All the President's Budget Assumptions
The 2011 budget contains more rosy scenarios than a romance novel.
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Google“Another manifestation of irresponsibility is the large budget deficits we are inheriting," wrote President Barack Obama in last year's budget message for fiscal year 2010 (which runs from October 2009 through September 2010). "These deficits, over time, will harm economic growth and impose burdens on our children and grandchildren," he continued. "For the past eight years, in a time of economic growth, the government spent recklessly on tax cuts for the few and hand-outs for the well off and well-connected, mismanaged billions of dollars in taxpayer money, and failed to honor the responsibilities we have to future generations."
Given his firm grasp of the consequences of the situation, you would have thought that the president would cut government spending and try to reduce the deficit. Sadly, the table below shows that you'd be wrong.
Indeed, contrary to the promises Obama made last year, the deficit grew by over 10 percent between FY2009 and FY2010. And spending, which was projected to go down in FY2010 to $3,552 billion from its $3,938 billion FY2009 level, will actually climb by an estimated 6 percent. In total dollars, the deficit for FY2010 is projected by the government to reach $1.56 trillion (last year, Obama projected it would be $1,171 billion).
2009 – 2010 Changes
And what did President Obama request in his recently released budget for FY2011? In his latest budget message he writes:
To help put our country on a fiscally sustainable path, we will freeze non-security discretionary
funding for 3 years. This freeze will require a level of discipline with Americans’ tax dollars and a number of hard choices and painful tradeoffs not seen in Washington for many years. But it is what needs to be done to restore fiscal responsibility as we begin to rebuild our economy.
Here's the rough plan in table form.
FY 2011 Budget Basics
Expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that means total government outlays will equal 25.1 percent of GDP, the second highest rate since 1945 (the highest was 25.4 percent for FY2010). Federal revenues will amount to 16.8 percent of GDP (up from its 14.8 percent level in FY2010). And the budget deficit will come to 8.3 percent of GDP, down from its FY2010 level. To put that number is perspective, remember that during the 1980s, a decade known for high deficits, the deficit average was 4 percent of GDP.
The only sector where spending might decrease is the area subject to the spending freeze (that area covers 13 percent of the budget, but the freeze won't take effect until next year). Since the budget came out, I have spent a long time trying to figure out how the freeze will work and exactly what it entails. Based on the budget data just released, however, there wasn’t enough information available to answer that question as of this writing.
So much for transparency. As economist and former Congressional Budget Office Acting Director Donald Marron put it on his blog after the budget numbers were released on Tuesday: "To fully understand the trajectory of non-security discretionary spending, you need to consider such obscure bits of budget arcana as the obligation limitations used for transportation funding (ob lims, to the initiated), the proposed conversion of Pell grants from discretionary to mandatory spending, the reassignment of bioshield from security to non-security spending, and the fact that Census spending is particularly high in fiscal 2010 because of the decennial census. I haven’t actually crunched the numbers, but that’s not my point tonight. Instead, my point is simply how hard it can sometimes be to match budget reality to budget communications."
It is also important to note the increase in defense spending (4.1 percent). Such an increase is not surprising, given that Obama is increasing troop levels in Afghanistan without withdrawing troops in Iraq any faster than President Bush would have done. But anyone who thought that Obama would be less of a hawk than his predecessor should have realized by now that this is a myth. In fact, this year the defense budget is the biggest in total real dollars in U.S. history.
So spending is going up. And yet the president predicts the FY2011 deficit will shrink from its FY2010 level of $1.56 trillion to $1.2 trillion. Better yet, the president projects that by 2014 the deficit will decrease by more than half to reach $706 billion.
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Caption Contest!
"...so really, anyone who disagrees with me is about this tall in my view."
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... well his lips are moving.
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yeah they were... LOL
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.. that wasn't a caption - didn't see the call for the caption contest. Simply to answer the obvious question. How can you tell when a politician is lying?
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This thread needs a reset.
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I was only fibbin' this much.
