The Sunni Vote

Like everyone else, I'm interested in seeing the final turnout figures for Sunday's elections. I'm even more interested in the Sunni turnout, since that's the group that was widely expected to boycott the polls. I haven't seen any numbers yet -- and at this stage, all numbers are still unreliable -- but most reports seem to say it was low. On the other hand, Patrick Cockburn in The Independent says it was "higher than expected." (A Zogby poll had predicted only 9% of Iraqi Sunnis would vote.)

The AP notes that "Voters in the different provinces were not asked when they voted whether they were Sunnis or Shiites, so an estimate of Sunni turnout alone might be hard to reach."

Comments

[chthus]

I'm not getting my hopes up that we'll ever get a reliable and agreed upon breakdown of ethnic/religious voting percentages. There's simply no way of tallying it. Exit polls may be flawed for exacting figures, but they can give you ball park, and multiple ones can give you the ability to zero in. But in this election there were none taken, so we lack the best way of answering the breakdown question. Since I've heard anecdotal tails ranging from empty polling places in Fallujah to polling places in Fallujah with lines wrapping three times around the block, I'd say we will get a wide range of estimates. No standard form of counting this breakdown, individual anecdotes rarely covering more than a few of several thousand spots, emotional and political shadings of personal assessments: don't hold your breath.

The overall vote percentage will have to do, and those who truly want a breakdown will probably do best to wait to see the ethnic/religious breakdown of the electees as the least flawed assessment.

[rst]

I surfed the news on TV and I found it amusing how they (ABC was especially bad) were trying to spin the election results in Sunni towns into overall disappointment, as if anybody realistically expected the Sunnis to bother. They know they've been sticking it to the Shiites and Kurds without the K-Y for 20+ years now, so the chances of them getting any kind of representation in their government was slim to none anyway. Why would they leave the house? The best that could possibly have happened is that they'd survive the trip.

[joe]

Revenge may feel good, rst, but if the goal was to create a robust, sustainable democracy that protects human rights, writing off an ethnic group that is a fifth of the country's population isn't a very wise idea.

If the Sunnis don't get "any kind of representation in the government," might that be an impediment to the advancement of democracy's image throughout the (mainly Sunni) Arab world?

"Democracy meand the Americans let infidel Shiites have all the power and persecute pious Muslims." Yeah, that'll work.

[joe]

Also, it doesn't much matter whether the tiny number of Sunnis is Basra turned out in large numbers. When people talk about "Sunni turnout," they're talking about turnout in the communities in the center of the country that have Sunni majorities or substantial minorities. The argument that we can't know the true level of "Sunni" turnout is a red herring. The issue is, how was turnout in Tikrit, Baghdad (other than Sadr City), Falluja, and Mosul?

[Call me snake]

joe, relax: The Sunni provinces have veto power over the final constitution, so significant compromise is necessary to move the country forward.

Walker: You wouldn't perhaps be asking about Sunni turnout to find a chink in the armor of yesterday's positive outcome? Perhaps you missed your calling as an LA Times reporter. Seriously, will turnout numbers ever be reliable? What's the sampling criteria?

In any case, I predict the Zogby poll will be blown away by 3x or more. All the Sunni triangle anecdotal evidence I saw (CNN cameras in Ramadi and Baquba, et al) showed busy polling stations.

Best Moment: Peter Jennings bemoaning low turnout in Mosul 3 minutes after Martha Raddatz showed a jammed Mosul polling station.

[R C Dean]

Revenge may feel good, rst, but if the goal was to create a robust, sustainable democracy that protects human rights, writing off an ethnic group that is a fifth of the country's population isn't a very wise idea.

Similarly, allowing an ethnic group with a history of brutal oppression and mass slaughter of its fellow countrymen to hold the process of democratization and liberalization hostage is also not a very wise idea.

[chthus]

14.2 million Iraqis registered to vote. As far as I can tell, there's no way to tell what percentage of this is Sunni(Arab). While we know 20% of the poulation is Sunni-A, we don't know what percentage is of legal voting age (it could be higher or lower than population percentage). Given all of these unknowns, I don't think there's anything fishy about saying we can't know the true level. The best estimate we can get, avoiding unreliable personal assessment from any parties, will likely be from the number of Sunni-A candidates elected.

Depending upon how and where the votes are counted, there may be a second, more accurate way of assessing. If the ballots indicate where they were filed, or are initially counted at the individual polling places, then number of Sunni-A voters can be counted by how many votes where cast in their polling places. This falls apart if there is too much overlap at key Baghdad polling places, or if ballots are brought together (and origin unmarked) before being counted.

The final problem comes from just what percentage we are looking for. Percent of Sunni-A vote as part of population of voting age? Or as part registered voters? The former shows overall involvement, and the latter shows involvement by those interested. Both are important, but I expect each will have it's place in certain places and arguments.

