Kerry's Arab-American Slide

According to a tracking poll conducted in battleground states by the Arab-American Institute and Zogby International, George W. Bush has slightly improved his standing among Arab-Americans--hitherto thought to be safely in the Kerry camp. Worse, John Kerry's ratings have gone down in recent months.

Here are some highlights:

* The percentage of Arab-Americans who feel Bush deserves to be reelected has risen from 24.5 percent in July to 31.5 percent in September;

* When matched against John Kerry, Bush's Arab-American support has risen to 31.5 percent in September (from 24.5 in July) while Kerry's numbers have slipped back to just below his April 2004 level, to 20 percent;

* In a three way Bush-Kerry-Nader race, Kerry still holds the lead (by 47 percent to Bush's 31.9 percent to Nader's 9 percent), but that has narrowed since July, when Kerry had 51 percent to Bush's 24 percent to Nader's 13 percent).

The pollsters conclude, among other things: "Overall, the most significant factor accounting for the change in President Bush's numbers is the consolidation of his support among Arab Americans who identify themselves as Republicans."

But also: "It appears that the President's upswing and Senator Kerry's slight decline can be attributed to the same factors that moved the rest of the US electorate: Bush's post-convention bounce and Senator Kerry's stalled campaign."

Comments

[joe]

Looks like the same 5 point bounce that happened across the electorate in September. The size, timing, the reason given, everything.

[Jason Ligon]

I'm half German, but I have never self identified as anything other than American. I have always been interested in how those who self identify along two axes respond to politics that affect both dimensions.

To what extent does an Arab American view the interests of Arabs as competing with those of Americans, for example.

I've seen polls, but it is an interesting phenomenon to me if for no other reason than I don't experience anything like it. I could care less what Germany thinks.

[Jason Ligon]

Make that "... couln't care less ..."

I hate that.

[SR]

Who thought Arab-Americans were "safely in the Kerry camp"? The data Young cites here suggests that even at his best, Kerry wasn't pulling a majority. The bigger news from the poll is roughly 21% of Arab-Americans are planning on voting for a third-party candidate (9% Nader, 12% Other), which fits with the observation that Arab-Americans and, more generally, Muslims are realizing that both major parties have stabbed them in the back. (It could also be pointed out that in 2000 Bush got 45% of the Arab-American vote to 38% for Gore, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1217199/posts , meaning that even with this increase Bush is still nearly one-third down on his percentages.)

[nowtryfreedom]

How many states have a 3-way race with Bush Kerry & Nader--any? Isn't every one of those states at least a 4-way race with Badnarik in the running too?

[Meshuganer]

Don't forget that the vast amount of Arab Americans in this country are Christian in religion....especially the most Americanized of this group who have been here more than a generation (some three and four generations). These Christian Arabs have their own axe to grind against the Muslim dominated societies that their ancestors left..so it's not surprising that there would be substantial support of Bush among them.

[joe]

Given the fact that Bush's evangelical buddies are off in Iraq trying to convert the world's oldest Christian communities to Christianity, I don't think it's wise for you to assume that Shrub's declaration about Gawd are necessarily going to endear him to Arab American Christians.

[thoreau]

But joe, those Iraqi Christians aren't real Christians, just like you and I aren't either. (As I recall, you've said you're a Catholic.)

What will be really funny is to watch the various fundamentalist sects argue with each other instead of preaching to Chaldean Christians. Then somebody in the room will suggest that they unite against the real enemy. Wahabbi fanatics? Nope. The People's Front of Judea! 😉

[Tim Cavanaugh]

So neither one of you Joe Catholics is going to throw me a link on this topic?

[Ruthless]

Wait! Don't tell us Arab-Americans are going to be voting with their vulvas too!

[joe]

thoreau, other Catholics don't even consider me a Christian anymore. Whaddyagonnado?

Tim,

"I'm not worthy! I'm not worthy!" *grovels*

[Mo]

Let's not forget that the largest Arab-American population in the US is in Michigan, so this is an important micro-trend for a battleground state.

Jason,
I believe most Arab-Americans are closer to having left their countries of origin than most Eurpoean immigrants. I'm thinking that a 1st or second generation German immigrant (I guess I'm assuming you aren't one) would care more about German relations than a 5th generation German.

Personally, I couldn't care less about how happy Mubarak is with our government (in fact, anything that pisses off Mubarak, I usually will support). I know quite a few others like me in this regard. They did leave for a reason.

This A-A is voting for Badnarik.

[Shannon Love]

So I wonder what the breakdown is for just Iraqi-Americans?

[thoreau]

Sorry, Tim, forgot about your article.

[andy]

"I guess I'm assuming you aren't one"

Mo,

Assuming makes an ass out of you AND me 🙂

[andy]

or in this case jason...

[Gadfly]

The whole exercise of parsing the population into smaller and smaller parts sometimes just drives me nuts. Check out what fafblog has to say as Giblets analyzes the Pennsylvania population.

http://fafblog.blogspot.com/

"Georgia Mason is a retired Vietnam Veteran NASCAR driver an security mom who as a single parent must juggle raisin her family with her career as captain of a pirate ship. She has voted for Ronald Reagan an Bill Clinton an George Bush an a genetic chimera of Ross Perot an Ralph Nader. But although she calls herself a lifelong Republican she may vote for John Kerry this year! "I don't trust John Kerry on the war," she says. "But I'm worried about my job in this economy. How can I feed a family looting, raping, and pillaging if everyone I try to loot, rape, and pillage is unemployed?"

[Ruthless]

Pesky Fly,
I knew you were more than a nuisance, deep down.
Thanks to you, I've finally found the "interest group" I've been searchin for: Mah People!
Goodbye, Hit and Run! Ya'll wuz just a way station.

[joe]

Don't be a pussy, Ruthless. How are you going to learn anything if you only argue with people you agree with?

[Meshuganer]

Unfortunately I happen to receive in my JUNK MAIL
post office shit...not e-mail, a magazine called VOICE OF THE MARTYRS. They're a typical evangelical group who basically recognizes only other evangelicals as real Christians. They had an article about Iraq and were very patronizing to the Assyro/Chaldean Christians. They did a bit of a yadda yadda about Christianity being in Iraq since the 1st century etc. but then went on to tell how even Chaldeans found Jesus (became evangelical)--- I gwonder how much luck they're having converting Muslims---Chaldeans are easier targets? I guess I am one of those fallen away Catholic (I'm not even in the Recovering Catholic state) who still can have a funny bone tickled by the past....and other things can still touch a raw nerve.

[Meshuganer]

Unfortunately I happen to receive in my JUNK MAIL
post office shit...not e-mail, a magazine called VOICE OF THE MARTYRS. They're a typical evangelical group who basically recognizes only other evangelicals as real Christians. They had an article about Iraq and were very patronizing to the Assyro/Chaldean Christians. They did a bit of a yadda yadda about Christianity being in Iraq since the 1st century etc. but then went on to tell how even Chaldeans found Jesus (became evangelical)--- I wonder how much luck they're having converting Muslims---Chaldeans are easier targets? I guess I am one of those fallen away Catholic (I'm not even in the Recovering Catholic state) who still can have a funny bone tickled by the past....and other things can still touch a raw nerve.