Open Thread

What’s on your mind?

Comments

[Kazinski]

Interesting observations now that Elon has started posting location of Twitter accounts:

"Seeing the sheer number of people on the 'American online right' exposed to be foreigners is frankly relieving. Given many of these accounts have been actively stoking the flames of the little civil war we are having on the right at the moment, their locations being posted is huge.

Go into any hot topic political conversation on twitter right now. Go into the comments. Find the most inflammatory comments pushing the hardest and the strongest on the most radical position.

You'll find them filled with people from Europe. India. The Philippines. The Middle East. Australia. Nigeria. Malaysia.

I'm batting about 75% in being able to guess who is American and who is not."

I spend some time on X, bit generally only follow people I know, and I don't spend much time on the "For You" curated feed, so I haven't seen much of this.

https://x.com/MichaelFKane/status/1992408403981824095

I don't have any problem with people commenting on US politics, bit its nice to know where they are actually from.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Ummmmm -- just because someone has an overseas IP address doesn't mean the person is.

"[Eastern] Europe. India. The Philippines. The Middle East. Australia. Nigeria. Malaysia." -- countries not known for overly aggressive regulation of the internet...

Well I don't know about Australia, but the others....

[AmosArch]

Most people are looking at Ukraine in a very localized context. Is it worth it, spending a ton of money to throw the dice for a victorious Ukraine as a bulwark against Russia vs not spending money and possibly have an emboldened Russia at Europe's doorstep?

The Trump Admin on the other hand is looking at things on a more globalized context. Trump's gambit, which I don't see taken into account by most commentators is try to woo Russia away from China's orbit. For them the question is not just Ukraine vs Russia but how would China and the overall balance of power be shifted depending on how we react?

Sure it might feel good to spank Russia completely but it could come at the cost of driving them further into China's arms in addition to all the resources we'd expend to do it. With this calculation in mind I think the Dem/EU argument to stay the course and spend untold billions more in the gamble that Russia somehow is completely defeated, which nobody is sure what it will look like, becomes much more questionable.

Possible objections:

1. Russia is an existential thread to the US
I don't think Russia is a conventional existential threat even if they somehow conquered the whole of Ukraine, aside from their nukes of course which would be a bigger threat if we took the Dem/EU path of attempting total Russian annihilation. Frankly I'm not even sure they're a conventional threat to the EU at least if the EU ever decides to get its act together they should easily spank Russia in a conventional war.

2. Russia and China are natural allies
Russia and China are actually more naturally rivals of each other with plenty of behind the scenes tension. Russia would benefit far more with a weakening China than one gaining strength and vice versa. And this is what the Admin is trying to exploit.

3. Putin and his gang are on the way out. We just need to kick in the door to make a western aligned Russia pop out from his downfall.
Could be an interesting premise but unfortunately there is not much evidence that this would happen. Even if you ignore internal polling, anecdotal reports and indirect measurements like approval for Trump appear to indicate Putin's regime maintains a base of support. Anything could happen and Putin can be overthrown tomorrow but there isn't enough evidence to go the other way of attempting total Russian humiliation in the hopes that the new regime with thank us for it.

4. A Russian total defeat would be the best option from a global balance of power perspective.
Not so sure about that. Maybe if this led to the collapse of Putin and a emergence of a strongly proWestern competent Russia but as I have pointed out above this is far from certain. Its very possible even a defeated Russia will remain hostile. So even if we fulfill Reddits wildest dreams and completely spank Russia with no face saving whatsoever what do we get out of it? Possibly just an emptier wallet and a pissed off Russia who is more of a threat as an even closer geopolitical vassal of China.

Now I am not saying we should let Russia win from all of this. In a way they've already lost big time and its deserved. Just maybe tone things down and bit and let them slink off saving a bit of face like for example through a timely peace process might be a bit more profitable than the HOORAA total undisputed 10 billion to zero humiliation blowout some people claim to want.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Which is why I ask the question below.

