Galluping Toward Democracy

Randy Barnett at Volokh is trumpeting a new AEI/Zoby poll with what appears to be good news about Iraqi public opinion. Happy as I am to see any positive signs coming out of Iraq, a couple of don't-break-out-the-champagne-yet observations.

First, I recall Iraqi public opinion not so long ago showing 100 percent support for Saddam Hussein. Yes, yes, I know, our "not occupying, just visiting" forces would never dream of putting any pressure on people with the wrong opinions. But even if they wouldn't… do the people being polled fully appreciate that after a few decades of repression? Telling the man with the clipboard what you think he wants to hear is probably a habit that dies hard.

Second, even if we think the info's accurate, the persistent problem in this part of the world is precisely that majority opinion tends not to be decisive. That 100 percent figure from the Bad Old Days notwithstanding, I rather doubt Saddam was a big hit with the Shi'a majority… with that much oil, at the end of the day, you don't have to be. So I'm actually less interested in the good majority answers than I am in the level of fanaticism (and weapons ownership) of the minority that gave the bad answers.

Comments

[Julian Sanchez]

Umm, yeah, you're right; I would find that result much more credible. I'll repeat the argument for those whose wheels turn a bit more slowly than average:
(1) Result that confirms what an occupying force wants to hear: worth taking with a grain of salt.
(2) Result that runs counter to what the occupying force wants to here: less likely to be the result of percieved pressure from / fear of annoying that force.

[Josh]

If anything, Iraqis know they have more to fear from anti-American forces in the country, who've murdered "collaborators." If Iraqis are living in fear of voicing their opinion, Julian, don't you think they're a little more worried about the Ba'athist remnants than the Marines?

"Umm, yeah, you're right; I would find that result much more credible."

I.e., "I believe what I want to believe, everything else is considered suspect." More of the great insight we've been seeing in Reason recently.

[objective dissent]

Number one, the "occupying force" didn't take the poll. An uneducated and uninformed reader would picture the 1st Marines with rifles slung and clip boards in hand, asking these questions.

Since Julian's wheels are definitely turning slower than average, the previous post didn't object to his assertions. Only the point was made that Julian is splitting hairs here in an attempt to put a negative spin on otherwise good news.

No one capable of any rational thought thinks that the Iraqi population is projecting their fear of Saddam to the US forces.

[objective dissent]

Perhaps NRO is more correct than even I had imagined in their assertion that Reason is being driven into the ground.

From the rational, speedy wheels of Julian, the more positive the poll results, the more likely that the Iraqis are being pressured to give the right answers.

It is impossible that the Iraqis' opinions are accurately reflected by the poll because in Julian's world, it is a foregone conclusion that America is the hated interloper and the Iraqis feel as he does.

[Anonymous]

In a situation where everybody seems to be lying to someone about something, is this reall a discussion worth having?

[Zathras]

Julian's points are well taken; polls like this need to be taken with a grain of salt. Only a grain, though.

It isn't that hard to imagine that large numbers of Iraqis fear what would happen if the Americans left right now. That fear is probably the biggest thing we have going for us; I've thought for a while that we (that is, the CPA) ought to be playing on it more vigorously than we have. If that sounds perverse, ask yourself how many of the nations that have in the recent past moved from tyranny to something like democracy did so without a threat from something they feared more than they disliked change being imposed on them. None of them among the countries America was directly involved with did.

At the end of the day we don't need these people to love us. Based just on what I read in the press I would have expected worse results from a poll like this.

[PapayaSF]

I don't think Julian is giving the Iraqis enough credit here. Under Saddam, they knew that giving the wrong answer could bring severe punishment. How many think that about the Americans? Very few, I'd bet. Julian might have a point if this were, say, North Korea after liberation, where the populace had been thoroughly indoctrinated and cut off from nearly all outside contact. They might think: "Tell the new master what he wants to hear." But I think most Iraqis are more worldly than that.

[Anonymous]

I'd be more interested in the opinions of people who have better thing to do than talk to pollsters.

[Anonymous]

Did you read the loaded questions???

"Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?"

Scientific poll my ass.

[Gene Berkman]

I think even those of us who opposed the war - as I did - should hope for the best, and should be glad when good news occurs.
The poll indicates that Iraq is a thoroughly secular society. Yet many supported the war as an attack on "radical Islam."
On a related issue,the poll points out that 57% of Iraqis have an unfavorable view of Osama Bin Laden, and the proportion is even more lopsided in Shi'ite areas. This does not prove that Saddam & Bin Laden were not allies, but since no proof has been given that they were, it is more information...
Outside of WWP, Americans who opposed the war also opposed the Hussein regime. But war should be a last resort, and war is rarely the best method of liberating a country.

[Anonymous]

"The poll indicates that Iraq is a thoroughly secular society."

Not to attack Gene, but we knew this without this stupid poll.

[Anonymous]

"the persistent problem in this part of the world is precisely that majority opinion tends not to be decisive."

Perhaps this part of the world is mistrusting of the "tyranny of the majority".

[objective dissent]

Yadayadayada,

If the polls had shown a slight majority of the people expressing an opinion negative towards the Americans Julian would be the first to trumpet the validity and usefulness of such polls.