Betting on Human Survival—John Tierney Makes a Long Bet


Newly minted New York Times science columnist, John Tierney, makes a long bet that the doomsters such as Martin Rees are wrong and the humanity will still be around by 2100. Tierney writes about his bet in his Times column which optimistically begins by noting that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' absurd doomsday clock is a bunch of hooey:

Sixty ago years, a group of physicists concerned about nuclear weapons created the Doomsday Clock and set its hands at seven minutes to midnight. Now, the clock's keepers, alarmed by new dangers like climate change, have moved the hands up to 11:55 p.m.

My first reaction was a sigh of relief. After all, the 1947 doomsday prediction marked the start of a golden age. Never have so many humans lived so long — and maybe never so peacefully — as during the past 60 years. The per-capita rate of violence, particularly in the West, seems remarkably low by historical standards. If the clock's keepers are worried once again, their track record suggests we're in for even happier days.

Whole Tierney column here.

I'm going to see if I can horn in on Tierney's action as well. And like him I hope to be around to be vindicated, but I'm not going to bet on my personal survival to 2100 just yet. On the other hand, I could make a lot more money if I would just write a book that predicts that the END IS NIGH. Hmmm.