Alito Hints That The Dobbs Knew A Member of the Majority Would Be Subject To Assassination

This strongly suggests Alito does not think a conservative leaked to "lock in" the votes.

Jan Crawford sat down with Justice Alito for an extended interview. There is so much to highlight. But I think this discussion of the Dobbs leak is significant:

The fallout began in late April 2022, when Politico notified the Court that it had a copy of the draft and intended to publish it. The justices were gathered in the Court's private dining room for one of their regular lunches when the chief justice told them of the leak. By tradition, the justices have lunch together when they're in the building for arguments or conference, sometimes a few days a week. It's a chance for them to talk about anything other than the cases. That's the one rule.

Hearing during a collegial lunch that a draft opinion had leaked for the first time in Court history was difficult for the justices to process. Alito said he was "stunned."

"It was quite a shock," Alito said. "But within a relatively short period of time, the thought occurred to me, and I think to the others in the majority, that this would endanger us. And it made us targets for assassination."

Security, Alito said, ramped up immediately. A month later, in June of 2022, the world would know why. In the middle of the night, as Justice Brett Kavanaugh and his family slept in their Maryland home, a would-be assassin approached their backyard with a bag containing a gun and rounds of ammunition, a knife and nail punch, duct tape, zip ties, a crowbar and other burglary tools, including special shoes to silence his footsteps.

He was intent on killing justices before the Court released its Dobbs decision. With its narrow 5-4 majority, it would only take one justice. He said on private messaging boards he aimed to kill at least three of the conservatives and, as prosecutors later put it, "single-handedly and irrevocably to alter an entire branch of the United States government."

At the last minute, the man spoke to his sister on his cell phone, and she managed to talk him out of it. He was arrested and later convicted for the attempted assassination of Kavanaugh.

"His goal was to change the decision in the case. So that was quite predictable," Alito said. "And whoever leaked it knew or had good reason to know that that would be the consequence of leaking it. And Politico knew, or should've known, that that would be the consequence of their decision to publish it."

Politico has explained its decision to publish the leaked draft as an "unprecedented view into the justices' deliberations" that is "plainly news of great public interest."

The leaker remains unknown. After Politico published its piece in early May, one theory was that a conservative had leaked the draft to keep the five votes in place, in case any of the justices in the majority were wavering. Alito was almost incredulous at the suggestion.

"It's implausible that any of us would have done that for exactly the reason I've mentioned, because this pinned a target on our backs," Alito said. "And it was very fortunate that that planned attack (on Kavanaugh) was not successful."

There were two general theories of who might have leaked the opinion. One theory is the leak came from the right as a means to lock in the votes and prevent a flip. As second theory is the leak came from the left as a means to put pressure on the majority to flip the vote, or worse, plant the seeds for deligitimizing the Court.

Alito says quite clearly that whoever leaked should have been aware that the publication would put a bullseye on the back of the five-member majority. No conservative would plausibly take that action. Alito firmly rejects the first theory. The second theory remains viable.

Crawford also confirms that Justice Thomas assigned the majority opinion.

With Roberts in dissent, urging the five not to overturn Roe, Thomas was the senior justice in the majority. He assigned Alito the opinion.

This was the speculation, and reinforces that from the get-go, Chief Justice Roberts did not support overruling Roe.