Foley's Fallout

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At the end of a long and pretty interesting essay about the degeneration of the Republican revolution, Time pastes in a new poll about the upcoming election. One of the items:

Did the disclosure about Foley's sexually explicit instant messages to teenage congressional pages and the handling of this situation by the House Republican leadership make you less likely to vote for the Republican candidate in your district, more likely, or did it really have no effect on how you will vote?

Less likely 25%; More likely 4%; No effect 68%

Whole thing here.

NEXT: The Coming Democratic Congress?

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  1. More likely? I didn’t RTFA. I understand no difference or less likely, but who would be more likely? That’s weird.

    “I wasn’t gonna vote republican, but those transcripts really made me think. This time I’m gonna do it.”

  2. The way the media cycle goes, the Foley scandal will be ancient history by next month. Divided government would probably be a good thing, but it’s just not that easy to get all worked up arguing for Statist Party A or Statist Party B.

  3. I am guessing the 4% are just huge fans of the movie Airplane! and thought that Foley reminded them of the pilot:

    “Billy, have you ever seen a grown man naked?”

  4. kohlrabi,

    I bet the 4% “more likely” responses are some sort of user error, like punching the wrong chad or something, but I suppose there are people who are committed Republicans and think that Foley was somehow trapped by the Democrats, or just see that this scandal has put the party in a bad position, and want to rally to help save the party. Or want to put a finger in the eye of pollsters they assume are lefty journalists or academics.

  5. kohlrabi — The current wishful thinking in certain Republican circles (e.g., right-wing talk radio) is that the current media frenzy and Democratic efforts to milk it might precipitate a “Wellstone funeral”-type backlash among the voters.

  6. More likely? I didn’t RTFA. I understand no difference or less likely, but who would be more likely? That’s weird.

    • My Representative is the kind of person we need in D.C. to clean up this mess.”
    • “Democrats are worse than Republicans on the issue I worry about, and this mess means they really need my vote to stay in power.”
    • “I was going to vote Republican anyway, but on this poll marking ‘more likely’ is a stronger vote for my party than marking ‘no effect.'”
  7. I’d guess those 4% are the “this just a Democrat/gay dirty-tricks campaign against Republicans” tinfoil-hat types. You know: Leadership held on to the emails for a year, but the media held on to the IMs for a month, so it’s clearly all the media’s fault. “The scandal here is that there is a scandal” is actually a phrase I’ve heard uttered with respect to this.

  8. Hmmm. I’m trying very hard to imagine what members of Congress could possibly do to change my opinion of them.

    To a person, they have violated the most sacred trust of the people by violating the Constitution time and time again. What do I care if they email pages and or cover up the emailing of pages as well?

    I suppose outright treason would do it. Any of that waiting in the wings for either side’s October surprise? It won’t change who I vote for, but at least I can join the populace in appropriate anger as guided by media and the government.

  9. Is Dave Foley in trouble? Some sort of Canadian spy scandal?

  10. Goddamn Foley!!
    He is making it very hard for me to judge my gridlock votes this year. I was all set to vote against all incumbent Republicans just to try to wrestle some Democratic seats back. Don’t want to many though because I don’t want a Democratic majority. I want enough balance so that the congress can’t actually do anything. Dammit.

  11. “I was going to vote Republican anyway, but on this poll marking ‘more likely’ is a stronger vote for my party than marking ‘no effect.'”

    Larry A,

    Are you a carpenter by trade?
    I ask because you hit that nail very squarely.

  12. Maybe it is Foley’s pederast supporters.

  13. Maybe it is Foley’s pederast supporters.

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