Israel Strikes Iran. Is Escalation Inevitable?

U.S. involvement in the new Middle East conflict, political violence at home, and the No Kings protests

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Israel Strikes Iran. Is Escalation Inevitable?

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This week, editors Peter Suderman, Katherine Mangu-Ward, and Matt Welch are joined by Reason reporter Matthew Petti to break down the fallout from Israel's strike on Iran, the likelihood of escalation, and what role the U.S. is already playing in the conflict.

They also cover the Minnesota assassinations and the growing fears of political violence, and offer a firsthand account from one of the nationwide No Kings protests. Finally, they answer a listener's question about libertarian reactions to anti-ICE demonstrations and examine the broader implications of President Donald Trump's shifting immigration enforcement policies.

0:00 - Political violence in America

8:17 - What role does America play in the Israel and Iran conflict?

17:56 - The risk of escalation and expansion in the Middle East

25:26 - How Trump differs from Bush on foreign policy

28:41 - What have we learned from this Middle East conflict?

33:09 - Listener question: Why are libertarians critical of the anti-ICE protests?

38:59 - Observations on the No Kings protests

46:29 - Trump's shifting stance on the ICE raids

51:27 - Is Trump policy driven by personal enrichment?

54:31 - Weekly cultural recommendations

 

Mentioned in this Podcast:

"Israel Attacks Iran—and Burns Down the Off-Ramp With America," by Matthew Petti

"Are We Going to War With Iran or Not?" by Matthew Petti

"Cutting Off Israel," by Matt Welch

"Prediction: 2024 Will See Deadly Political Violence in the Streets," by Matt Welch

"The Tom Cotton Do-Over," by Matt Welch

"More Than 1,800 'No Kings' Protests Aim for Nonviolent Pushback Against Trump Policies," by Nancy Rommelmann

"ICE on Ice," by Eric Boehm

"California Immigration Raids Are Hurting American Citizens Too," by Autumn Billings

"Los Angeles Is Not Burning," by Nancy Rommelmann

"Brian Wilson Was an Exemplary American," by Brian Doherty

Upcoming Reason events:

• Reason Versus debate: Jacob Sullum and Billy Binion vs. Charles Fain Lehman and Rafael Mangual, June 24
• Reason Speakeasy: Nick Gillespie and Elizabeth Nolan Brown on the MAHA Movement, June 25
• The Reason Roundtable Live in NYC! July 15

 

Today's sponsors:

• Reliance College: What if one day could change how you think—how you lead—and how you shape your future? Join Reliance College for Reliance Day—Saturday, June 28th in Los Angeles! This one-day, high-impact experience is designed for students, professionals, and lifelong learners ready to level up their thinking in an AI-driven world. At Reliance Day, you'll dive into collaborative Socratic discussions and sharpen the critical thinking and leadership skills that drive success in college, business, and life. It's a full day of intellectual challenge and creative exploration—rooted in the Great Books and Montessori-inspired methods that have transformed over 400 lives. Go to RelianceCollege.org/reliancedays to register today
• Future of Freedom: If you're tired of cable news debates and Twitter shouting matches, and you're looking for serious, good-faith conversations between people who actually care about liberty then it's time to check out the Future of Freedom podcast. Each episode dives deep into a single topic—tariffs, campus speech, the Department of Government Efficiency—and brings together two guests who disagree on the best path forward. But here's the twist: This isn't a debate show. No interrupting. No dunking. If you believe the future of freedom depends on more than just winning arguments and you're ready for something deeper than the usual echo chambers, check out the Future of Freedom podcast. Real disagreement. Real ideas. Real conversations. Subscribe to Future of Freedom wherever you get your podcasts.

• Video Editor: Ian Keyser
• Producer: Paul Alexander

What are we consuming this week?

Matt Welch

• Political Beats

Katherine Mangu-Ward

• Materialists

Peter Suderman

• Materialists

Matthew Petti

• My Life as a Spy, by Katherine Verdery

---

Comments

[damikesc]

Oh, fears about political violence are NOW starting?

Trump's MULTIPLE assassination attempts did not? Attempt on Kavanaugh did not? The Bernie Bro trying to wipe out the entire Republican softball team did not? Leftists fire bombing Secret Service bases and burning down a church in DC did not? Considerable support for somebody who openly assassinated a CEO? Fire bombing Teslas did not?

So, you're oblivious?

