Brian Doherty | June 3, 2009
California is famously considered a bellwether state for social and political trends, from the positive (hot rod and surf culture, the human potential movement, tax revolts, digital culture) to the regrettable (murderous cults, carbon reduction mandates). With that in mind, a simple—yet terribly difficult for our political class—contemplation of the state's current cash crisis is both instructive and scary for the future of our nation as a whole.
California now confronts a roughly $24 billion deficit. Recent attempts to get voters to approve various fiscal shenanigans and cost-shifts got smacked down at the polls. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is now making a big show of proposing heavy spending cuts that will, we are told by the state’s journalistic and political mavens, destroy the state, beggar its sick and young, and leave just enough cash to forcibly keep people out of various state parks, though not to “operate” them.
Of course, nowhere among the “serious options” under consideration is legalizing pot and other controlled substances, which would likely give the state an extra billion dollars a year in tax revenue. That simple act of political sanity would also save the state the $43,000 a year per inmate now spent incarcerating drug criminals, of whom a fresh nearly 19,000 were added in 2008 alone.
Finding places to cut costs without reducing the state to post-apocalyptic squalor shouldn’t be such a big deal, of course. As explained in California’s political newspaper Capital Weekly last week:
[N]ew revenue estimates released by the Department of Finance this week place the state’s general fund revenues at $85.9 billion—nearly $4 billion higher than they were just five years ago.
Even with the depleted funds caused by plunging home prices and a global economic slowdown, Gov. Schwarzenegger’s budget is still larger than his first budget in the 2004-05 budget year.
But in that first budget year, state spending was at $79.8 billion. Over the next two years, state spending jumped by more than 21 percent, to more than $101.4 billion in the 2006-07 budget year.
Current revenues, then, would allow for more spending than five years ago, a time in which state parks were open, schools functioned (though, as always, not very well), and the streets were not knee-deep with the neglected sick and poor.
As budget analyst Fred Silva told Capitol Weekly, solving California’s budget woes is not as simple as turning back the budget clock to 2004, largely because of locked-in—and crippling—pension and health care spending obligations. Certain cuts in health care, for example, would lead to the loss of federal revenue. And unions and state employees have no intention of making the state's solvency any easier.
Still, education spending has, according to state Sen. George Runner (R-Antelope Valley), writing at the California Policy Report news web site, “increased by $15 billion over the last decade even though there were 74,000 fewer students over that same period." State contributions to the government pension fund have, as Reason Foundation Policy Analyst Adam Summers notes, “jumped from $321 million in 2000-01 to $7.3 billion last year." It costs California nearly twice as much to house a prisoner per year as it costs Florida. Contemplating those facts, it’s obvious that the basic survival of the accoutrements of civilized living are not at stake in California’s fiscal crisis.
Indeed, living within the current income of the state should not be impossible, nor should it mark the end of civilization. Adjusted for inflation, California’s fiscal year 1991 revenue of $38 billion is still $25 billion less than their current revenue. As Summers explains, “If California had simply limited its spending increases to the 4.38 percent average increase in the state's consumer price index and population growth each year since FY 1990-91, the state would be sitting on a $15 billion surplus right now.”
The same holds for the United States as a whole: Federal revenues for 2007 ($2.6 trillion) are sufficient to have spent twice as much as federal outlays in 1975, adjusted for inflation, with no deficit at all. While life in these here United States was hellish on many levels in 1975, not least the fashions and food, even those with a much bigger appetite for government than I might agree that a government twice as big as what we enjoyed/suffered that year should be able to manage its necessary functions. (And no, there is no convincing reason that in a growing economy the government’s cash grab as a percentage of GDP should remain stable.)
When contemplating California’s fiscal present and the U.S.’s fiscal future, it’s not quite right to say that where California is now, the U.S. as a whole will follow. The U.S. is already in a deep hole, much deeper than California's, and has been for some time. Even President Barack Obama knows it. He told C-SPAN recently, with wonderfully disarming frankness, “we are out of money now.”
The U.S., unlike the state of California, when faced with a dearth of cash, can just make more, which is in essence Obama’s plan—for a while, at least. As in his most famous movie role as the Terminator, Schwarzenegger is metaphorically a visitor from a dangerous and unpleasant future that awaits the rest of the United States. The Golden State is absolutely a political bellwether now in the sense that the crisis-induced fiscal seriousness Schwarzenegger is at least pretending to attempt will be essential to the U.S. in the near future—and should be seen as essential this very second.
