Something Else to Worry About

Pakistan's Daily Times has some speculations about the most recent tape attributed to bin Laden:

…the United States has, as expected, rejected the truce offered by OBL, saying that the US government does not negotiate or deal with "terrorists". Since this is standard US policy and well known, it is difficult to believe that Al Qaeda did not anticipate this response. Why then would OBL deem fit to offer a truce? The classical Islamic tradition of warfare is to offer a truce to the adversary before an armed conflict. This was meant to give the adversary a chance to avoid a conflict. If the other side accepted it, there would be no war; if it rejected the offer, the Muslim armies would have a reason to fight. The tradition is a crude reflection of today's legal-technical concept of jus ad bellum (the reason for war) under the United Nations Security Council resolution mandating the use of force.

Seen from this perspective, could it be that the operative part of Al Qaeda's message is not the truce offer but the warning that more attacks are forthcoming? Evidently, if Al Qaeda knows that it cannot engage the US because the latter will not talk to it then it is merely fulfilling a legal obligation before launching the next series of attacks.

Have a nice day.

As long as we're speculating, am I the only one wondering if the guy in the last couple of bin Laden tapes is really Osama? I know the speaker has been "confirmed" as OBL, but for all I know the same experts would "confirm" Rich Little as Ronald Reagan. Then again, for all I know the CIA has developed a virtually infallible voice recognition technology. Anyone care to fill in this ignorant observer about (a) how certain you really can be about this sort of vocal analysis, and (b) whether there are any independent voice-recognition shops out there that have either endorsed or disputed the belief that this is bin Laden?

Comments

[mediageek]

Of course it's the real UBL.

Now, you'll excuse me as I must go attend today's Two Minute Hate.

[Mike Novick]

Every expert on the payroll has confirmed the voice on the tape. There's no way it was forged.

Unless some mentally unstable hacker hired by an evil mastermind came up with a brilliant way to forge recordings that fool even our experts. But that sort of thing only happens on 24.

[thoreau]

If word gets back to bin Laden that some people doubt the authenticity of the tape, maybe his next tape will go something like this:

I'm Osama yes I'm the real mullah
All those other Osamas are just imitating,
So won't the real Osama please stand up
Please stand up
Please stand up

[Jesse Walker]

How do they confirm it, Mike? What does that entail? How exact a science is it?

And what about the other payrolls? Have the intelligence services of Israel, Europe, Russia, China weighed in?

[thoreau]

Mike Novick is a character on 24 who spent most of the second season insisting that there's no way an important recording was forged.

[AC]

Max Frei has been quiet for a while; maybe the CIA hired him as an expert.

[Dan T.]

I?m no expert, but from what I?ve read on the subject it is generally accepted that each person?s voice has a ?fingerprint? with defining characteristics that can be analyzed with a computer to match certain ?points? with a known recording of the person?s voice.

So I am pretty sure that the CIA could confirm that the voice is or isn?t OBL with a reasonable level of certainty. Whether or not they actually performed this process and are telling us the truth about the results is another matter.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

How do WE know that this is the real Jesse Walker posting on this blog? Hunh?

[e]

Jesse,

There was a Slate "explainer" piece in 2002 which might answer your questions.

[Ed]

Show me a videotape of UBL holding last Sunday's New York Times sports pages and I might allocate an additional 5 seconds pondering his existence.

Lo-fi audio tape, mysterious couriers? Man, that's so 70s.

[thoreau]

Given the way that the book "Rogue State" took off after being endorsed by Osama's book club, I'm wondering if he could maybe do me a favor:

In his next message, tell the American people to go check out the Journal of Polymer Science Part B--Polymer Physics. December 15, 2005 issue, pages 3534-3548. If it has the same effect, I'll have the most widely cited paper in the history of science. Which means guaranteed faculty position at the school of my choice.

[fyodor]

e,

That's a good article. I only wonder: does anybody else have this voice identification softward? Why isn't Fox running showing the spectral analysis in flashy graphics for their viewers? Is this software some sort of secret technology or so expensive only the government would own it? I understand why only the government might employ the human experts, but surely the software must be worth it for someone like Fox or CBS? I guess Slate needs an explainer for the explainer! 🙂

[Jesse Walker]

Thanks for the Slate link, e. And thanks for explaining the "Mike Novick" joke, thoreau.

[Frank]

There's no need for voice verification. Osama Bin Laden is a creation of the US gov't. They put him in power, paid him, and now he's their official scapegoat. It's interesting how the US gov't can take down an entire government, and capture their leader, while they still haven't been able to find one random guy in the desert. Not only that, but they didn't exactly try very hard. They just sent enough troops to Afghanastan to make it look like they were trying hard to find him. I'd be willing to bet that OBL is sitting pretty in a US gov't safe house.

[John]

Voice recognition software has been around forever. Humans don't have particularly great hearing. This is why Rich Little may sound to us just like Ronald Reagan, but be very different when put through voice recognition software. I believe it was OBL. The problem is that it blows my theory that people like KOS and Moore on on Karl Rove's payroll with the mission of embarassing and marginalizing the Democrats. Since OBL sounds just like them, it perhaps means he is on Rove's payroll as well.