[Social Justice is neither]

Look, those and many others were carried out by people and for an ideology Reason writers support so those were all fine and good, except for the aim.

[Bipedal Humanoid]

That's (D)ifferent.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Crooks was a gun nut MAGA Republican!! Good riddance!

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

^ Lies like turd.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Yeah, liberals are known as gun owners that join the shooting team at school. Also, liberals always register as Republican to vote for Nelson Rockefeller. /sarc

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

S B-F is not only a pathological liar, he swallows lefty propaganda like he does droolin Joe's jism:

"...Crooks’ political leanings were not immediately clear. Records show Crooks was registered as a Republican voter in Pennsylvania, but federal campaign finance reports also show he gave $15 to a progressive political action committee on Jan. 20, 2021, the day Biden was sworn into office..."
https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5

No liberal ever shot a gun and no lefty twat ever flew a false flag.
Like I mentioned, the TDS-addled shit pile lies like turd.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Crooks registered as a Republican…not even Sherlock Holmes could figure out that mystery! /sarc

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

"Crooks registered as a Republican..."

Please tell us you're a lying pile of lefty shit without saying you're a lying pile of lefty shit...
Oh! You just DID!
Fuck off and die, asshole.

[Don't look at me! (I miss having inflation)]

Israel Strikes Iran. Is Escalation Inevitable?

No. There are only so many targets worth hitting in Iran.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

So it’s like Afghanistan in 2002…and so we wrapped up the GWOT, right??

[Riva]

And it won’t be forever. Could be a few days. A week at the latest.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Trump is about to titty fuck Iran! Nasty style!!

[Marylandman, Battling for Truth Justice, and the American Way]

This article just came out, and it’s already aging poorly…..

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran-israel-nuclear/2025/06/16/id/1215129/

FTA:
“With Israel claiming air superiority over Iran's capital city of Tehran, Iran is reportedly sending urgent signals to Israel, U.S. Arab allies, and European officials it wants a ceasefire and a return to diplomacy.”

Reason has hit rock bottom, and continues to dig.

[BYODB]

Depends how you define 'escalate' since Iran has been funding terrorists aiming to genocide Jews for longer than these authors have been alive.

I suppose outright war is an 'escalation' but at some point this was inevitable since Iran has signaled for decades that they want the bomb, and if that isn't an 'escalation' than I don't know what the fuck is.

In fact that's exactly what Israel is doing. They saw how 'supportive' the U.S. has been to Iranian nuclear development, especially with Obama sending them pallets of cash used to kill both Jews and Americans, and realized they were probably going to have to do something themselves when Iran got close to making a bomb. Apparently nobody cares that one of the biggest sponsors of terrorism on the planet might get nukes except Israel, and only because they know who that bomb is intended for.

Now, Iran might be smarter than expected and MAD theory might prevail but theocratic sponsors of terrorism might prove to be the exception to that rule.

[Marylandman, Battling for Truth Justice, and the American Way]

Check the link I posted above. They’re being bombed straight to the peace table.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Just keep in mind the precipitating event for 10/7 was the Abraham Accords. So Hamas was desperate and they lashed out. So at some point Israel does need to give Iran an out…because they will never get the government they want in Iran and you can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Trump’s surrender to the Taliban is the best example of something that looks terrible but is the best deal.

[Spiritus Mundi]

Just keep in mind the precipitating event for 10/7 was the Abraham Accords.

Bullshit

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

Lies like turd, does S B-F. Lying pile of lefty shit.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Kushner was a brilliant geopolitical strategist! /sarc

[Marylandman, Battling for Truth Justice, and the American Way]

Is Retard Fraud really claiming that 10/7 is Trump’s fault because of his diplomatic efforts are inching ME countries towards peace?

He really is the worst kind of filth.

[AT]

Let's hope so. We don't have those nukes stockpiled just for them to collect dust.

I want the nuclear annihilation of Iran sometime within my lifetime please. They're on the ropes. Now's not the time to back off. To steal from Barack Obama, if the USA wants to be on the "right side of history," now's the time to tag in and deal the knockout blow that our Israeli friends set up.

Or, if we want to be really cool, since Israel did what we should have done decades ago - we offer them our unwavering vocal support and offer any assistance they ask for. And let them drive home the deathblow. They've earned it.

[Marylandman, Battling for Truth Justice, and the American Way]

I would settle for Israel degrading the regime’s ability to control their country enough for the Iranian people to overthrow and execute all the mullahs. So long as the next government is more pre 1979, and not run by any Islamists.