[AmosArch]

btw this is presuming the Ukraine situation is a quagmire with no end in sight as it appears. If the Ukrainians are able to completely defeat the Russians without the US blowing out its bank account. They should be allowed to without interference.

[Commenter_XY]

UKR is not, and never was, a vital US national interest.

UKR suffers from endemic corruption (only Russians are more corrupt, and that is saying a lot). UKR is neither a member of the EU nor NATO. We have no agreements with UKR (as in, a treaty obligation). Ukrainians have imbibed antisemitism from the cradle, like mother's milk (Shamir was right about this, vis a vis Poland, and UKR is no different). There is no shared history btwn UKR and America.

If UKR disappeared tomorrow, would America be affected? No, not really. When RUS takes over the east region, they will inherit even more corrupt bureaucratic functionaries; they can have them.

UKR is a European problem. People like Eurotrash can address it. Then again, people like Eurotrash will lie supine before the RUS bear instead of addressing it.

[Malika la Maize]

Is Israel a vital US national interest?

[Armchair]

The objection I've seen to this from the left is that "Putin cannot be trusted. No peace with Russia where they have any armed forces left to attack is valid. There can be no peace with Russia so long as they have an army left".

[Malika la Maize]

Cite?

[Dr. Ed 2]

There is another side of Ukraine that no one is mentioning -- Yugoslavia & Chechnya.

What is Europe going to do if this becomes a racial guerrilla war? Between what Putin has done here (e.g. the kidnapped children, the war crimes) and what Stalin did in the 1930s, there is enough animosity to generate terrorism, which a corrupt government (Putin) is particularly vulnerable to.

For example, how effective would the TSA be if they were routinely being bribed to let people carry prohibited items onto planes, etc.?

Is Trump failing to listen to the one wise thing that Woodrow Wilson said -- that an unjust peace treaty will lead to another war in a generation...

[Dr. Ed 2]

And how bad is China's economic mess?

If Evergrande is only the tip of the iceberg, which I was led to believe it was, then what's become of everything else?

[Commenter_XY]

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/418110

Nothing to see here...

Park East Synagogue Cantor Benny Rogosnitzky told the Post that demonstrators shouted explicit calls for violence against Jews, including "Kill the Jews," as well as "Destroy Israel" and "No Jews in America."

[Dr. Ed 2]

I ask again: Exactly what part of "Kill the Jews" do American Jews not understand?!?

[BrotherMovesOn]

O Dr. Ed!

[Kazinski]

An article DN posted Friday on the Chinese Soybean purchases got me to look at the Soybean Commodity futures graph.

I had been hearing a lot this year about how farmers were being hit by lower prices due to Trump's tariffs, and I took it at face value. But it turns out to be all bullshit. Sure Soybean prices are low, but the market collapse was May-June 2024.

Here are the peaks and valleys of Soybean prices Soybean Prices starting with the post pandemic peak:
Feb 2023 - 1542.00
Then a steady decline until:
Feb 2024 1141.75
And then a modest rebound peaked
May 28, 2024 1248.00
Then the roof fell in and it hit a low down ~20% from the May high.
Dec 18, 2024. 953

Soybeans have traded in a fairly narrow range since July of 2024, never going above 1060, until Trump announced the China deal, and now they are at 1126, up about 10% from the average range over the past year.

And yet there are literally dozens of headlines blaming Trump tariffs for the Soybean slump that started more than 6 months before he took office.

https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=2e41414a5e61d415&q=trump+tariffs+soybean+farmers&tbm=nws

Soybean data here:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ZSW00:CBOT

[Commenter_XY]

Don't confuse the uber-libs with actual numbers and facts, Kaz. They will be triggered.

[Mr. Bumble]

Uber "Libertarian" with metastatic TDS David Notsoimportant's
post:

David Nieporent 2 days ago
Flag Comment
Mute User

I'm shocked, shocked to find out how incompetent Donald Trump is yet again: US soybean shipments to China sit idle despite Beijing's pledge to buy big

Though I'm not sure this reflects incompetence so much as laziness and malice. Trump couldn’t give a fuck about Americans, let alone American farmers; all he wanted was a headline saying he had done something. He got that, so his work was done.

