Some Swine Flu Happy Thoughts

Brian Doherty | April 28, 2009

David Dobbs at Slate thinks that the current swine flu could well be far less fatal than it might seem right now. His reasons:

Of the 110 million people in Mexico, 1,600 cases have been reported, with about 100 deaths—suggesting a mortality rate of 6 percent. This is almost certainly bad math, as the total case count almost certainly ignores thousands or tens of thousands of other cases that have taken milder courses like those in the United States. It's perfectly conceivable Mexico has actually had 10,000 or 100,000 cases—or even 1 million cases. If so, then the kill rate would be not 6 percent but 0.1 percent (given 10,000 cases) or 0.01 percent (given 100,000 cases). If it's 1 million cases (quite possible if this thing really spreads easily) then the mortality rate is just 1 in 10,000. Meanwhile, because the United States is on high alert—and can take special note of people with recent travel to Mexico—it is probably picking up a fairly high percentage of its cases, including milder instances that would have gone unnoticed in Mexico a few weeks ago.

Previous swine flu blogging from Jeff Winkler and Ron Bailey here and from me over at KCET.org's "City of Angles" blog.

Link via Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution.

Comments

|4.28.09 @ 6:41PM|#

If so, then the kill rate would be not 6 percent but 0.1 percent (given 10,000 cases) or 0.01 percent (given 100,000 cases).

Just to make the correction that johnshade already made over at MR, his percentages here should be 1 percent and 0.1 percent.

But his main point stands: Only counting people who showed up in the health records since the health system started being interested in and testing for this strain of flu necessarily overestimates the mortality -- perhaps by a lot.

HammeredHead|4.28.09 @ 6:47PM|#

Yawn. Another fake panic. Obusha seems to love these things. Just look at the premeditated airforce one panic from yesterday.

SIV|4.28.09 @ 6:51PM|#

The 1918 pandemic started in the Spring but didn't start really killing until later.

The pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920, spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 20 to 100 million people were killed worldwide

Top of the first......

Mark Lambert|4.28.09 @ 7:03PM|#

LAMBERT'S LAW OF DISASTERS: Disasters happen, but they are NEVER what the experts predict.
I got so tired of hearing idiots saying that it wasn't IF the Bird Flu was going to be a pandemic, it was WHEN. I just laughed. Now it's this swine/bird/human flu, which is not "the" Avian Flu that everyone was predicting would shut down human society well before now.

Shannon Love|4.28.09 @ 7:28PM|#

The problem with mortality rates and the flu is that the infection rates for flu are enormous. IIRC, the standard infection rate for flu is 50-70% of the general population every season. With that many people infected, even a flu that just doubles or triples the number of people killed over regular flues racks up hundreds of thousands of victims.

Variations in virulency that wouldn't even be noticed in other diseases can be very significant with flu because flu infects so many people. This is why public health professionals are always so twitchy about the flu.

Orange Line Special|4.28.09 @ 8:00PM|#

It's also "perfectly conceivable" that a) Mexico isn't telling the truth about the numbers, and/or b) Mexico doesn't really know due to misdiagnosis. It's also possible that it might mutate into something far worse.

It's also interesting that down in ElPaso, people are just being waved through like a normal day. Apparently those inside the Beltway are already taking their meds or something.

Here's my swine flu coverage.

SLO|4.28.09 @ 8:00PM|#

So only cases are under reported? How does this preclude deaths from being under reported?

Paul|4.28.09 @ 8:05PM|#

Slow news day. NPR needs an excuse to talk about healthcare between Paul Krugman segments.

|4.28.09 @ 8:06PM|#

Hey LoneWhacko,

You know jack shit about epidemiology. Here's a hint: the virus is in the U.S. now, it doesn't matter how many more people bring it in. Go ahead, close the borders, it won't make a tiny difference. Also note, that MexicanImmigrants didn't bring the virus in, AmericanTourists did.
Let's lock everyone in their houses forever just in case a new disease crops up....

Dipshit.

Anonymous|4.28.09 @ 8:13PM|#

Also note, that MexicanImmigrants didn't bring the virus in, AmericanTourists did.

That's a very good point, in combination with the fact that nominally closed borders aren't going to stop a flood of people coming in because it won't and can't be enforced properly, but for some reason the news reports never seem to make it. Is it because they're waiting to see whether it can be used as an item to agitate panic, or do they really not think of it?

|4.28.09 @ 8:25PM|#

I will start to worry after the first 10,000 die. Then it will get interesting.

