Conservative Talk Shows Possibly Overestimate GOP Chances

Some election chatter, for what it's worth… I just cast my ballot in northern Virginia, and noticed a strong James Webb presence vs. a weak George Allen presence at the polls. Not a huge surprise in a Democratic chunk of Fairfax. But on the way to the school house, I tuned into Laura Ingraham's talk show and heard an ornery Republican voter call in from Falls Church.

"Did you see any tie-died shirts?" Ingraham asked, broadcasting somewhere from 1972.

"No," said Joe Republican. "I saw a lot of conservatively dressed people. I think they are coming out for George Allen. And they said 1500 people had already voted in the precinct."

Some facts about Falls Church. It's a tony suburb of D.C. (it has two metro stops) that voted 65-34 for Kerry over Bush and 73-26 for Democrat Tim Kaine in last year's governor's race. In neither race did one precinct see 1500 voters show up. That kind of turnout is unheard of. So unless Joe Republican got his facts wrong, or somehow got the numbers for the entire city, there's a massive Jim Webb vote coming out. I'm guessing the voter is confused, but Webb is still performing well.

The Webb volunteers, by the way, were nervous about the race and about what kind of senator Webb would make. "He's more conservative than half of the Republicans in there right now," said one of them. "He's not going to do what the Democrats tell him. He's going to be, 'I'm from Virginia. I'm going to do what I want.'"

UPDATE: Or, maybe the talk radio caller was wrong. I was voter #351 in a precint that cast 2,673 votes in 2004 and went 59/40 for Kerry.

Comments

[Bryan Caplan]

I'm guessing the voter is confused.

Always a safe bet.

[D.A. Ridgely]

Some facts about Falls Church. It's a tony suburb of D.C. (it has two metro stops) that voted 65-34 for Kerry over Bush and 73-26 for Democrat Tim Kaine in last year's governor's race.

Well, almost. I don't know how tony Falls Church can be considered, given that I live literally a stone's throw from its border. Anyway, I don't believe either metro stop is actually in the City of Falls Church, which is where your links lead. I think the West Falls Church station is in Fairfax County and I am certain that the East Falls Church station is, oddly enough, in the East Falls Church precinct of Arlington. Now, on the other hand, the Falls Church postal zip code area covers several voting precincts which it would take a great stretch of the imagination to call tony even by the standards of their largely poor and immigrant populations, few of whom wear tie-died shirts either, for that matter.

[ChrisO]

Another amazing factoid: neither Falls Church metro stop is actually in Falls Church.

Va. races end up being Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax Co./inner-city parts of Richmond and Tidewater (heavily Democrat) vs. the rest of the state (heavily GOP). I still think that Allen will win in a photo-finish, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

[ChrisO]

D.A., great minds think alike. 🙂

[dhex]

tie-dies? man, boomer culture wars are weird.

[Brian]

Reminds me of my grandpa ranting about hippies well into the early 90s.

Overheard where I voted:

Is that Freedom Rock, man?
Yeah.
Well turn it up man!

[PiGuy]

I can just see it now: "Dead Heads for Webb!"

[Alan Vanneman]

Anyway, if two metro stops makes FC "tony," how "tony" is DC, because we have about a hundred, man! Shit, I dropped my joint! See ya at the revolution, dude.

[Evan!]

I think Laura Ingraham has been watching a little too much South Park lately...

[joe]

Did you get to hear the lovely Ms.Ingraham tell her listeners to crank call the voter fraud hotline?

It's funny, she's usually so concerned about election fraud. Why would she go and do that?

[John]

Joe you truly are one of the most humorless people on earth. I don't care if Al Frankin said that. That is funny. As a matter of fact, I may go prank call the voter fraud hotline right now. Thanks for the tip.

[Evan!]

Joe,

you serious?

Another absurdity, further "boy-who-cried-wolf"-ifying the meaning of "Breaking News Alert": I tuned into Faux News Channel during my cardio warmup at lunch, and as I was hopping off the machine, they swooped in with the standard ALERT graphics and sounds effects, blaring BREAKING NEWS ALERT! I waited for a second before pulling my headphones out, expecting something at least somewhat noteworthy. So what, you ask, was the breaking news that they were alerting me to? Oh, none of than Swarzennegger and wife Shriver cast vote!!!!!!!!!!!" I shit you not. That's not breaking news. That's not news period. Hell, that's not even casual conversation fodder. FUCK!

[Evan!]

John, that's not funny, it's fraud. Why would that be funny? What's funny about that? Election fraud is a serious matter, and you think it's "funny" to screw with the fraud hotline so as to obscure the real fraud complaints? Yeah, man, ha fucking ha. Wow, a real side-splitting knee-slapper, that one. Ingraham should have her own sitcom with that kind of wit.

What the fuck kind of drugs are you on?

[John]

Evan!

Yes, election fraud is an issue, but its too fucking late to do anything about now. More importantly, every time you try to do anything about it, like require IDs and clean out the voting rolls, people like Joe have a fainting fit. No I am not going to make a prank phone call, but for Joe to claim outrage when he anyone who has ever read one of his posts knows good and well he wouldn't give a rats ass about fraud if it wasn't committed by a Republican makes his faux outrage worthy of ridicule.

