Pollster John Zogby insists that the election is a lot closer than the 11-point Bush lead that two newsweeklies have reported. He has Bush "leading by 2 points in the simple head-to-head match up - 46% to 44%." (It's a three-point lead with Nader.) Yet he also believes that "Kerry is on the ropes." Why?
Zogby points out that "The President was behind 50% to 43% in my mid-August poll and he essentially turned the race around by jumping 3 points as Mr. Kerry lost 7 points. Impressive by any standards." He adds that "For the first time in my polling this year, Mr. Bush lined up his Republican ducks in a row by receiving 90% support of his own party, went ahead among Independents, and now leads by double-digits among key groups like investors. Also for the first time the President now leads among Catholics."
Bush's lurking problems include "a net negative job performance rating, a negative re-elect (i.e. more voters think it is time for someone new than feel he deserves re-election) and a net negative wrong direction for the country." The issues that work for Kerry, according to Zogby, are "the economy, health care, and the execution of the war in Iraq." Zogby thinks that Kerry "has a lot of work to do to refocus the campaign" on such issues.
Thanks to: The Command Post