Brian Sorgatz|4.28.09 @ 8:29PM|#

It's a little-known fact, but in the 1970s, the porn industry played a major role in warning people about swine flu.

|4.28.09 @ 9:10PM|#

An extremely good book on this topic that still applies today is "The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History" by John M. Barry.

Read it and amaze your friends.

Troy has an interesting point, but it will probably be more than 10,000 because they will die in a far-distant part of the world that most Americans don't care about. I think it's more accurate to say that when it comes to Troy's town, then he will start worrying.

|4.28.09 @ 9:18PM|#

This flu is nothing but the media machine getting death-loving Sebelious into office without questions. And I hate to say it, but for Reason to ignore the most grotesque expression of presidential-governmental overlordishness in the flyover, 'yo fuck you.

Anonymous|4.28.09 @ 9:21PM|#

as an interesting point, but it will probably be more than 10,000 because they will die in a far-distant part of the world that most Americans don't care about. I think it's more accurate to say that when it comes to Troy's town, then he will start worrying.

I thought the point was that, given seasonal normal-flu infection rates, an increase in mortality of less than one percent would result in thousands of more deaths than usual. Then a figure like ten thousand deaths from flu is a point at which you can definitively say that the mortality rate is high enough to worry about.

Or you could just assume he doesn't care about brown children, like you evidently do.

|4.28.09 @ 9:25PM|#

This flu is nothing but the media machine getting death-loving Sebelious into office without questions.

Well at least we know Obama isn't a feckless cardboard cutout like you guys were so worried about. His machinations know no limit in complexity and intrigue!

Anonymous|4.28.09 @ 9:34PM|#

His machinations know no limit in complexity and intrigue!

You're so hierarchical. "If there's a plot to increase power, it has to come from the top!"

That would go a long way toward explaining the Left's methods of attack (that at room-temperature IQs.)

Atanarjuat|4.28.09 @ 9:40PM|#

So only cases are under reported? How does this preclude deaths from being under reported?

Because it's more likely that a mild case of the flu would be under-reported than something more severe and noteworty, such as a death.

|4.28.09 @ 9:52PM|#

Tony, Obama couldn't conjure up such a plot if his life depended on it. But his minions whispering to their press wives could.

|4.28.09 @ 9:57PM|#

Not that puppetmasters should be referred to as minions.

Orange Line Special|4.28.09 @ 10:00PM|#

I predict it would take Atanarjuat three weeks to figure out what it's not taking into account. Give it time.

As for stoneymonster's Pulitzer-grade comment, one wonders why countries that already have a few infections are locking down flights from N.A. If their experts thought there was no danger of things getting worse, wouldn't they just let everyone in?

I think we can see that stoneymonster isn't really thinking things through.

And, of course, it would be fairly easy to greatly SecureTheBorder if our politicians really wanted it. They'll do just about anything besides actually doing that because they're completely corrupt. And, Reason has no problem with that corruption. In fact, they cheer it on.

jtuf|4.28.09 @ 10:08PM|#

So, swine flue is worth keeping an eye on, but not worth a panic. I can't afford a trip to Mexico, but I might head to Queens, NY out of solidarity.

engineer|4.28.09 @ 10:12PM|#

"Tony, Obama couldn't conjure up such a plot if his life depended on it. But his minions whispering to their press wives could."

But, HOPE...CHANGE!

|4.28.09 @ 10:34PM|#

LAMBERT'S LAW OF DISASTERS: Disasters happen, but they are NEVER what the experts predict.

Isn't that because if we were able to predict the disaster, it would be preventable or ameliorated. Ignoring deadly diseases increases the odds that it will turn into an epidemic than taking proactive steps.

Heck there are plenty of times when there were signs and warnings, but no action. Examples:

Bin Laden determined to attack America.
There were plenty of documents calling into question the structural integrity of NOLA's levee.

Oh and the idiots that think this is political, were SARS and avian flu created by the Bush Administration to distract from his fuck ups?

I blame Quetzalcoatl.

Anonymous|4.28.09 @ 10:55PM|#

And, of course, it would be fairly easy to greatly SecureTheBorder if our politicians really wanted it. They'll do just about anything besides actually doing that because they're completely corrupt. And, Reason has no problem with that corruption. In fact, they cheer it on.

I think I understand the anti-immigration stance, and I'm not going to knock it, but antagonism like this doesn't help you. Which is to say, some people do seek selective enforcement (especially "left-libertarians") as a route to law nullification, even though that's disasterous with the judicial complexity and nuisance arrests. But I doubt most of the staff really seeks that. Rather, they often observe that a law is being poorly and selectively enforced and comment that it could be worse or that the law should better reflect constituents' sentiments.