[Kazinski]

I'm not really blaming Dave, I fell for the line that low soybean prices were hurting farmers (true), and that it was Trump's fault (false), too.

The only reason I had taken a closer look is because so saw that the future had made a big move two weeks ago, so the headline didn't make sense, and I took a closer look.

But who knows maybe this will get him to not swallow every anti Trump headline hook line and sinker, but I doubt it.

[Commenter_XY]

Sadly, David went off the deep end after POTUS Trump won the 2024 election. David never expected that, despite being told that the race dynamics had changed in late September, and that PA had swung to POTUS Trump in early October.

It is tough being on the losing side, watching it all slip away.

[Malika la Maize]

We get the Sherrill election was tough for you.

[Commenter_XY]

Thanksgiving is almost upon us, and I know that pecan and pumpkin pies are in vogue. However, pound cake is also a tradition around this time of year.

https://myownsweetthyme.com/2021/07/a-basic-old-fashioned-pound-cake/

This is my basic 'go to' recipe. Very simple. Two enhancements you can do: Add 1 TBSP lemon juice, and 1 TBSP of baking powder.

Start with room temperature ingredients. I cannot emphasize this enough. And a KitchenAid stand mixer is your best friend.

[Mr. Bumble]

FWIW Elvis Presley's favorite pound cake.
https://www.food.com/recipe/elvis-presleys-favorite-whipping-cream-pound-cake-36806
Will have to talk my wife into making it again. When he was growing up it was my son's favorite dessert.

[Commenter_XY]

I am just getting to the point of being acquainted enough with my TN neighbors to trade a few recipes. Took a while.

[Malika la Maize]

In an era defined by major political divisions and massive wealth accumulation for the richest Americans, billionaires are spending unprecedented amounts on U.S. politics. Dozens have stepped up their political giving in recent years, leading to a record-breaking surge of donations by the ultrarich in 2024. Since 2000, political giving by the wealthiest 100 Americans to federal elections has gone up almost 140 times, well outpacing the growing costs of campaigns, a Washington Post analysis found.

In 2000, the country’s wealthiest 100 people donated about a quarter of 1 percent of the total cost of federal elections, according to a Post analysis of data from OpenSecrets. By 2024, they covered about 7.5 percent, even as the cost of such elections soared. In other words, roughly 1 in every 13 dollars spent in last year’s national elections was donated by a handful of the country’s richest people...

Overall, billionaires have rallied behind Trump’s Republican Party. More than 80 percent of the federal campaign spending by the 100 wealthiest Americans in 2024 went to Republicans, The Post found.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2025/billionaires-politics-money-influence/

[Commenter_XY]

Surprising no one, yet again, the human animals known as hamas are violating yet another ceasefire with Israel.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-874835

This time, there will be no quarter. The traditional rules of the neighborhood shall apply; submit, or die. And they (hamas) can all die; the world will be a materially safer place with all hamas members dead.

[Malika la Maize]

Well, it finally happened. As of Friday, Ford built the last Focus.

The news supposedly first came courtesy of the Blue Oval’s employees, after which the company confirmed to Motor1 that the final example was a white five-door hatchback.

Now, Ford hasn’t exactly been shy about its discontinuation plans for the model. Quite the opposite — it first pulled the Focus from the American market in 2018, and it later announced that electrification would eventually bring an end to the nameplate in Europe (targeting this year).

Still, even with the advance notice, the retirement of the Focus amounts to a great loss to the industry. It not only speaks to the state of the Blue Oval’s own lineup, but also to that of the automotive world at large.

https://www.gearpatrol.com/cars/ford-focus-production-discontinued/

[Commenter_XY]

There are plenty of ICE (internal combustion engine) cars to replace the Focus. The industry is unaffected by the Ford Focus going away.

It was a car, with nothing particularly outstanding about it.