Setting Myself Up for a Fall


Elsewhere, bloggers are publishing detailed predictions of who is going to carry which states. If this were an office pool, I'd follow suit; but since it's just a quick post on election eve, I'll stick to saying this:

It's going to be close, but I think Kerry is going to take it.

Which surprises me, since I've been predicting a Bush victory all year. But I've changed my mind. The Republicans just look more desperate to me. It's a dangerous assumption (see: Iraq), but I figure they know something I don't.

More predictions: Nader won't top 1%, and Badnarik will not get more than 300,000 votes. The Republicans will keep both the House and the Senate. And if Bush does win, it will not be because, as the cliche goes, more voters would like to have a beer with him. Who would want to have a beer with Bush? He doesn't drink. It would be awkward.