Journalist Ann Louise Bardach, a shrewd observer of Cuban politics on and off the island, has this wishful bit of how-to-win-Florida advice for John Kerry:
The unvarnished truth is that there's no space on the right for John Kerry. Hard-line exiles?for whom Cuba is the only issue?are dedicated Republicans. However, there is an opening on the left. A viable position for Kerry would be to declare himself fiercely anti-Castro and then point out that Bush has no Cuba policy other than the embargo?a 45-year failure that has yet to make any progress toward its stated goals: free elections in Cuba and an end to Castro's reign. Kerry should then champion what the majority of exiles want?unlimited remittances and unrestricted travel?and argue that increased contact with Cuba will lay the groundwork for civil society in the post-Castro years.
Kerry's track record of pandering and flip-flopping on the issue (as documented by Bardach) give no reason to believe he'd do any of this.