But while California can hold out hope that the federal government might bail it out of its troubles, the U.S. government, alas, has no higher power to which it can direct its own appeals. The buck stops there. The only problem, as Obama himself claims to understand, is they are all out of bucks.
Senior Editor Brian Doherty is author of This is Burning Man (BenBella), Radicals for Capitalism (PublicAffairs) and Gun Control on Trial (Cato Institute).
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bellWETHER!!! wether = "a male sheep castrated before sexual
maturity"
After that, wouldn't you want to wear a bell?
After that, wouldn't you want to wear a bell?
No way. All the other sheep could hear you coming and have time to
formulate various cutting remarks.
P.S. Any replies to this comment will most likely consist of ad
homs, as libertarians concede my points and show their childish,
anti-intellectual nature.
In order to pay my increased taxes, I'll have to forego a few luxuries that I've enjoyed for several years. Like buying a daily newspaper, for example.
"The bank is closed, the credit is dried up, and our day of
reckoning is here."
-Arnold Schwarzenegger - June 2, 2009
History will not look at all kindly on the people who did this to
us.
Kudos to Brian Doherty for pointing out something that I've
noticed for years: that most governments could have balanced
budgets by simply by spending what they spent a few years
ago.
In fact, give some Reason intern this task: a chart of California
(and federal) revenues and spending over the last however many
decades. The last time I saw such a chart for the feds, simply
freezing spending for about five years would balance the
budget.
After that, wouldn't you want to wear a bell?
About five years ago I was walking somewhere in the middle of
nowhere in rural England and it started storming hard so I took
shelter in the shed on a nearby farm. On the other side of the
shed's partitioning wall I could hear weak, belabored baa-ing. From
the single light bulb hanging from the ceiling. I could see that
all the walls were lined with small boxes, stacked floor to
ceiling, labeled CASTRATOR BOLTS. I was never even sure how bolts
would get involved.
most governments could have balanced budgets by simply by
spending what they spent a few years ago.
Get real, Papaya. How are Sens and Cons and Prezzes supposed to
look like they're doing stuff if they can't do stuff? How
are they supposed to get reelected then, huh? Won't someone think
of the politicians?
P.S. Any replies to this comment will most likely consist of ad
homs, as libertarians concede my points and show their childish,
anti-intellectual nature.
...and I went back out into the storm.
Fascitis stumbled, dazed, under the lighting-torn sky. Why had he
gone in that shed? The horror. THE HORROR. He couldn't find his
bearings, but he had to get out of the rain-lashed open.
Suddenly he heard the sound of smashing wood behind him. He spun
around, heart pumping with fear and a sudden dread.
Out from the smashed side of the shed shambled a figure. At first
Fascitis thought it was a sheep, as it seemed to be covered in
wool, but then, to his horror, Fascitis recognized what it
was.
LoneWacko straightened up under the nightmare sky, his bloody
sheepskin and sheep's head flexing over his emaciated body. in his
hand he held a castration machine, with fresh bolts.
"Come here, my friend," he moaned through his blood-caked,
slit-like mouth. "It's your turn, and I'm still hungry."
Fascitis turned and ran, with the shambling, gurgling sounds of
LoneWacko's pursuit growing louder behind him.
In the end, it is the pension plans that are killing state
budgets, just like they killed GM. I think some of the statistics
cited in the article concerning spending growth are somewhat
distorted in that past spending was artificially low due to
under-funding pension plans, which are now coming home to roost. If
pensions had been funded properly, past spending would have been
higher and current spending could be eased, making growth appear
smaller.
Does anyone out there really think that there are more cops, better
roads, or more park rangers than 20 years ago? Neither do I. Almost
all the growth has been in prisons, pensions, and health care.
*twitches*
You had to bring it all back, damn you Epi.
I guess know you all know why I wear this bell...
History will not look at all kindly on the people who did
this to us.
Which won't save us from doom. Because a dim view from future
history books is about the only price politicians ever pay.
Our politicians are only doing what representative democracies give
them every incentive to do.