[joe]

I have enough of a sense of humor, John, to laugh my ass off at you for suddenly deciding that voter fraud is lighthearted, comical subject, after reading rant after rant you've posted about "illegals," dead people, and Democrats stealing elections.

[joe]

"More importantly, every time you try to do anything about (voter fraud), people like Joe have a fainting fit."

Except for, you know, when I'm an insane liberal moonbat for thinking easily-hacked electronic voting machines are a bad idea.

[GWB]

When the Democrats fail to take either the House or Senate, I'll let you "prognosticators" pucker up and kiss my asshole. Tongues welcome.

[D Timmerman]

I was a little surprised to see how little showing the democrats and republicans made at my local precinct (North Point, Reston in Fairfac Co.). There was a girl there sort of half heartedly handing out the "how you should vote" forms for the Republicans and there were a bunch of signs, but that's about it.

Then again, there was almost no one there voting, either.

[mk]

Ingraham should have her own sitcom with that kind of wit
She did have a talk show for awhile. I saw one episode and it was the most awkward, boring half hour of tv I've ever seen. The live audience looked like they were dying to get out of there. I eventually switched channels but only after enjoying it in a "gruesome car-accident rubbernecking" kind of way.

[Brian Courts]

So what, you ask, was the breaking news that they were alerting me to? Oh, none of than Swarzennegger and wife Shriver cast vote!!!!!!!!!!!" I shit you not. That's not breaking news. That's not news period. Hell, that's not even casual conversation fodder. FUCK!

OT, but yep, it is seriously beyond parody what is considered "Breaking News" these days - like this from CNN's website today, complete with red banner at the top of the page: "Breaking News >> Britney Spears files for divorce from her husband Kevin Federline, citing irreconcilable differences."

[D.A. Ridgely]

But, um, joe, are you all that concerned about voter fraud?

Didn't you write elsewhere: "And for what? Can you point to a single election that has been determined by vote fraud in my lifetime (I'm 33)? Is there a single sitting official you can identify who was improperly awarded his seat? How about large-scale voter fraud rings - has even one been found to be operating?"

Or did I misunderstand you?

[R C Dean]

Is there a single sitting official you can identify who was improperly awarded his seat?

There's actually a pretty good case to be made that the fairly narrow margin of Wisconsin Gov. Doyle's victory a few years ago is more than covered by very anomalous high turnouts in certain inner city precincts.

Oh, and have we already forgotten the debt JFK owes to the efforts of the Daley machine in Chicago?

[D.A. Ridgely]

R.C., JFK doesn't count. He was a Democrat.

[Homer Simpson]

RC,

You forget, in joe's world, all Democrats are good and pure and all Republicans are corrupt and evil.

[Eric the .5b]

To be fair, I heard some guy the other day going on about how the 2000 election only upset Democrats because they'd had an iron-fisted monopoly on election fraud.

Partisans are funny.

[joe]

DA Ridgely,

Voter fraud is a threat. It's not an imminent threat.

If there is solid evidence that it is becoming an imminent threat, we may have to take action.

Absent such evidence, I'd advise against launching some ill-conceived campaign, with more than a little dose of right-wing ideology hidden behind obvious pretexts about promoting democracy, to address that threat. Lest we end up wasting enormous resources, and getting stuck in a quagmire.

But obviously, anyone who would adopt that position about such an obvious danger can't be right.

[joe]

RC,

"Oh, and have we already forgotten the debt JFK owes to the efforts of the Daley machine in Chicago?"

Like those "Democrats are racists, too" ads that the Republicans put out, arguments about voter fraud would be a lot more compelling if the photos weren't in black and white.

That was 46 years ago. Forty-six. Take the time between the end of Saddam Hussein's nuclear program and the beginning of the latest Iraq War, multiply by 4, and add a couple more years.

I was -13 years old when that happened. That's supposed to convince me that we need to put a big new set of bureacratic hurdles between citizens and the ballot box?

[joe]

Hey, speaking of partisans, take a look at this:

"WASHINGTON, Nov. 7 U.S. Newswire -- MoveOn.org Political Action is offering a $250,000 reward for new material evidence leading to a felony conviction for an organized effort of partisan voter suppression or electronic voting fraud.

Throughout the day accusations of election fraud and voter suppression incidents have been flooding into state and federal authorities throughout the country. In Virginia, the FBI has launched a criminal investigation into charges of voter suppression. In 20 Congressional districts, NRCC robocalls appearing to come from Democrats harassed voters with repeated calls in an apparently coordinated campaign to suppress the vote.

Complementing an earlier reward for whistleblowers, MoveOn's reward is being offered to anyone who provides this information."

So, how about it, DA? Any conservatives out there putting their money where their mouths are to combat election fraud?

You're big believers in markets, right? How come the Commies at Moveon.org beat you to the punch? Could it have something to do with your line of patter being bullshit?

[D.A. Ridgely]

Nice try, joe. Change the focus, attack and hope people forget the original point. When all else fails, just insult.