Early Exit Polls


Media malcontent Jack Shafer is doing his best to undermine big media by publishing early exit polls. Among the results, as of 12:30PM ET:

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Kerry 51
Bush 47

Kerry 58
Bush 40

Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Kerry 46
Bush 53

Whole bit here.

Meanwhile, Drudge is reporting early tips toward Kerry, too, though noting that a skew to women may be messing up with the results.

NEXT: Who Won the Election?

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  1. a skew to women may be messing up with the results.

    Nick, you seem to be self-editing as well as I usually do!

  2. I really wouldn’t trust exit polls before 5pm, especially when they’re this close. A lot of people are going to wait until after work. Since the lines are so long the didn’t have time in the morning.

  3. Yeah, I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that Kerry’s margin of victory in Minnesota will be somewhat smaller than 18 points.

  4. I’ve been watching Tradesports, and it’s made a spectacular jump towards Kerry in all the swing states, the election winner, and the popular vote. Now it has Kerry to win with over 300 EV. I guess the exit poll data is getting around.

  5. Joe-

    I agree that 18% is a bit absurd, but I predict that Kerry will win by a larger magin than predicted by the polls in those states where registered D’s outnumber registered R’s, perhaps due to record high turnout. As someone who is clearly partisan to the D’s, this should make you hopeful. This could be the case in MN, OR, PA, MI, NJ, HI.

  6. So which conservative is going to be the first, in the face of the election shares swinging wildly because of exit polling, to simultaneously argue that election polling is bogus, and that the almighty market is a better way to predict the outcome?

  7. Joe… that’s not hard… all I have to point out is that the polls were far more volatile than the market. From one day to the next, electoral-vote.com would predict Bush with over 300 then Kerry with over 300… back and forth. At least the market was more stable, and it’s always predicted a tight race… and it is correcting itself now:) Yeah, let’s see the polls correct themselves!

  8. Andy, do you have an account at Tradesports? I’ve been unable to access their public information for the last hour.

  9. SR, no, I don’t have an account. The site has been running poorly. It takes a long while for the info. to come up, but it ~usually~ comes eventually. I have a broadband, and maybe it won’t come up at all with a slower connection. Last time I checked though, Kerry was winning just about everything by just a bit larger of a margin than Bush had yesterday.

  10. Interestingly, the Iowa Electronic Markets have not [as of 2 min ago] swung as wildly as Tradesports has.

  11. Well, Tradesports looks like it’s down right now… it’s not even trying to load. So where’s the IEM at?

  12. IEM website for overall winner:

    It shows Kerry at .515 and Bush at .485

  13. a skew to women may be messing up with the results.

    Someone set us up the bomb!


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