Deflatin' Cajun

On CNN, James Carville just practically conceded on John Kerry's behalf. My last-minute prediction that Kerry would pull it out is looking less and less well-advised.

He could still conceivably squeak through, I suppose, but I'm glad I didn't put any money on this.

Comments

[anon]

And so, in the end, we turn to Ohio.

Chris Suellentrop had a nice piece about Ohio politics (actually the Plain Dealer had a nice primer on Ohio politics, expanded upon by Suellentrop)
http://www.slate.com/id/2103984/

Based on the formula he provides early on, Kerry is on track, as can be seen from the County counts here:
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

Of course, as Suellentrop points out, Gore pulled this off in 200 and still lost the state.

Jesse, while you and I both shared (on Gene Healy's site) a dream of a popular/electoral vote reversal of 2000 this year, I assume neither of us imagined that it might come down to the Amish.

Alright, it probably won't. It'll probably come down to Cuyahoga county or some such. But damn, wouldn't it be cool? The freaking Amish? They don't even read blogs! It'll blow Jeff Jarvis' mind.

Anon

[Anon]

Oh good lord.

If Kerry pulls out NM (Currently ahead, according to SOS:http://65.160.159.96/County0.htm) and Bush wins Ohio, we will have a 269-269 tie.

And so the dream lives on.

Anon.

[Jesse Walker]

Kerry could win without Ohio, but (a) Iowa and New Mexico look like tough nuts to crack, (b) some of the other states aren't certain either, and (c) he'd still need that West Virginia elector to switch.

It's possible. But I understand why Carville's depressed.

[rst]

If the Ohio secretary of state says, "bipartisan" one more fuckin time...

holy shit he just said it again.

[Pavel]

It's possible. But I understand why Carville's depressed.

At this point, if I was a calculating democrat facing 4 years of Kerry gridlock or 4 years of Republicans doing whatever they want, I'd choose the later and plan for 2008.

[Jeff]

I lost $10 predicting a Kerry win with 300EVs in an office pool.

[Rick Laredo]

While I do not agree with James Carville's political beliefs I find him to be a honorable, honest man. Traits Kerry is totally deeficient in. That is why Carville can concied defeat and Kerry will drag it out as long as he can. Kerry is a real looser.