillary’s travails.

  31. I think misogyny works its way into political dialogue in two ways; through holding women to a double standard, and through putting a layer of gendered language on top of denunciations of women candidates.

    It seems like Hillary-bashers descend into “bitch cunt whore” at the drop of a hat. There just isn’t a comparable dive for the gutter in condemnations of McCain or Obama.

    But, that said, there are a whole lot of us who were willing to put the Hillary Derangement Syndrome down to sexism last winter, who’ve come around after watching her campaign over the past few months. She is just a dirty fighter.

  32. I dislike Hillary Clinton for many of the same reasons I disliked her husband when he was president: they both have a serious problem with the truth.

    That Hillary also belittled Secret Service agents who refused to carry her luggage (“Then what the fuck are you good for?”) is secondary.

  33. Better get used to saying “President Obama”. Doesn’t matter what we like, only with what will happen. A Democrat is a Democrat is a Democrat. Same as a Catholic School Girl can change out of her uniform but we’ll always know she still obeys the Pope.

  34. Many of those who have a visceral dislike of Hillary Clinton, also admired, even adored Maggie Thatcher. Was it because Maggie was more likable or less successful? Maybe it was about policy and coming across as a genuine person.

    There is also the very understandable impression that Hillary got where she is by riding the coat tails of her husband (which, in terms of endowing legitimacy, is only a step or two above the woman who sleeps with her boss to get promoted). That combined with the fact that she is the quintessential politician (changes her story/policy/position/accent/personality based on who she’s talking to).

  35. MNG –
    I know some people like that too. But do you deny that there aren’t perfectly legit reasons for not thinking that Hillary is likable, beyond those things that are connected to being a woman?

  36. Reinmoose-I don’t deny it. I just said that she faces some hatred just because she is a woman. But there are lots of reasons to hate her that are legit, and more of us are discovering it. She is indeed a dirty fighter, but more than that, an amazingly selfish one with seemingly no principles above herself…

  37. J sub D
    That is a very good point. Thanks

  38. It makes me wonder how people were capable of making decisions without attaching numbers to everything.

  39. If true, almost 30% of the electorate is undecided?

    I don’t know about the rest of the country, but in Hawaii “undecided” means “AJA (American of Japanese Descent) who isn’t going to answer an intrusive question by some Mainland haole, but everyone here knows they’re going to vote a straight Democratic ticket just like the last 50 years no matter how badly the Democratic candidate sucks, because they’re still pissed off about the plantation days.”

    I guess “undecided” has the advantage of brevity.

  40. McCain has always scored higher than the generic Republican. He’s probably the only Republican Blue Dog Democrat masquerading as a RINO who would have even a ghost of a chance of beating either of the other Democrats in the fall.

    Fixed.

  41. Same as a Catholic School Girl can change out of her uniform but we’ll always know she still obeys the Pope.

    Actually, my wife did that last night (if by “change” you mean “drop on the floor”), and I can assure you that she was not obeying the Pope afterwards.

    Oh, crap, now I’ve spoiled the campaign slogan “change” for all of you. My bad.

  42. Just like how America voted to end the war in 2006 (not because of ear marks or scandles) they will vote to end the war in 2008…

    Oh wait.

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