[joe]

"The Sunni provinces have veto power over the final constitution, so significant compromise is necessary to move the country forward."

snake, the important outcome we need to hope for is that the culture and habits and democracy become established as mainstream values throughout Iraqi society. The electoral practices and systems of checks and balances mean nothing if this cultural change does not occur. For this election to be a success, it needs to be the beginning of a process of acculturation. The veto power you point out is probably a wise structural element, but it's not going to turn Sunni Iraqis into democrats.

RC, yes, there are disasters awaiting no matter which way you turn. Would you like sugar or sweet and low with your dogshit?

[Call me snake]

joe, you're making the perfect the enemy of the good. How can those democratic "culture and habits" be assimilated without the practical experience of the process, including a contentious, messy constitutional process?

It appears you are suggesting Iraqis must learn democracy as an abstract concept before implementing it?!!??

If I were cynical I'd say you were placing unrealistic benchmarks of success in place to insure the outcome is never satisfactory.

If I were cynical, that is.

[Jesse Walker]

You wouldn't perhaps be asking about Sunni turnout to find a chink in the armor of yesterday's positive outcome?

Trust me, Snake: I have no hope of ever finding a chink in the bubble you and the other Bushbots live in, and I gave up trying long ago.

[clarityiniowa]

joe -If the Sunnis don't get "any kind of representation in the government," might that be an impediment to the advancement of democracy's image throughout the (mainly Sunni) Arab world?

"Democracy meand the Americans let infidel Shiites have all the power and persecute pious Muslims." Yeah, that'll work.

I'm not a supporter of Bush, or, on the whole, of this war, but I don't think there was any way to entice more participation out of the Sunni, and delaying this initial round of voting wouldn't have helped. It would only have made the thugs look as if they'd successfully pressured the interim government. The proper response to the Sunni was "Here's your chance, take it or leave it." The fact that a number of them, apparently, took it despite the pressures against them is a positive sign.

Those who gripe about the Sunni being "excluded" from the elections ? I wonder how they feel about them, a minority of %20, running the whole country by brute force for the past, oh, three and a half decades or so. How fair was that?

Overall, I am cautiously optimistic as a result of yesterday. Most significantly as an indication that the administration, the military, and the interim government are learning to deal more successfully with the insurgency from a tactical standpoint. In using indigenous culture to advantage, such as asking Iraqi women who turned out to vote to help search other women for weapons and bombs, and using deceptive means to keep the foreign fighters and Ba'athist retreads off balance, the military and Iraqi police have demonstrated that progress can be made despite threats of continued violence, and that they can, when they bother to try, outthink the thugs.

I have some renewed hope that, perhaps, the U.S. will eventually get out of this with some of our dignity, and our chestnuts, relatively intact.

[Call me snake]

Now that's the Jesse Walker we know and love!!

Whoa, you pulled out the ultimate libertarian weapon: non-libertarians are automatons, conformists, etc.

I wouldn't dream of disturbing your/Reason's political/social/cultural self-fantasy as Kirk Douglas in "Lonely are the Brave."

[Jesse Walker]

Yes, Snake. When I described some people as automotons, what I really meant was that all non-libertarian are automotons. Bravo!

It is this ability to project wildly offbase new meanings onto everything you read -- to avoid engaging any idea that doesn't fit your tiny little map of the world -- that marks you as a bot.

[clarityiniowa]

To amplify my previous point, I don't think we, as passive observers having to take third and fourth hand reports for our only facts, give the average Iraqi enough credit for sophistication or understanding of democratic principles. I just heard an interview with an elderly man in Baghdad hooked up via satellite with his ex-patriate son in the U.S. The old man was proud that he and his immediate family braved violence and gunfire to vote, but held no resentment when he heard his son say he hadn't bothered. The old man basically said it was his son's democratic right to choose NOT to vote.

No different attitude or understanding there than a great many American citizens have of the democratic process.

[thoreau]

I have no doubt that Yusuf al Schmoe (Arabic for "Joe Schmoe") is a decent person who understands democracy.

The only question is whether that's enough to overcome the powerful forces with a vested interest in either continuing the violence or establishing a very illiberal regime. Many elected governments have turned rotten despite the inherent goodness of the citizens, and other elected governments have proven too weak to restore peace and order despite the resolve of the citizens.

To sum up: Yesterday's election was a historic and wonderful event, and it bodes well for the future, but many key tests remain. My crow is in the oven, but I won't remove it and start eating until we've seen a little more of how things progress. I'm not talking about waiting until the second election cycle under the new (and not yet written) Constitution, I'm just talking about seeing whether the violence abates over the next several months.

[thoreau]

Also, I could say that the true test is whether or not the US suffers another major terrorist attack. It has been said by many on this forum that we're spreading democracy to end the spawning of Middle Eastern terrorists. If a lack of democracy in Iraq is a reason why 19 non-Iraqis (many from elite educational backgrounds) attacked the US on 9/11, then no doubt yesterday's election will reduce the number of young Saudi men willing to die while attacking American civilians.

What?