[thoreau]

fyodor-

That's an excellent idea! Voice pattern analysis right next to the American flag, network logo, running news summary, stock ticker, and terror alert level!

[Tim Meadows]

Don't forget the terminator robot.

[B.P.]

I just can't dig the new OBL release. I can appreciate it when an artist feels the need to get out of a rut and explore a little, but some of them need to realize that they should stick with the one or two things they do really well. This whole "Truce" thing is just so introspective and derivative. Give me the classics, like "Nightmare of Andalus" any day. Naturally, the producers will feel obligated to squeeze something out of this weak release for the hits compilation.

[Ad Homey Nim]

Frank,

Considering how hard it is for you to find a date for a Friday night and you'll take just about anybody, I'd say finding one guy in a country with a population of 110,000,000 is understandable.

[gaijin]

Wasn't the truce offer and it's islamo-legal-portendings of imminent tragedy part of the fear story in 2004 when OBL released his last tape?

In conclusion, I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida. No.

Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn't play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security.

Time may tell, but methinks OBL make big talk to compensate for little manthing.

[Native NYer]

Well, if there is going to be another attack I hope they pick someplace other than New York.

Maybe Mount Rushmore? That would sure bring the US economy to its knees, while minimizing the death toll.

But I'm not holding my breath. I think any of the posters on this board could orchestrate a better reign of terror than OBL has managed to do.

[Serafina]

I can't imagine voice recognition software is that difficult since the Hardy Boys' father gave them a voice recognition machine way back when, which they used to solve a mystery.

[fyodor]

Time may tell, but methinks OBL make big talk to compensate for little manthing.

Now, don't you believe everything you see on South Park!!

[Geoff Nathan]

Let me weigh in here with a professional opinion, as I actually work in an area related to speaker voice identification (speech production and perception), and I'm quite skeptical about just exactly how reliable such judgments are. The Slate article was relatively accurate, as such things go, but it's clear that the writer didn't completely understand some of the things Francis Nolan (a conference acquaintance of mine) said.
It's probably the case that some aspects of the sound spectrum of individual voices is unique, and probably attributable to such things as head size and the shape of the sinus cavities.
On the other hand, nobody has done serious investigative work on deliberate imitation of the Rich Little kind, so we have no idea whether those specific resonances can be spoofed.
So, given a poor quality Radio Shack portable tape recorder and built-in mike, who knows how much reliable fourth and fifth formant information is extractable by the NSA's spectrographs?
I would guess that the reliability of the identification was probably in the neighborhood of sixty or seventy percent--more than a grain of salt, but not a whole lot more.
Don't get me started on lie detecting speech recognizing software. There ain't no such thing. Period.

[Swillfredo Pareto]

Al Qaeda...is merely fulfilling a legal obligation before launching the next series of attacks.

Since when do these assclowns play by the rules?

[Ed]

Swillfredo,

Allah is a just and peaceful and law-abiding god.
And, um, there is no other, etc. etc.

[Russ 2000]

I'm waiting for fart recognition software. Cuz nobody ever fesses up.

[Third grader]

Russ,

Whoever denied it supplied it!

[Stevo Darkly]

Don't get me started on lie detecting speech recognizing software. There ain't no such thing. Period.

Hmm. Why did your voice quaver just a little bit when you said that?

[Todd Fletcher]

Nice theory, except I don't remember AQ releasing a tape offering a "truce" before 9/11.

[Geoff Nathan]

Don't get me started on lie detecting speech recognizing software. There ain't no such thing. Period.

Hmm. Why did your voice quaver just a little bit when you said that?

Just nerves. I'm fine. Really I am...

[Pro Libertate]

You know, has anyone compared OBL's voice pattern with Bert's? You know, from Sesame Street? No reason, just curious.

[The Osamulator]

For all of you Reason readers, here's a preview of my next tape:

All your base are belong to us.

Inshallah, my long-term goal is to get Christopher Walken to do my tapes for me.

[Eric the .5b]

You know, has anyone compared OBL's voice pattern with Bert's

Why? We've seen them together.

[Pro Libertate]

Eric, I don't want to come across as paranoid, but, well, I have reason to believe that those photos may have been doctored using modern, "digital" means. Possible involving "lasers". In order, of course, to confuse us about Evil Bert's and bin Laden's true natures.

[Bert]

You realize, naturally, that "natures" is serutan spelled backwards.

[Jennifer]

Was Frank serious? My sarcasm meter isn't working today.

[Eric the .5b]

Eric, I don't want to come across as paranoid, but, well, I have reason to believe that those photos may have been doctored using modern, "digital" means. Possible involving "lasers". In order, of course, to confuse us about Evil Bert's and bin Laden's true natures.

But...that could mean...

Egad!

[Pro Libertate]

Eric, go to the Sesame Street site. Note any curious omissions? What does PBS know? When did it know it?

