If California's Prop. 30 Passes But Doesn't Fix Budget, 74 Percent Say Spending Cuts Must Be Next

The October Reason-Rupe poll suggests California voters are open to one more round of tax increases, but after that, three-fourths want the legislature to actually get serious about cutting state spending.

California’s Proposition 30 increases personal income taxes on upper income families for seven years and increases the sales tax by a quarter percent on all Californians for four years. Lawmakers hope this will raise $6 billion in annual tax revenue and plan to allocate much of it to education, including higher education in the state. The ballot initiative is still too close to call, 50 percent plan to vote yes and 46 percent plan to vote no, within the poll’s +/- 4.5 percent margin of error.

The poll probed Californians further on Prop 30, asking that if the tax increases passed but did not sufficiently close California’s budget deficit what would they like the legislature to do next. At this point, 74 percent of Californians want the legislature to cut spending levels to balance the budget, 15 percent want it to levy further tax increases and 4 percent want the state to borrow money.

Across demographic and political groups, Californians say they want the legislature to focus solely on spending cuts if Prop 30 tax increases are insufficient to balance the budget. Self-identified liberals were the only group with a significant number calling for further tax increases: if Prop 30 failed to close the budget deficit 42 percent of liberals favor raising more taxes, and 48 percent want the state to cut spending.

California telephone poll conducted October 11th-15th on both landline and cell phones, 696 adults, margin of error +/- 3.8%. The sample also includes 508 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. Full poll results found here.

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  • SugarFree||

    74% of Californians will settle for just a pony if they can't have a unicorn.

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    Specified spending cuts, however, they're against.

  • John Thacker||

    Indeed.

  • Whiterun Guard||

    Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

  • The Late P Brooks||

    Hold your breath until you turn blue pass out and fall off your high chair and split your skull open and DIE, California.

  • Whiterun Guard||

    But then where will we get our Avocados from?

  • OldMexican||

    Avocados from Mexico!

    Tra-la-la!

  • Whiterun Guard||

    At this point, 74 percent of Californians want the legislature to cut spending levels to balance the budget, 15 percent want it to levy further tax increases and 4 percent want the state to borrow money.

    74% - momentarily rational humans
    15% - government employees
    4% - ???

  • Zombie Jimbo||

    4% are current and former legislators and members of unelected government commissions.

  • Zombie Jimbo||

    They are the among the only ones who'll stay on the line for a poll anymore, so they are over represented.

  • Bee Tagger||

    If California's Prop. 30 Passes But Doesn't Fix Budget, 74 Percent Say Spending Cuts Must Be Next

    I'm hoping 26% said "if? don't you mean when?"

  • R C Dean||

    Hilarious. Spending cuts won't come from the current political class. So, they won't come until those 74% of Californians clean house, down to the bare drywall, in their capital.

    Or until an auction of Calfornia bonds fails, and there literally is no money in the account to pay bills.

  • Drake||

    Obviously CA isn't going to be fixed by the voters. Reality will eventually provide the correction.

  • Ken Shultz||

    Starving the beast. It's the only thing that works.

    We should be slashing taxes right now. That's how government gets smaller.

    If they won't slash the budget until they have no other choice, then give them no other choice.

    Do not let them raise taxes. Slashing taxes would be even better.

    Listening to the governor threaten to slash the budget, I feel like Br'er Rabbit. Please don't throw me in that briar patch!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4D470YSl2Y

  • Drake||

    I will bet CA revenue drops in the next full fiscal year if this passes. Productive people will slash their taxes by leaving CA.

  • OldMexican||

    If California's Prop. 30 Passes But Doesn't Fix Budget, 74 Percent Say Spending Cuts Must Be Next

    These people are pissing against the wind! Taxes are the only way to go because people will always pay what the government says and, besides, spending is a given, not really under the control of government!

    Tony(*) told me so, and he couldn't be wrong... could he?



    (*)Socialism incarnate.

  • 16th amendment||

    Prop 30 won't fix the budget. Here's what will happen if prop 30 passes.

    The California CBO will estimate that the tax will raise say $15B a year based on current behavior. This means if people buy $200B of taxable goods a year which would raise $12B if the sales tax were 6%, then after raising the tax rate by 0.5% we would raise an additional $1B. Similarly for income taxes. They say that tax returns with an AGI of $1M or provide say $20B in taxes. If they raise the top tax from 10.3% to 13.3%, that would give us say $25B in taxes. And so on. These are just made up numbers as I'm too lazy to look up the proper numbers, but the idea is that the budget office calculates how much money would be raised.

    Then the unions would raise spending $15B. They would demand higher salaries, higher benefits. Think about it: they were building a budget around the estimate the FB stock would be $42 by now, and CA would get an additional $2B in revenue. Or maybe the unions will raise spending $14B and say $1B is to pay down the debt.

    Then reality would kick in. People would buy less stuff, more stuff at garage sales, someone would claim prescription marijuana should be free from sales tax (if it isn't already and fight it in court and perhaps win), people would move out of state, people will not realize their capital gains. The actual money raised would be closer to $10B.

    And voila, the budget deficit has gotten worse as we're collecting an extra $10B and spending $14B.

  • 16th amendment||

    Then here's what will happen when prop 30 fails to fix the budget. People will complain. And when next election rolls around they will vote for democrats all over again, pass every school bond measure.

GET REASON MAGAZINE

Get Reason's print or digital edition before it’s posted online

  • Progressive Puritans: From e-cigs to sex classifieds, the once transgressive left wants to criminalize fun.
  • Port Authoritarians: Chris Christie’s Bridgegate scandal
  • The Menace of Secret Government: Obama’s proposed intelligence reforms don’t safeguard civil liberties

SUBSCRIBE

advertisement