[clarityiniowa]

thoreau -

I agree with your take, and, ordinarily, my tongue would be as firmly in my cheek as yours is. However, like the stock market, I think a little bit of faith right now is necessary for the process to continue on any kind of path to success. Not a lot - and I certainly don't mean to abandon my position that the invasion was supported by false contentions or that the aftermath has been hugely bungled up till now - but I do think that communicating a belief that the Iraqi people are capable of moving forward despite ongoing critical obstacles is an essential part of helping ensure that they will.

[Ken Shultz]

"Majorities of both Sunni Arabs (82%) and Shiites (69%) also favor U.S. forces withdrawing either immediately or after an elected government is in place."

"The poll also found that of Iraq's ethnic and religious groups, only the Kurds believe the U.S. will "help" Iraq over the next five years, while half (49%) of Shiites and a majority (64%) of Sunni Arabs believe the U.S. will "hurt" Iraq."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=957

I was listening to Warren Olney's "Which Way LA?" last night, and he had Zogby on talking about the poll results. Although I can't find the reference to this statistic, Zogby said that his polls show that almost 90% of those who support Sadr's slate and a majority of those who intend to vote for al-Sistani's slate support the establishment of an Islamic state.

...That is to say, there are probably many among the Shiites who support Democracy right up to the point that they get their guys in power and no further. The danger is that the Shiite portion of Iraq could become about as democratic as Iran.

[clarityiniowa]

Ken - Well, as the late great Doris Day said "Que Sera, Sera."

The question is, having moved under the banner of democracy, what can we (meaning the coalition and interim government) do to prevent that if it is the democratic choice of Iraqis to establish such a government?

[chthus]

"Majorities of both Sunni Arabs (82%) and Shiites (69%) also favor U.S. forces withdrawing either immediately or after an elected government is in place."

Does that mean the remaining 18% Sunni-A and 31% Shiites would like the US to leave sometime between now and when the elcted govt is in place? That's about as meaningful as the likely true statement that most Americans will die today or after the next US election.

Ahh statistics.

In other news, HRC just collapsed before a scheduled talk. Not sure of much else yet.

[Brett]

I agree with clarityiniowa, the Sunnis were given an opportunity and they chose to pass. joe, if anybody is at fault for writing off the Sunnis as an ethnic group, I'd suggest they first look themselves in the mirror. Over the past 18 months, many of their leaders have seemingly preferred civil war to the democratic process.

While I realize that the respective Sunni and Kurdish situations cannot be compared as apples to apples (especially since 1992), it was good to see one ethnic minority group get on board with the process.

There's a long road ahead, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

[clarityiniowa]

Well, that's ONE way to avoid anti-abortion protesters.

[Guy in the back row]

One good item out of the whole election debacle is how firmly Zaquari came out against the vote in particular and government by popular representation in general.

So it seems we have the arabs who want a strong leader to do their thinking for them versus the more responsible/intelligent ones.

You can't make this stuff up!

[Call me snake]

Thanks, Walker: I am sufficiently cowed to understand that my "tiny map" must be expanded through tireless effort.

Perhaps only then will I achieve the requisite level of self-importance necessary to enter your enlightened caste. Then I may label people "bots." I look forward to the journey.

[pococurante]

as the late great Doris Day said

OT note to Clarity: Doris Day is not dead. Maybe you're thinking of Dinah Shore.

[clarityiniowa]

poco - I stand, rather, I sit, corrected. Doris can't be feeling at all well by now, though, I imagine. How the hell old is she?

[clarityiniowa]

Regarding Ken's earlier point, I think, in touting "democracy," and in his constant call for religious values in American public life, President Bush has left no room for retreat if a Shiite majority in Iraq does indeed create a constitutional, Islamic republic modeled on Iran. This has been his biggest political mistake here, it seems to me. The only way he can backtrack is to start disconnecting "Islam" from "democracy," or start talking about a "secular" democracy, which would, of course, get him in hot water with the Righties here at home.

[Jesse Walker]

Like I said, Snake, I'm not going to expend any more effort trying to break through your bubble. If you want to believe I think I'm part of a self-important "enlightened caste," be my guest. Just remember that it's a "caste" that consists of the great majority of people -- of everyone who responds to the actual words that they read, rather than to wildly inaccurate assessments of the motives behind those words.

By the way, I'm still waiting for my money.

[Curious]

Hey, that thread is way funnier than this one, can we sort of revive that one instead?

[Call me snake]

Fine, but ascribing motives is a guilty pleasure.

Well, a promise is a promise:

Do you have a paypal site set up?
A blog with a tip jar?
What about cigars?
Liquor? Are you an absinthe guy?
What about a donation to the pathologically self-important libertarians society of America, Tommy Flanagan, President?
How about a donation to Pete Anderson so he drops his suit against Dwight?
Feel free to hit me with any other suggestions.

[Jesse Walker]

Do you have to ask? Like all self-important libertarians, I expect my payment in gold bullion, mailed to a mysterious p.o. box in Colorado.

[rst]

In other news, HRC just collapsed before a scheduled talk. Not sure of much else yet.

Unfortunately for New York she got back up. But overall it's good that she's ok.