Dollar Days
Iraq's system of currency will remain a mishmash of Kuwaiti and Jordanian dinars, Syrian pounds, Euros, Saddam-era dinars and best of all, Yankee Greenbacks, possibly for a year or so. That's how long it could take to get a reliable new Iraqi currency up and running.
In the meantime, Uncle Sugar will make a cash infusion by peeling off a shiny $20 bill for every government employee. (I'd like to be the guy in charge of throwing out the double sawbuck, with a cheery "Fight over this, yuh misshapen things!") The payoff is no mean feat, since an estimated 1.5 to 2.5 million people—most of the country's work force, in fact—worked for the government. Anonymous officials in charge of masterminding Iraq's economy say they want to avoid dollarizing the economy, but paradoxically claim inflation won't be a problem "if the money in your pocket is (already) primarily dollars."
This is probably the best approach, since I'm not sure why the US should be taking any role in establishing a new Iraqi currency—precisely the kind of job that should be handled by those "Iraqi people" I keep hearing about. Better we should put our energies into getting whatever forms of currency people will deal with circulating as widely and quickly as possible. Currency stability is an overrated goal in the Middle East anyway. In Lebanon you can pass any kind of money the other guy will accept (generally dollars or lira, though Francs, UK£, Euros and such seem to be grudgingly accepted by some), and as a result people will keep doing business while Godzilla is attacking Beirut. In Syria you have to do everything in pounds, and it's a struggle just to buy a cup of coffee. Jordan also insists all business be transacted in dinars, but there's nothing you'd want to buy. Self-regulation already seems to be working in Iraq: The Kurds do business with stable pre-Saddam dinars.
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http://online.wsj.com/article_email/0,,SB105046198854350900,00.html
http://economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1715028
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.01/egold.html
http://www.mises.org/money/3s5.asp
I wonder in what currency they pay their debt? It's estimated to be anywhere from 100 to 300 billion something or other on an economy of 10 billion something or other.
According to this story:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A12711-2003Mar11¬Found=true
Iraq had, under sanctions, 2 million barrels a day oil output (In comparison, Saudi Arabia was pumping 9 million per day). That's 18 Billion per year at $25 per barrel.
Actually, their external debt is only $62 billion, and thier GDP is $61 billion (reference CIA worldbook). Lefty - you might consider doing a little research once in a while.
Beyond that, their debt will almost certainly be forgiven - both to make our job of rebuilding easier and to discourage lenders from financing tyranny.
It's worth considering putting their economy on the dollar for good and all...in fact I caught a reference on FOX that seemed to say it was so. The occupation authority (by whatever euphemism they care to call it) could settle all transactions in dollars.
BTW a USAid guy was asked how bad things in Baghdad are, and so, more or less, that you could have dropped him anywhere in sub-saharan Africa, where there HAD'NT been a recent war, and he would have had more to do.
"It seems that after the US prosecutes a nearly unilateral war to take over a devastated, indebted country, it suddenly sees the logic of eliminating illegitimate debts," said Njoki Njoroge Njehu, director of the 50 Years Is Enough Network."
More here. It goes into better depth on the Iraq debt issue. http://www.jubilee2000uk.org/worldnews/asia/iraq150403.htm
PLC - here's a link. There's plenty more saying the same thing. 15 bil in oil revenue, 300 in debt. A lot of the debt is war reparations from GWI.
Never trust the CIA.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101030421-443187,00.html
except that the dinar (gold) is decreed by islam and is the unit of account in the pan-islam halawa payment system. also recall that interest (usury) is anathema to muslims.
Lefty:
What the Time article actually states is that Iraqi "debts, money owed on signed contracts and reparations from the first Gulf War... (total) $200 billion to $300 billion." The debt portion of this total is the $60 billion I referred to above. The reparations from the first Gulf War will never be paid and are meaningless. The "money owed on signed contracts" isn't important either, because those contracts were signed with a defunct regime, and the contracts will not be fulfilled (the work contracted will not be performed, and as such, will not need to be paid for).
Also, your first comment said Iraq had an economy of $10 billion, now you are saying that they have oil revenues of $15 billion. And you say we shouldn't trust the CIA?
D-uh! The currency to repay the debt will be oil and scientists!
"also recall that interest (usury) is anathema to muslims"
Yeah, and all muslims live in utopia. They just hate interest when it's charged by jews; muslim-to-muslim interst is a-ok.
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