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And spending, which was projected to go down in FY2010 to $3,552 billion from its $3,938 billion FY2009 level, will actually climb by an estimated 6 percent
In fairness (ugh) to Obama, the reason why spending climbs rather than declines is that a ton of that stimulus spending that was approved for FY2009 (and made the preliminary estimates) didn't actually get spent, but the budget authority will be used in FY10 and FY11.
That's also why the "spending freeze" is near meaningless. But if you look at the numbers, you'll see that actual FY2009 spending was below the original estimates due to this "gov't takes too long to spend the stimulus so why not tax cuts" issue.
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"...but if you use billion-dollar bills, the stack is only this tall."
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Xeones wins
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+1
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+2
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hahah true Xeones does win great comment
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Indeed, contrary to the promises Obama made last year, the deficit grew by over 10 percent between FY2009 and FY2010.
Comparing what Obama does today with what he promised is an exercise in futility; everybody should have realized by know that the President was never serious about keeping his promises - how could he? Most were preposterous in themselves!
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Don Adams voice: "Missed it by that much."
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+1
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Assume a can opener.
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?
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It's an old joke:
An economist, an engineer, and a physicist are marooned on a deserted island. One day they find a can of food washed up on the beach and contrive to open it. The engineer said, "Let's hammer the can open between these rocks." The physicist said, "That's pretty crude. We can just use the force of gravity by dropping a rock on the can from that tall tree over there." The economist is somewhat disgusted at these deliberations, and says, "I've got a much more elegant solution. All we have to do is assume a can-opener."
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Your Lucas thread below is much better.
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Not according to the British Announcer, it isn't.
I intended to be vague and obscure, anyway.
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I got the joke, but I've usually heard it told with a mathematician, since I am one.
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I've heard variations. Economist is usually the can-opener assumer, though.
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Great share thanks for the nice post
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Expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that means total government outlays will equal 25.1 percent of GDP, the second highest rate since 1945 [when WWII ended] (the highest was 25.4 percent for FY2010).
Makes sense. After all, America is again waging a war . . .
. . . against itself.
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how hard it can sometimes be to match budget reality to budget communications
I suspect it was a lot easier when "reality" was closer to Constitutional specs.
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But that De Rugy is NOT an American!! How dare she comment on OUR budgets?
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Calling liberals retarded really is an insult to retarded people.
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Someone already used that this week.
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Thanks calling liberals is retareded
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Yeah seriously. One could go so far as to call her anti-American -- I mean, she's French for Bob's sake.
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A French female libertarian. I get the feeling that's a fairly exclusive group.
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A French female libertarian
Is it wrong that I'm turned on by reading that?
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It did make me want to find a photo.
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That's "French female libertarian" not "French female libertine"
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The budget will go down (slightly) from its current unimaginable levels as long as the economy grows at 5.1% this year and unemployment falls to 9%.
And to think Jonathan Chait and Andrew Sullivan are impressed by the fact that Obama's budget claims to reduce the deficit. I am sure the stagnant growth and continued rising uemployment this year that will reveal Obama's numbers and assumptions to be the fantasy that really are will all be Bush's fault, or in Sullivan's derranged mind have something to do with Trig's parenthood.
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Maybe Palin should demand Sullivan's gynecological records.
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You doubt His claims?
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There was an opinion piece on Bloomberg today that called bullshit to the entire budget by pointing out the fact that all of the guaranteed liabilities sitting in Fannie and Freddie are not included in the budget. That isn't billions … it's trillions.
The ultimate off balance sheet special purpose vehicle.
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Thanks for the nice share, great post
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"This is my budget on drugs . . ."
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"Given his firm grasp of the consequences of the situation, you would have thought that the president would cut government spending and try to reduce the deficit. Sadly, the table below shows that you'd be wrong."
The only thing you need to know about Obama is that every word that comes out of his mouth is a deliberate lie designed to fool people into thinking he is doing something other than what he is actually doing.
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So spending is going up. And yet the president predicts the FY2011 deficit will shrink from its FY2010 level of $1.56 trillion to $1.2 trillion. Better yet, the president projects that by 2014 the deficit will decrease by more than half to reach $706 billion.
That's the projected savings from cutting Rohm's dancing lessons . . .
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"Michelle's snatch is like this big after having the ki--...is this thing on?"
