Campaigns/Elections

The Latest Polls on the 2008 Presidential Race

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Because it's Wednesday and, what, over a year away from mattering.

The short version: Hillary Clinton is still kicking Obama's and John Edwards' asses. Rudy Giuliani is still looking good, though Fred Thompson (at least until he actually opens his frownsome mouth and starts campaigning) should be cause for concern. And Hillary vs. Rudy is looking pretty tight. Some details here, from RealClearPolitics:

RacePollPeriodResultsSpread
Republican Presidential Nomination Rasmussen08/04—08/07 Giuliani 24, Thompson 23, McCain 11, Romney 15Giuliani +1.0%
Democratic Presidential Nomination Rasmussen08/04—08/07 Clinton 38, Obama 27, Edwards 13, Richardson 4Clinton +11.0%
Florida Democratic PrimaryQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Clinton 43, Obama 13, Edwards 8, Gore 11Clinton +30.0%
Florida Republican PrimaryQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Giuliani 26, Thompson 19, McCain 11, Romney 9Giuliani +7.0%
Ohio Democratic PrimaryQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Clinton 41, Obama 16, Edwards 11, Gore 8Clinton +25.0%
Pennsylvania Democratic PrimaryQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Clinton 35, Obama 19, Edwards 10, Gore 12Clinton +16.0%
Ohio Republican PrimaryQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Giuliani 29, Thompson 11, McCain 11, Romney 8Giuliani +18.0%
Pennsylvania Republican PrimaryQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Giuliani 29, McCain 16, Thompson 14, Romney 3Giuliani +13.0%
Ohio: Giuliani vs. ClintonQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Giuliani 43, Clinton 43Tie
Pennsylvania: Giuliani vs. ClintonQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Giuliani (R) 44, Clinton (D) 45Clinton +1.0%
Pennsylvania: Giuliani vs. ObamaQuinnipiac07/30—08/06 Giuliani (R) 45, Obama (D) 39Giuliani +6.0%

Complete results, if you need that sort of thing.

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  1. But where is Ron Paul in all this?

  2. At this point in 2003, Joe Lieberman had a double-digit lead in the Democratic presidential nomination.

    We’re at about the bottom of the second inning here.

  3. Of course, they never give the statistical uncertainty, cause then they would have to report, “we don’t know who is ahead now, and even if we did, it may or may not have anything to do with who is ahead a day, a week or 6 months from now” So,… we will report on the intricacies of health care reform… uh, but first, some more pictures of Brittany getting out of an SUV

  4. Say, is that a windmill? Guess I better go tilt at it.

    RON PAUL! All Ron all the time says I.
    I’ve decided I’m going to Iowa this weekend. I figure odds are pretty high this is where the Paul campaign begins its death throws. But I’m holding on to the hope that this is yet another surprising step up on the PAUL in ’08 ladder to the White House.

    The difference between obligatory disappointment and history making success, will be a matter of how many folks show up. So I figure if I decide it’s worth the risk, maybe 10,000 other guys like me will too.

    I call upon all you Hit ‘n Runners to do the same.

  5. In any future H&R post on the presidential race, I think we can all take certain things as written:

    1) DONDEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!: “Giuliani is the most libertarian of all the candidates in my own personal Bizarro world!”
    2) Edward: “Ron Paul isn’t winning! Haw haw!”
    3) Timothy: “DONDEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!”

    So DONDEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! and Edward, please feel free to do new and interesting things with your free time – we’ve all seen your one-trick pony, and we agree with you as much as we’re ever going to.

    Timothy, I suggest you keep doing what you do, because it amuses me.

  6. joe,

    It’s not even the first inning. In fact, it’s merely Spring Training.

  7. Uh, given how front-loaded the primaries are going to be, it’s gonna be more like a 100-yard-dash than a baseball game.

  8. I think it’ll be more like the steeplechase. Or maybe curling. Yeah, curling.

  9. I stopped reading after the weak-assed insult to Eric Dondero’s patriotism.

  10. Romney has grown on me. Very handsome, family man, competent looking. Makes me feel good.

    He does bad in the national polls but is leading where it counts.

  11. The main stream media consistently ignore Ron Paul’s substantial lead over Duncan Hunter.

  12. Romney lost me with “Sick people need marijuana, but we can’t give it to them!” and “We need a program just as powerful as ‘just say no!'”