Of course, the future history books will be far more interesting
with that sheep story running through them. A thousand years from
now they'll still be wondering what those bolts were for.
Reason - this time through Brian Doherty - continue to be
incredibly intellectually dishonest.
Here's a comment I left on an earlier entry here:
Reason's complaints about subsidies and the problems CA is having
might mean something if they didn't support massive subsidies and
if their ideology hadn't played a role in helping CA get into the
shape it is.
Reason has consistently supported MassiveImmigration
without making eliminating the WelfareState a
precondition. That MassiveImmigration has not only greatly
increased spending by CA, it's given a massive subsidy to crooked
businesses. And, it's given a great deal of PoliticalPower to the
far-left; the far-left has responded by using their additional
power to push for more spending.
I frankly don't know whether Reason is corrupt or stupid, but it
doesn't really matter. Their ideas have been shown to be faulty and
no one should take their advice on getting out of the problems
their ideology helped create.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
a scary and instructive look at America's future
Also known as: how many column inches Brian can fill up saying "we
are all so fucked".
Close the state parks? Hell, why not sell the state
parks? When families and companies run into difficult financial
straits, the cut spending and sell some of their less
important assets e.g. the 2nd BMW, that logging firm we
acquired.
P.S. Any replies to this comment will most likely consist of ad
homs, as libertarians concede my points and show their childish,
anti-intellectual nature.
CALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIACALIFORNIA
When in Rome, do as the Romans.
The end of the Republic is near. The rise of the Empire is also
near.
Let's hope it doesn't literally begin with Obama.
Also known as: how many column inches Brian can fill up
saying "we are all so fucked".
If only he was wrong.
P.S. Any replies to this comment will most likely consist of ad
homs, as libertarians concede my points and show their childish,
anti-intellectual nature.
The focus on California is sensible, as it's big and has constant demonstrations of the pitfalls of statism. I'm very happy for Texas to remain ignored by Reason, as that means it isn't being too nuts.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will
almost assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and
showing the childish, anti-intellectual nature of
libertarians.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
WOULDN'T IT BE FUNNY IF LONEWACKO TURNED OUT TO BE LONEJACKO, I.E., MICHAEL JACKSON? IT WOULD EXPLAIN A GREAT MANY THINGS.
I'm very happy for Texas to remain ignored by Reason, as
that means it isn't being too nuts.
From a practical perspective, what saves Texas is the extremely
limited time we allow the Lege to meet. I have no doubt if the Lege
were in session all year, every year like Congress and most states,
we'd be equally as hosed.
P.S. Any replies to this ad hom will most likely consist of
comments, as libertarians concede my childish, anti-intellectual
nature and show their points.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will
almost assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and
showing the childish, anti-intellectual nature of
libertarians.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
I think my favorite part of that disclaimer is that LoneWacko
believes he really is an intellectual, and not just an unlovable
racist nutjob.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
"Of course, the future history books will be far more
interesting with that sheep story running through them. A thousand
years from now they'll still be wondering what those bolts were
for."
Which reminds me -- what would historians 150,000 years from now
conclude about 20th century Earth if the only thing they had to go
on was a boxed set of "Mr. Ed: DVD's?
Warty, you fool, you are going to put us into a LoneWacko
MetaDeathSpiral!
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
For every illegal immigrant that Reason helps me get kicked out
of the country I, as a reward, will post one picture of me
performing auto fellatio. To me this sounds like a win-win for
everyone.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
"as a reward, will post one picture of me performing auto
fellatio"
He blows cars?
uh oh, somebody's cruising for a ban. The reason editors, for some bizarre reason, don't take Lonewacko spoofs lightly. Just ask me.
Federal revenues for 2007 ($2.6 trillion) are sufficient to
have spent twice as much as federal outlays in 1975, adjusted for
inflation, with no deficit at all.
I don't like this trend either but a more meaningful figure would
be federal outlays, adjusted for inflation and population growth.
The U.S. population in 1975 was
almost a third lower.
Current revenues, then, would allow for more spending than
five years ago, a time in which state parks were open, schools
functioned... and the streets were not knee-deep with the neglected
sick and poor.
