Relax, It's Just Stress

Tim Cavanaugh | June 5, 2009

You'd think a government with so much practice in keeping the populace alarmed by imaginary hobgoblins would have more of a talent for pessimism. Yet unemployment figures keep showing how this spring's "Stress Test" suffered from a 9/11-worthy failure of imagination. This isn't really news: At the time the stress test results were revealed the unemployment rate was already higher than what the Fed and the Treasury were projecting as the more-adverse possible outcome. What's striking is how the bad news continues to outpace the government's softball projections. The indefatigable Calculated Risk blog has the comparison and future projections in one of its handy charts:

Read the full story here. Since I presume the Kobayashi Maru storyline drags its slow length through the new Star Trek 11, I'd like to note that changing the conditions of the simulation is usually done by the people giving the test, not the people taking it.

Comments

Alan Vanneman|6.5.09 @ 12:07PM|#

Well, if I could read this chart, I'd probably be stressed.

|6.5.09 @ 12:10PM|#

One can only imagine the hyperventalating that would be going on in the media right now over these numbers if McCain had won the election. It would be "my God its a depression" all day all the time. Since The Obama won, it is somehow not as big of a deal.

|6.5.09 @ 12:12PM|#

No, since Obama won, it's "boy, good thing we had that stimulus!" Even though the stimulus was poorly designed so that most of the spending hasn't gone out yet. In fact, one could make a case that with the pace of spending so slow, that some businesses are waiting on investment until they see what the government is doing, so the stimulus could even be anti-stimulative.

Tim Cavanaugh|6.5.09 @ 12:15PM|#

Slightly larger display, Vanneman. Best we can do with the column length. Click the image if you still can't read it.

|6.5.09 @ 12:21PM|#

Tim has never faced the no-win scenario. And that's the way he likes it.

|6.5.09 @ 12:43PM|#

Was I the only one who thought that Kirk's reprogramming of Kobayashi Maru was doucheier than expected? I figure he'd have lowered the enemy weapons output to like 20% of the original or something and then barely escaped with his hide intact so that they had to do some actual, you know, checking to see whether he had altered the program. Instead, he basically gave the entire Academy the finger. Seems less likely that they would be "impressed by his initiative" in that manner.

|6.5.09 @ 12:49PM|#

Instead, he basically gave the entire Academy the finger.

That was kind of the point. Though, in Wrath of Khan, it seemed implied that he did as you stated--made it winnable, but without the obviousness. However, this is the new, rebooted Star Trek, and this is the way Kirk is now. Go listen to the Beastie Boys and learn to deal with it.

"I'm gonna set it straight this Watergate"

|6.5.09 @ 12:58PM|#

I thought so too, LD, until I realized they were emphasizing his arrogance. By portraying it as they did, the acknowledged that he blatantly sabotaged the test to show that there is no such thing as a no-win scenario. Part of that test is that everyone knew it was just a test, so for Spock to expect that it would guage fear emphasized his trouble measuring fear in the first place, you know, because of being half-Vulcan. Someone has considerably less fear when they know there isn't a real life and death situation on their hands, but a simulation instead. (Captain Sully Sullenberger looks even better when you think of it this way.)

And besides, Shatner always had a smirk on his face no matter how dire the situation, so this blatant finger to the academy shows how arrogant the Kirk character really is. Helps Pine's portrayal in my opinion, considering the size of the shoes he's filling. I think he pulled it off. I mean you have to be cocky personified to do what Kirk did in that movie.

|6.5.09 @ 1:03PM|#

"By portraying it as they did, the acknowledged that he blatantly sabotaged the test to show that there is no such thing as a no-win scenario."

I'm told the test was racist. ;)

|6.5.09 @ 1:08PM|#

Trying to make sense of any JJ Abrams creation can only end in tears. Lost, Fringe, the new Star Trek -- it's the same gig.

It's not just a popcorn movie. It's a movie that you need to force feed popcorn to keep it from wasting away under the weight of its own stupidity. Of course I don't share popcorn, so I suppose it's all my fault.

|6.5.09 @ 1:16PM|#

I loved it. I like popcorn.