  13. I’m personally offended by the suggestion that Edward is capable of doing anything new or interesting.

  14. Let’s all be real quiet so Edward can try to think of something interesting to add to the conversation…..Edward?? Anything?? Oh well.

  15. He does bad in the national polls but is leading where it counts.

    In Grand Chalupa’s pants,

  16. DONDEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

    See Also:

    CHALUPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

    EDWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARD!

  17. Clinton vs. Rudy

    Wow.

    :'[

  18. I want Bush 2000 back. Remember the guy who said we should stay out of nation building and cut taxes? I want him.

  19. FOOLS! EDWARD IS WITH THE KGB! INFLUENCING WEAK AMERICANS WITH MORE SOVIET LIES!

  20. I want Bush 2000 back. Remember the guy who said we should stay out of nation building and cut taxes? I want him.

    He did the second thing.

    Going to any place where young republicans gather is pretty depressing. To them (and the National Review crowd for that matter) conservativism now means fidelity to Bush. The American Conservative, a paleo-conservative publication, had an article called the “Madness of Crowds” talking about this fact.

    The right’s defending of the Iraq adventure is depressing for those of us who expect that conservative thinkers, if not politicians, to have some principles.

  21. Ah, the key “Sexless keyboard commando” demographic. Yes, it’s certainly a key voting bloc.

  22. Grand Chalupa,

    Bush didn’t cut taxes. He raised taxes, but pushed back the due date.

  23. thoreau,

    No wonder it never seems the candidates are speaking to me, and the issues I care about.

    I think I’m suffering from pander envy.

  24. Chalupa, since I gather you (like me) would like a foreign policy much like that the folks at TAC endorse, what about Romney’s chest thumping about a “long struggle” and “doubling Guantanamo”, etc?

  25. Why am I being attacked for raising the Ron Paul factor? Isn’t this still a libertarian blog? Isn’t Ron Paul the great libertarian hope? Are you all giving up, caving in to the two-party stanglehold? Once people really get to know Ron Paul and where he stands, the numbers will change. Have faith!

  26. Keep trying Edward. You’ll do something new and interesting one day! I have faith in that!

  27. What could be more interesting than an authentic libertarian candidate, Sparky? Ron Paul is the man. Don’t be depressed by the poll numbers. In the free market of political ideas, the best will…oops! Well, keep the faith anyway.

  28. Cesar,

    I don’t buy the argument that terrorists picked up in Afghanistan should have the same rights granted to US citizens under our constitution or that the Geneva convention applies to Al-Qaida. And the American Conservative’s paranoia about the Jews and willingness to see the best in people like Hamas and the government of Iran sort of creeps me out.

    When it comes to foreign policy, I see a lot of good in Hillary Clinton and could actually see myself voting for her if we had a Republican congress to check her big government impulses. I personally wish we’d leave the Middle East alone and let that whole region destroy its self but save Ron Paul nobody is advocating that.

  29. PAY ATTENTION TO MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

  30. Going to any place where young republicans gather is pretty depressing. To them (and the National Review crowd for that matter) conservativism now means fidelity to Bush.

    It’s certainly depressing, though I think for reasons other than fidelity to Bush. Most young Republicans I know (a few I might add) are now claiming to be libertarian. And this grates my nerves. Of course, they support Guiliani, Romney, F. Thompson, and their ilk.

  31. Most young Republicans I know (a few I might add) are now claiming to be libertarian. And this grates my nerves. Of course, they support Guiliani, Romney, F. Thompson, and their ilk.

    I really hope they don’t destroy the word “libertarian” like the left destroyed “liberal”.

    In fact I still wish we were called liberals, since its a good description if you take the word literally.

  32. The difference between obligatory disappointment and history making success, will be a matter of how many folks show up. So I figure if I decide it’s worth the risk, maybe 10,000 other guys like me will too.

    The local paper says that the organizers are expecting 40,000 people to show up.

    I am sorely tempted to drive over and pull a straw for Ron.

  33. It’s certainly depressing, though I think for reasons other than fidelity to Bush. Most young Republicans I know (a few I might add) are now claiming to be libertarian. And this grates my nerves. Of course, they support Guiliani, Romney, F. Thompson, and their ilk.

    To be fair though, I don’t see that much intellectual depth among the Daily Kos crowd either.