I also want to note that libertarians, in the 19th Century "classical liberal" way, tend to reject the idea of the US as a nation with an ethnicity, even though it arguably was before 1965; but rather assert that the nation of laws and restricted government that the Constitution set up is adequate without as narrow a cultural context. That's the main beef you seem to have with libertarians. I suggest you focus on that distinction, and consider the circumstances that would lead to you being recognized as correct for emergent pragmatic reasons, and try to prevent us from being painted into a corner.

Orange Line Special|4.28.09 @ 11:32PM|#

The "nullification" campaign by certain libertarians isn't completely or mostly ideological: it's practical. As in, they're doing what helps their patrons make money.

The last paragraph of its comment is just made up.

Anonymous|4.29.09 @ 12:01AM|#

Wait... what patrons are we talking about? I'm not completely familiar with your work, so if you have a link to something that succinctly explains this accusation, I'll read it.

I'm not sure what you think is fabricated, but the principles I described fit. The definition of "nation" is the only significant difference I've found between traditional Constitutionalism and modern libertarianism (again: only if you leave out socialists masquerading as anarchists masquerading as libertarians, since anybody can call themselves anything they want).

|4.29.09 @ 12:25AM|#

I blame Quetzalcoatl.

Mo, you fucking retard, if you say its name, you summon it!!! God damn it!!! We're all fucked now!

(Q, with David Carradine? Come on, you've seen it, right? It's a fucking Larry Cohen movie, for fuck's sake.)

Paul|4.29.09 @ 1:27AM|#

This is why public health professionals are always so twitchy about the flu.

I wish they would remain twitchy about the flu and quit wringing hands over stuff like trans-fats. We're breeding an entire public health sector that's going to be well versed in smoking bans and curbing excess salt in our diet, but they'll have no clue what to do if something really bad happens, you know, like a good old-fashioned infectious disease.

Paul|4.29.09 @ 1:35AM|#

It's a little-known fact, but in the 1970s, the porn industry played a major role in warning people about swine flu.

Apparently, the porn industry were also partially responsible for spreading incidents of Guillain-Barré Syndrome via the panic.

But something about the first [Swine flu] PSA isn't so funny. Several cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, a disease causing paralysis and sometimes death, were apparently triggered by the vaccines that the Gerald Ford administration urged. When it comes to government policy, disease has something in common with terrorism. Overreaction to the threat could cause as much harm as the threat itself.

It's talked about here in regards to the Bird Flu: http://www.reason.com/blog/show/133160.html#comments

Naga Sadow|4.29.09 @ 1:43AM|#

Mo, you fool! You just went FULL RETARD! You don't feed Epi after midnight! Even now there are a bunch of pissed off gremlins running around Seattle launching grannies out their own windows! Stay away from chimney's while your at it.

"The worst thing that ever happened to me was on Christmas. Oh, God. It was so horrible. It was Christmas Eve. I was 9 years old. Me and Mom were decorating the tree, waiting for Dad to come home from work. A couple hours went by. Dad wasn't home. So Mom called the office. No answer. Christmas Day came and went, and still nothing. So the police began a search. Four or five days went by. Neither one of us could eat or sleep. Everything was falling apart. It was snowing outside. The house was freezing, so I went to try to light up the fire. That's when I noticed the smell. The firemen came and broke through the chimney top. And me and Mom were expecting them to pull out a dead cat or a bird. And instead they pulled out my father. He was dressed in a Santa Claus suit. He'd been climbing down the chimney... his arms loaded with presents. He was gonna surprise us. He slipped and broke his neck. He died instantly. And that's how I found out there was no Santa Claus."

|4.29.09 @ 6:15AM|#

Wouldn't it be wonderful if Lonewacko got the swine flu from a Mexican? He'd have all the satisfaction of being right and we'd have all the satisfaction of him being dead. Win-win.

Go get coughed on in a taquería, you racist piece of shit.

Suki|4.29.09 @ 6:17AM|#

Naga! Gremlins is one of my favorites, along with Ghost Busters!

Suki|4.29.09 @ 6:19AM|#

SF,

Good morning!

I was just trying to think flu symptoms into something sexy, but could not do it. Better ways to get all sweaty and dizzy.

But as a way of vanquishing those who bother you? Not bad.

Ravac|4.29.09 @ 9:05AM|#

Mo, you fucking retard, if you say its name, you summon it!!! God damn it!!! We're all fucked now!

I thought that was only Hastur... wait a sec, someone at the door... brb....

|4.29.09 @ 11:50AM|#

But as a way of vanquishing those who bother you? Not bad.

The perfect crime. Mother Nature... MURDERER!