[Terry]

Osama Bin Laden is dead. No one has seen or heard from him since October 2002, when he was last seen at Tora Bora.
The October 2004 just before the election video confirmed it.
It was obviously spliced together from previous videos, nothing in it to show the date, audio bad, whole video not shown, and finally, the MSM did not show, although they did, a one on one breakdown comparison with other videos of Osama and the MSM quickly buried the story.
Why? Because it was obvious that it wasn't Osama in the present, meaning he is dead, thus giving Bush a political boost right before the election, the last thing the MSM wanted to do.
It truly is fascinating that this is still be discussed. Actually, unbelievable.

[ChrisO]

It's amazing how that Bert is Evil shit doesn't get less funny, isn't it? Sesame Street and the Henson organization should embrace the evil side of their muppets, rather than suppress it...

[Douglas Fletcher]

I believe it was long-time muppeteer Frank Oz who did the voice of Bert. Maybe he is taking a little time off once in a while from his latest career as a film director to make Bin Laden tapes, just as a a diversion.

[Pro Libertate]

Ozama????

[biologist]

Terry, so why doesn't the administration come out with this information now? OBL is dead, Bush's poll numbers could use the boost, take some heat/ attention off Rove, Abramoff, etc.

maybe because if the boogeyman OBL were dead, the administration wouldn't be able to bully and scare people into doing what they want so readily.

[fyodor]

Was Frank serious?

I think so. But...hard to say!!

[Pro Libertate]

He wasn't being serious, but he was being Frank.

[Jennifer]

If Frank were right, that would be the most comforting story I've read since 9-11; it would mean our government was being run by a bunch of brilliant Machiavellian geniuses, as opposed to a gaggle of incompetent fuckwits.

[Crusader Rabbit]

Ed and Terry have it right. Osama is dead, killed at Tora Bora. Otherwise, why wouldn't we see a video of him? They can take it with a camera phone, even in his cave.

Besides, if the voice recognition software is so good, then isn't there great software out there for splicing pieces of OBL's words together from past tapes into a blurry blather that sounds like new?

[Jennifer]

Osama is dead, killed at Tora Bora. Otherwise, why wouldn't we see a video of him?

Maybe because he's suffered some bad injuries or scarring, and does not want anybody to be able to see that.

[Christopher Walken]

For all of you Reason readers, here's a preview of my next tape:

More Cowbell!

[Kwix]

And the quote of the day goes to Jennifer:
If Frank were right, that would be the most comforting story I've read since 9-11;it would mean our government was being run by a bunch of brilliant Machiavellian geniuses, as opposed to a gaggle of incompetent fuckwits.

[Eric the .5b]

Eric, go to the Sesame Street site. Note any curious omissions? What does PBS know? When did it know it?

Everything I thought was true...was a lie.

[mynermyner]

On one of the yap shows, a (ex-CIA?) guest hypothesised that OBL has had reconstructive surgery to alter his appearance to avoid detection. It would make no sense to show the new face to the world. Even without an entirely new look why advertise any of your appearance with all that bounty out there. No guarantee that everyone you ever come across will keep your secret location. Even a haircut could get you killed or caught.

[TheDumbFish]

Maybe because he's suffered some bad injuries or scarring, and does not want anybody to be able to see that.

I think the guy is dead, but that's the only reason that I could think of that would explain why he might be alive but not willing to do another OBL video. He was popping a video off every other week before. Now he can't get his hands on a camera?

For those who think he's alive - how do you explain OBL's sudden preference for audio?

[David T]

Terry: "The October 2004 just before the election video confirmed it [bin Laden's death]
It was obviously spliced together from previous videos, nothing in it to show the date..."

Huh?

"Despite entering the fourth year after September 11, Bush is still deceiving you and hiding the truth from you, and therefore the reasons are still there for a repeat of what happened."

"Your security is not in the hands of [Democratic presidential candidate John F.] Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands, and each state that does not harm our security will remain safe."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10079-2004Oct29.html

Now you might say that bin Laden anticipated he might be killed and so back in 2001 he made a tape for posthumous use talking about the "fourth year after September 11." But what about the reference to Bush and Kerry, which would make no sense unless Kerry was Bush's opponent? You really think that at the time of Tora Bora, he knew that Kerry would win the Democratic nomination two and a half years later? That would make bin Laden a rather more brilliant US-politics pundit than I think he is...

[Terry]

David T., uh, do you have proof that Osama said that?
No, you can not tell from the audio, on the contrary, since the audio is out of sync with what the person in the film is saying, and unclear, and the words that Osama use are not words he has used before, and the video and audio
are purposely of poor quality, this suggests, my point, that this is not Osama. And the whole reason they go out of their way to make it look like it is, and do a very poor job of it, is because he is DEAD.
THE VIDEO IS PROOF HE IS DEAD BECAUSE OF ITS POOR QUALITY MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO DATE THE VIDEO AND THUS PROVE ITS OSAMA ON THE TAPE.
If he is alive, why go through the trouble of making such a poor video?
God, use your common sense.

[crimethink]

David T,

Maybe he did nine different recordings in Jan 2004, one for each possible Dem nominee. Well, except for Kucinich ... I mean he's not THAT crazy!