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That's what I was looking for. Thanks.
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My pleasure, dude.
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Same great comment exactly what I was looking for!
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Well, that's it, I'm officially traumatized now. Thanks a lot, internet.
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So if it only shoots this far does that mean she's not a squirter?
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Watch it, mate...
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He is saying anything thing he can to save his presidency. He is in decline and all this budget is smoke and mirrors. He says that all this money will be saved through this program and that program. He is a disaster. The Dems need to wake up as Mid terms are near and this could lead to their fall from grace. We will gladly pay you Tuesday for 14 trillion Today.
www.suckitupcrybaby.com -
"It was--no kidding--this long. I don't think I've ever spent that much time wiping off my ass."
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So, when does Obama open the 2nd envelope?
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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - A South African minibus taxi driver five times over the legal blood alcohol limit at breakfast time was arrested on Wednesday for transporting 49 children in a 16-seat vehicle.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6124IN20100203
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I posted this because it is the perfect metaphore for Obama's budget.
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Good to know that when the economy crashes only 49 children will be in danger.
I was worried there for a minute
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I posted this because it is the perfect metaphore for Obama's
budgetpresidency.FIFY
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"Okay, girls, Daddy will tell it one more time.
"The civilians: voters, taxpayers, people who actually work for a living and all those other losers, they're all down here. But Daddy and Mommy and you kids, and Uncle Barney- we're all 'way up here, because we're doing important stuff, and keeping all those unfortunate civilians from hurting themselves, because they just don't understand what's good for them. And when you go to Harvard Law School, you'll know more than anybody else, too. That's why you have to study hard and eat your arugula. Now brush your teeth, and go to bed."
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"How was I supposed to know Treacher wouldn't fit under the car? It's got like this much ground clearance; it's not like I was driving a lowrider."
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"Our recommendation is that the concrete in your backyard survival bunker be at least this thick, but don't cheap out. Because you're going to need it when I'm through with this country."
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Okay, I did this for the same picture in another thread. I'll stick with the same one:
Caption: "It's not impossible. I used to bullseye womp rats in my T-16 back home; they're not much bigger than two meters."
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Once again Pro Libertate attempts to be funny,
And again, fails. -
These aren't the droids you're looking for. Move along.
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Who made you arbiter of humor, British Announcer? Why, I doubt you're British or even an announcer. Ha!
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+2
And I am being very nice with my dwindling mod points.
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Though I will grant that Obama's hands are only six inches or so apart, not two meters. But, given his fondness for exaggeration and misstatement, I thought it was okay to ignore that discrepancy.
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No need to explain for us real Americans.
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+.5
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Smaller than two meters Pro. Smaller than two meters. If they womp rats were bigger, they would be easier to shoot and thus the example wouldn't be valie.
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Take that up with George Lucas.
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Crap! I was thinking "Tremors" not Lucas.
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He really says "bigger"? I thougth you just Sugerfreed the line. God, Lucas is a terrible writer.
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Yeah, he says "not much bigger."
You see, they're "not much bigger" than two meters. If they were "much bigger" they would be easier to shoot. But thy aren't.
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Is it wrong? The general dude says the target is two meters. Luke says, hey, I used to blow shit up that wasn't much bigger than that. Implying that he could probably hit two meters if he really tried. Especially because he's got the Force.
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This is not to defend Lucas' writing, which has always been. . .unsound.
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True. I guess the line isn't wrong. My eyes skipped over those little words "not much". I ahve a bad habit of reading into a sentence what I think is there instead of what is there.
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Which is a pretty decent analog to how this budget seems to be constructed.
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Thanks and no I dont think its wrong..
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Wow, this is way cool. I like this idea. I had never thought of it that way before.
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0
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This math works because of Prof. Hill's think method for math proficiency. Kids play with objects shaped like numbers and pretend they are doing math, as the kids get older the teachers pretend the kids are doing math. Everyone is happy, especially the kids parents who ride around with bumper stickers like; Proud Parent of Prof. Hill School Math Whiz!
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bestpriceforsales equus 3100 Very Good Value for the money. Finding it most useful.
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cheapordersale I like this idea. This math works.
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is good
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good
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good