New Poll, No Paul
Radley Balko | June 12, 2007, 10:56am
I was surprised that Ron Paul didn't even pull 1 percent in the latest L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of prosepctive GOP primary voters. Then I saw the question asked of them:
Q: If the Republican primary or caucus for president were being held in your state today and the candidates were Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.), Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.), Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.), Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.), former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson (Wis.) and actor and former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.), for whom would you vote?
JasonL | June 12, 2007, 1:51pm | #
Regarding why I bothered to comment on it the futility of pushing a Paul candidacy.
Everyone is free to waste their time as they see fit, of course, but chasing unicorns has an opportunity cost. We are much better at influencing policy than we are at electoral politics precisely because we have good but strongly minority ideas.
All of a sudden libertarians fall in love with polling and shun revealed preference when a straw poll or an internet survey tells them a guy like Paul has any non zero chance of being elected. I'm telling you he has a ZERO chance if he runs remotely libertarian. At least a lottery ticket gives you one in ten million or something.
What we should know, after all this time, is that libertarianism isn't a prevalent way of thinking and it puts a majority of people off. We should know that by loss after loss after loss and decades of insignificance. Harry Browne, RIP, was a clown not a candidate. "Tear down the IRS!" is an idiotic way to pretend you are serious about attaining office.
What we know about Paul, after all this time, is that he is defined by his anomaly status. By definition, that means he can't be elected by a broad sampling of Americans.
The one area where we have not been a joke is policy. We have influenced every positive move in the last 30 years through policy work. Every election cycle, people just forget that. The kool aid comes out and we start hearing about which great guy is going to lead the LP and how you CAN be elected to the nation's highest office by being Dr. No.
You know, because people really don't want pork. They really don't want an IRS. They really don't want drug enforcement. They really don't want medicare or social security.
It is a very awkward time for libertarians that should be spent trying to influence platforms by grabbing bloc status on a realistic candidate.
Fluffy | June 12, 2007, 4:55pm | #
There's no evidence the Democrats will actually institute single payer health care.
Let's look at some other issues, shall we?
8 years of Clinton - no expansion of Medicare.
5 minutes of Bush - Medicare prescription drug benefit.
8 years of Clinton - no new campaign finance reform
5 minutes of Bush - McCain-Feingold becomes law.
8 years of Clinton - no new Cabinet level departments.
5 minutes of Bush - Department of Homeland Security.
8 years of Clinton - no major new federal education initiatives.
5 minutes of Bush - No Child Left Behind.
8 years of Clinton - no new major protected classes of people
5 minutes of the LAST Bush - the Americans with Disabilities Act.
Clinton changed the top marginal tax rate by a tiny fraction. Oh noes.
Bush added trillions to the national debt, increasing the long term tax liabilities of everyone.
What benefit, exactly, did we gain from a Republican being in office? It looks like it was pretty shitty to me.