It was noted during the Ron Paul campaign that his proposal for
abolishing the federal income tax, if matched dollar for dollar
with spending cuts, would still leave the federal budget at its
level of just ten years prior.
Now with Obama in charge, eliminating the income tax (and cutting
spending to match) would leave spending at levels from just ONE
year ago (admittedly with very large deficits, but we have those
anyway.)
The end of the Republic is near. The rise of the Empire is
also near.
No, the Republic died in either 1865 or 1913, depending on whether
"consent of the governed" or "limited government" is your
yardstick.
The Empire started in 1898, and will most likely fizzle out due to
lack of funding and collapse of the Imperial currency any day
now....
T, you'd like my letter in the Chronicle today:
Regarding "Legislature adjourns with work unfinished" (Page A1,
Tuesday), despite all the whining and finger-pointing, it's
probably a good thing that the Legislature failed to accomplish
much of anything this session. Given the lack of intelligence
demonstrated by its members, Texans should feel relieved that they
were unable to affect their lives in any significant way.
- Nigel Watt, Houston
The Empire started in 1898, and will most likely fizzle out
due to lack of funding and collapse of the Imperial currency any
day now....
and then?
please say zombie plague because I IS READY!
Today, Arnold is pushing the idea of free digital books for all
the publick schools:
The state currently spends about $330 million on instructional
materials each year. Reaching the governor's cost-saving estimate
related to digital textbooks - hundreds of millions of dollars -
would require eliminating nearly all state funding for regular
textbooks or other materials.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2009/06/03/MNPP17VN0R.DTL
"please say zombie plague because I IS READY!"
Don't zombies suck out human brains?
Isn't that also what Tiller did?
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will
almost assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and
showing the childish, anti-intellectual nature of
libertarians.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
I think my favorite part of that disclaimer is that LoneWacko
believes he really is an intellectual, and not just an unlovable
racist nutjob.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
Wheeeeee! Death spiral! It's not just for world-leading economies
any longer!
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
it's probably a good thing that the Legislature failed to
accomplish much of anything this session.
Always a feature, never a bug. Why people can't draw the connection
between always on legislatures and runaway government is beyond me.
I guess it's because they have so few examples of the opposite.
I don't like this trend either but a more meaningful figure
would be federal outlays, adjusted for inflation and population
growth. The U.S. population in 1975 was almost a third
lower.
I think government spending as a fraction of GDP is most relevant.
It has been more or less constant for decades, with spending just
over 20% at the federal level, and tax revenues just a bit under
20%. That ~3% gap has been the source of our troubles.
And no, a 3% of GDP tax increase at the federal level (and about 1%
more at the state level) will not collapse the economy, nor even
have a measurable effect.
Just admit it! Wouldn't it be awesome if California went bankrupt? Another day in paradise!
I have never been as proud of the participants of this board as
I am on this day.
P.S. In case anyone replies to this, their responses will almost
assuredly be ad homs, thereby conceding my points and showing the
childish, anti-intellectual nature of libertarians.
California's public sector unions are now my problem. And I'm not happy about it.
From a practical perspective, what saves Texas is the
extremely limited time we allow the Lege to meet.
It sure helps. They just went home, and I was reviewing the report
on hospital legislation. Mountains of bad bills died in committee
or on the floor for lack of a vote.
And no, a 3% of GDP tax increase spending
cut at the federal level (and about 1% more at the state
level) will not collapse the economy
society, nor even have a measurable
effect.
Why assume that a tax increase to close the gap is the only way to
go, Chad? Why not a spending cut?
I think government spending as a fraction of GDP is most
relevant. It has been more or less constant for decades, with
spending just over 20% at the federal level.
This is still true today only if you look at the on-budget items
and ignore everything else. It's a bunch of B.S. once you include
the bailouts, the stimulus packages, etcetera.
I just heard that we have spent more in 6 months than in the last 30 years. Is this true?
Here's a few ways to start cutting CA state spending;
1-all state worker salary's over $100,000 will be cut to $99,999,
no 6 digit salary's.
2-cut legislature per diem expenses to cover only 2 months in
capital, not the current 12 months.
3-cancel all taxpayer contributions to state worker pensions
indefinitely, at least for 5 years.
4-all state worker salary's under $100,000, should be cut 15%, and
frozen indefinitely.