DADIODADDY|6.5.09 @ 1:17PM|#

I seem to remember some kerfaful or other about how many jobs the Obamam administration would save or create. Can anyone remember what the number(s) was and when we start counting?

I am so into myself!|6.5.09 @ 1:43PM|#

"I seem to remember some kerfaful or other about how many jobs the Obamam administration would save or create. Can anyone remember what the number(s) was and when we start counting?"

3 million.

January 20, 2009.

|6.5.09 @ 2:16PM|#

I think a very Obama-friendly baseline for evaluating the number of jobs saved or created is the stress test baseline.

I don't have the maths (or, at least, the energy) to figure out just how many more jobs have been lost than the stress test baseline predicted, but its pretty clear that he's hundreds of thousands of jobs behind already.

The Angry Optimist|6.5.09 @ 2:18PM|#

THE NEW STAR TREK BLEW.

I mean, I'm glad I wasn't the only one who was pissed about the depiction of the Kobayashi Maru. Does anyone believe that Kirk would have acquired the reputation he did if he had acted like the raging douchebag depicted in the new movie?

Blah. Yo, fuck JJ Abrams.

JB|6.5.09 @ 2:42PM|#

Tax receipts are down substantially as well. Why should people bother working when government is going to take most of it anyways?

Obama's record deficits are going to lead to dramatic tax hikes in a few short years.

NeonCat|6.5.09 @ 2:46PM|#

I have not seen the JJ Abrams fanfic movie; in one of the ST books, IIRC, Kirk reprogrammed the K Maru test so that when the Klingons appeared, he hailed them, told them who he was and they replied, "THE James T. Kirk?" in an awed voice and surrendered.

|6.5.09 @ 3:01PM|#

Oh shit!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

|6.5.09 @ 3:17PM|#

Obama's record deficits are going to lead to dramatic tax hikes in a few short years.

Well, probably that, too, but I am more and more convinced that we are heading straight into hyperinflation and the utter destruction of the US Dollar, which will mean tax hikes are the least of our worries.

|6.5.09 @ 3:36PM|#

TAO,

Well, this wasn't the same Kirk who was in the original series. His daddy died right after he was born, which is a well-known cause of douchiness I guess.

I had too many issues with the new ST to list here, but first and foremost is that even in a completely different timeline, where neither Kirk, Scotty, nor Uhura were supposed to be on the Enterprise at all, he winds up in command of the same starship, with exactly the same bridge crew?

The Angry Optimist|6.5.09 @ 3:46PM|#

and he's made a Captain while in the Academy, no less. WTF? To put it in perspective, this would be like a West Point grad suddenly being in charge of a major (though not division-sized) zone in Iraq, or an Annapolis grad being given a battleship.

Just...no way.

|6.5.09 @ 3:57PM|#

Yeah, TAO, while enjoyed parts of the movie, I just couldn't get over someone who hasn't even graduated from a service academy being handed command of so much as a shuttle, much less a major capital ship.

DADIODADDY|6.5.09 @ 4:05PM|#

OK repeat after me...it's only a movie, it's only a movie...

Tim Cavanaugh|6.5.09 @ 6:22PM|#

So I was right: They do use the Kobayashi Maru in Trek 11

Kris|6.5.09 @ 9:54PM|#

The "stress" test was a complete load of shit from the get go.

|6.7.09 @ 4:53AM|#

Hey, TC, looks like we're the only two not to have seen the new Trek, and I bet I have a better excuse than you do. ;)

Tim Cavanaugh|6.8.09 @ 12:39PM|#

My three excuses are kids who don't like what they call "people movies," but my real reason is that I think deep down Star Trek wants to be series television, not big-screen cinema. Though I enjoyed some of the movies and have been appalled at some of the spinoff series, I always welcome Trek when it arrives in the amiable and disciplined environment of episodic TV. Paying $15, standing in line, putting up with laser pointers and the like for Star Trek has always seemed somehow pointless.