    I think 24 hour news is to blame. Read “The Making of the American Conservative Mind”, a history of National Review. When that magazine started you had philosophers, linguists, economists and classicists writing for it. Today they’re all journalists and lawyers.

  34. I really hope they don’t destroy the word “libertarian” like the left destroyed “liberal”.

    Too late.

    Glenn Beck claims to have libertarian ideals, but in the next breath decries immigrants and drug use, etc.

    I say we hurry up and get a new term before we get lumped into the neocon version of the word “libertarian.”

    I’m thinking “Last Real Americans.”

  35. How about Constitutionalists?

  36. I’m still reeling from last night’s Dem-Labor Panderfest. Christ, that was sick.

  37. Clinton vs. Rudy

    Wow.

    Yeah it’s like a nightmare version of the “Death is not an option” game.

  38. Taktix,

    Maybe we should call ourselves niggers (or bitches). The statists will be afraid to co-opt that one.

  39. College Republicans call themselves libertarian when they’re trying to get laid.

    Also:

    DONDEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

  40. The absolute worst is Clinton vs. Rudy vs. Bloomberg.

    A subway election. God help us all.

  41. College Republicans call themselves libertarian when they’re trying to get laid.

    Speaking of College Republicans trying to get laid….

    http://www.news-tribune.net/local/local_story_219210228.html

    The chairman of the Clark County Republican Party, who last month was elected president of the Young Republican National Federation, has resigned both posts, apparently in the wake of a criminal investigation.

    “However, on Friday the Clark County Sheriff’s Department began investigating Murphy for alleged criminal deviate conduct – potentially a class B felony – after speaking with a 22-year-old man who claims that on July 31, Murphy performed an unwanted sex act on him while the man slept in a relative’s Jeffersonville home.

  42. Now see, I don’t know for sure but I bet the college Republican in question really hated gays and the Homosexual Agenda (R). And that why I’m suspicious of someone who really, really doesn’t like gays.

  43. Now see, I don’t know for sure but I bet the college Republican in question really hated gays and the Homosexual Agenda (R). And that why I’m suspicious of someone who really, really doesn’t like gays.

    Pretty depressingly predictable, isn’t it?

    As a libertarian, the very fact that anyone is paying attention to the presidential race at this stage (or that candidates are active at all) is very depressing. Everyone should have a better way of spending their summer that wonder which thief/scoundrel is to start screwing them over in January 2009.

  44. Goddamn, do I ever need to read my posts before I hit “submit comment.”

  45. God I miss Bill Clinton,

    Ya knew you were getting bent over, but he made you feel like you really needed it and in fact were gonna like it. Best politician ever.

  46. DONDEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

    KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!

  47. We just used the “Khaaaaaaaaaan” reference in today’s Shatner Acting Generator posting at Urkobold. It’s still an effective way of communicating middle-aged angst.

  48. Bill Maher considers himself a libertarian as well. At least he’s against prohibition – but not quite what I would consider a libertarian.

    Hmmm… new name for us libertarians now that the statists have jacked it… I’m leaning towards “Last Real Americans,” and as an ex-pat that might be an even better label.

  49. So you guys are giving up on Ron Paul then?

  50. Ron Paul did rather well, actually in the latest Newsweek Poll – 2% nationwide. Yes, that’s the same as he had 5 months ago. But it indicates his support isn’t dropping like McCain’s.

    But alas, Paul didn’t do well in the Cook Report poll released just yesterday. A mere 1% nationwide. He was down there with the likes of Tommy Thompson, Huckabee, and Jim Gilmore who has already dropped out.

    It’s getting late in the game. Ron Paul has been campaigning for 7 months now. And he’s still at 1 and 2%. No improvement at all.

    Still the faithful are sticking with him. One wonders how much longer they’ll be writing out the checks to him?

  51. I hope I am not alone on this site in thinking that polls 15 months before an election are absolutely irrelevant. .

    “Bill Maher considers himself a libertarian as well.”

    Bill Maher is a libertarian only if the definition of libertarian is: one who spouts tired liberal platitudes all day with an occassional insult to seem edgy.

  52. Paul won’t win, but that isn’t the point. He’s getting his message out there on the best soapbox he’s ever going to get, and with so many questionably self-labeled libertarians out there (might have to include myself) its good the country gets to see a real one. Just don’t ask him about immigration.

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