5-cut cost/prisoner to national average, half of current
levels.
6-issue layoffs to 10% of all state workers, starting with the most
senior, issue another 10% until budget begins to generate surplus
and we begin paying down past debts.
Please add your ideas, I am sure that there are more constructive
ideas about how to cut state spending in CA.
thanks!!
I am a right-wing marijuana smoker. (One of three nationally, I believe) The problem I have with this story and other Libertarian musings on prohibition is the stance that pot-heads get locked up. I've been smoking pot for 13 years and have understandably made a lot of pot-head friends. I have never, ever heard of any of them getting locked up for smoking weed. Has anyone ever read about a guy who did jail time for simple posession? It doesn't happen. Even in the deep south, people don't go to jail for blazing it up. I'm sure that many Reason readers have been pulled over with a roach in their ashtray. And I'm sure that their experiences with with law enforcement have been the same as mine, mainly getting sent on your way with no charge. Even if you get arrested for having a bag of weed in your pocket, what judge in America would throw you in jail? People get locked up for selling cocaine and heroin. One must make that distinction.
I live in California, and it is a total disaster. Despite wasted spending on the teachers union to raise pay for incompetent teachers, are schools are in the bottom 10 nationally. Because of environmental issues, we are not allowed to produce any energy (no plants built in the last 50 years), so energy costs skyrocket. Because of environmental issues (some small species of fish), we cannot get water from our main sources, so we are forced to pay higher taxes. They keep raising our taxes and lowering the benefits. Our small business is planning to leave the state (along with most rational people). The state is in horrible financial trouble and they think that they can just raise taxes and cut services to get out of the problem. Liberal fools have been running this state into the ground. If you want to know where our country is headed, look at what is happening in California.
All California and the rest of the states have to do is tell all the government employees they can have their pensions but they must wait until they're 62 or 66 to collect them just like the rest of the population has to wait and there will be no double dipping. Crisis over
My barber just got the contract to cut the hair for poor children. How many other programs like this are there?
OK, the closing the State Parks deal has my bullshit alarm
blaring.
I mean this sounds to me like another political scare tactic.
So, I know that SP entry fees don't cover all costs, but seriously,
shutting down something that actually gets revenue sounds pretty
stupid. And, of course it never occurred to anyone to make State
parks self-supporting, did it?
Or don't CA SPs have entry fees?
Politicians are like drunks - you can't leave them alone with
themselves.
Two Constitutional amendments need to be enacted 1) limits the
amount of money the state can collect in taxes and debt 2) Flat
percentage sales tax that is tacked on to the final sale to the
consumer.
Until this happens this is just a circus and we are all clowns.
The lies about the pay and pensions of Cal. State Workers
continues.
Fact: My last pay raise was in July 2006.
Fact: My pay has been cut 10% in response to the fiscal crisis. I'm
now earning waht I did in July 2006, MINUS 10%.
Fact: My pension is paid by deducting 6% from my salary. The State
pays NOTHING!
Fact: The State has made no contributions to any pension fund in
years. NOTHING!
Stop the lies!
Although I absolutely agree government spending needs to
decrease, I feel the need to point out a couple things, one, a
common mistake and two, a very obvious omission by the Author to
make Government looking even more bloated than it is..
Your inflation adjusted comparisons are quite eye opening, but only
if you believe the PHONY CPI.
Everyone knows prices go up more than the CPI reflects and the fact
that governments can't get things done unless they spend far far
more than the "inflation adjusted" amount.
Now, if you use the inflation rate, the very one the U.S.
government used until 1991, you will find prices actually increased
nearly double the "official" amount. shadowgovernment.com
In addition, not only would you need to adjust for inflation but
also in population growth. For example, if inflation is ZERO from
1999 to 2009, does that mean the California budget should increase
by Zero? The answer to that is if the economy grows along with
population, the budget must increase.
Why did the Author leave out the above little fact?
That said, sorry public employees, it is time to do with less.
Sorry Health Care Providers, it is time to give up profits and stop
preventing the huge tax savings a One Payer System would bring.
Over 55,000 people die on our highways each year; let's legalize pot so that we can boost this number... Why not legalize prostitution in California? Oh, I forgot, they already did that. They're called the Democratic Legislature...
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