Knight-Ridder, via the San Jose Mercury News, is reporting that top military brass expected insurgency to rise after Saddam's capture:
A top-secret report prepared for the American military command in Iraq just before Saddam Hussein was caught predicted that guerrilla attacks would increase after his arrest, as more anti-Saddam Iraqis joined the resistance.
The report argued that seizing Saddam could provoke more attacks by making the insurgency more acceptable to Sunni Muslims who weren't members of Saddam's Baath Party elite, according to senior administration officials who've seen it. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the report is classified.
The theory is that the Sunnis think it's better to force Americans out now, while there's still a chance of restoring Sunni political power. The Sunnis, including Saddam, have dominated Iraq's political system for most of the last century. They don't want to wait for elections, caucuses, a constitution that would hand power to the majority Shiites or the creation of an anti-Sunni coalition of Shiites and Kurds.
The article notes that the report's assessment differs "from the official military view": "I don't think [Saddam's capture is] going to be good for recruiting," Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.