Your Weekend Recall Update

Republican loser Bill Simon has dropped out, while a new L.A. Times poll shows Gray Davis making a surprising comeback.

Comments

[Yes, And...]

Hint: The rest of us don't care. We'll be briefly and mildly interested on election day, to see if a big famous actor gets elected governor of another state. But right now the daily barrage of recall stories and minutiae is getting really old...

[mph]

Hint: Some of the rest of us do care. We may only be briefly and mildly interested each day, but right now, the daily item or two is nothing we can't skip over if we aren't feeling up to reading about the whole thing...

[Andy]

I for one, am interested in all this. One aspect I'm especially interested in at the moment is to see how well that betting site tradesports.com does in predicting the outcome of the recall. I expected a surge for the "recall fails" bet following the recent LA Times poll showing Davis's position improving... but nothing significant has changed there. Currently, the bet is hovering around 17%* that the recall will fail (this estimates a low probability that Davis will stay in office). Arnold to win is around 58%... about double the odds of 2nd-place Bustamante.

My gut tells me that Davis is in a much better position than Tradesports thinks... but my gut has no guts right now.

Andy

*I'm not sure how to express this "17%"... it's like a commidities market... you buy and sell contracts and at the end all the bets expire at either 0 or 100, depending on whether they lose or win.

[Robert Garcia Tagorda]

Matt: I think that we should consider that nowhere in the LA Times's poll does it mention the replacement candidates.

[Anonymous]

Hey, it's pushed Lacy and Coby off the TV, and for that we can be thankful.

[Zathras]

I am interested, but I still don't see how this process does not end with a Democrat in the Governor's mansion. If all Republicans but Schwarzenegger drop out, maybe he has a chance, but I have a hard time seeing how he increases his appeal to CA voters beyond what it is now -- and what it is now isn't enough to elect him.

I suppose in the circus atmosphere surrounding this recall procedure it is a minor detail that none of the major candidates running are any more honest about the steps needed to deal with California's budget crisis than Gray Davis has been.

[Dave Weigel]

But Simon, bless 'im, will appear on the Oct. 7 ballot right under Arnold. And if you remember the 2002 South Dakota Senate race, when a libertarian appeared on the ballot after quitting, Simon could still score more than 10,000 votes from some GOP zealots.

I sympthized with some of his politics, but man, Simon is/was a terrible, terrible candidate. He should have backed Tom McClintock from the word "go."

[Ron Hardin]

Congratulations to Bill Simon on some good sense. It saves everybody a lot of cringing.

[Holly Weird]

I am taking this opportunity to announce my withdrawl from the California recall race, watching it that is. I am confused, the democratic candidate says vote no on the recall and yes on him, and the republican candidate is more of a democrat than the democrat, and like some of his movies, he can't even act like a republican!

[Douglas Fletcher]

I wouldn't believe the LA times if a paperboy hit me over the head with the Sunday edition.

[Joe Sixpack]

I've had enough! It's time for a change! Elect Democrats and government gets bugger. Elect Republicans and government gets bigger.

[Joe]

er, "bigger." (Typo.) WE are the one's who get buggered.

[Thomas Jennifer]

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DATE: 01/26/2004 08:24:41
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