[Bipedal Humanoid]

Yes...whatever removes the death cult of Islam.

[bye]

Only Freedom of Religion will do that. IF there is no God or Religion then the state becomes God and Religion.
So Reason is utterly blameworthy in its contribution to the terrors of our time.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Regime change is extremely easy with no down sides whatsoever.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Sun Tzu—always give your enemy an out. So in 2025 you take out the enemy’s air force and their navy and then give them a way to prevent their sea port and rail lines from being destroyed. Israel doesn’t even need to degrade their army because Hezbollah was their army that could attack Israel.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

Unconditional surrender worked just fine in '45.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Not really, the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 was unconditional surrender. To this day we have military bases in Japan and Germany.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

^ Bet this SOB's eyes are brown since he's so full of shit.
That excuse has been floated by every Nazi apologist since November '39, when Hitler invaded POLAND (the wrong direction!)
And you do know the bases are there at the request of Germany and Japan, but I'll bet you had some other reason in mind.
Now tell us that Hitler really wasn't that bad and all those Jews were killed without his knowledge.
Or do your family a favor: Fuck off and die, ass wipe.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

I’m not a Tucker Carlson Republican. I’m just saying we brought Japan and Germany to their knees…but we didn’t abandon them. Israel can’t help Iran like we nation builded in Japan and Germany. And we have no appetite for nation building after Bush screwed up everything after 9/11.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

"I’m not a Tucker Carlson Republican."
No idea what that means and it probably means nothing at all.

"I’m just saying we brought Japan and Germany to their knees…but we didn’t abandon them."
Yeah, really good example:
1) Iran is culturally opposed to Israel and the Jews, unlike Germany's and Japan's opinions of the Allies.
2) They were not abandoned (regardless of FDR's intent) as a result of the expansionist tendencies of the USSR and later the CCCP.
Analogies must retain some valid comparisons between the condition and the proposed analogue; are you here to prove how to misread history at every juncture? If not, you should probably STFU.

[Rev Arthur L kuckland (5-30-24 banana republic day)]

Why should anyone help iran?

[Marylandman, Battling for Truth Justice, and the American Way]

It isn’t easy, but it would likely lead to a less aggressive government that wouldn’t be a state sponsor of international terror.

[bye]

Yes, what we need is regime change from them and not from us

[Spiritus Mundi]

Next forever war? You mean the last forever wars ended? Man, I have lived through at least 2 forevers and survived so many dooms days, global warming, y2k, covid, etc. Starting to feel like Methuselah.

*But really war is bad, not our horse, not our rodeo. Stay the fuck home*

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

If we don’t have boots on the ground and defense spending is relatively low like now…just let senators do their jobs and you can ignore the wars and go about your life. We have senators for a reason.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

So you've been peddling bullshit the entire time. Told ya, lies like turd.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

I opposed Iraq from day 1. But I supported our initial operation in Afghanistan. I also supported our no-fly zone over Iraq and patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. I’m not anti military force…I’m anti conventional warfare when it’s unnecessary like in Iraq or against the Taliban once they signaled they would cut a deal with us in 2002.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

None of which affects the fact that you've been peddling non-historic bullshit here for hours in the hopes someone as ignorant as you might believe your bullshit.
Fuck off and die, shit stain.

[Vernon Depner]

Escalation is not inevitable if Israel and the US finish the job and exterminate the Iranian regime. Why doesn't anyone fight wars to WIN anymore?

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

There are existential wars where the winner is the combatant with a greater economic ability to win.
There are 'optional' wars where the effort is of limited interest to the population; the US in Vietnam, or England in the US revolution; those wars are lost to the 'spirit' of the opponent.
'Nother example: Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It is existential to Ukraine, the Russians wonder why Putin is pissing roubles away.
Pretty sure Israel sees this as existential as does Iran, but Iran is a medieval culture which can't even bring itself to accept the assistance of half of its population which wears rags on their heads and doesn't have a dick.
Got no money on the outcome, but...

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Didn’t you masturbate to videos of Saddam’s capture from his rathole?? W, The President!

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

Oh Em Gee, what an imbecilic response! WIH did Saddam's capture have to do with anything discussed so far?
Are you capable of understanding the requirement of analogy mentioned above, or just some slimy pile of TDS-addled shit? Oh, wait! We already know!
Please allow me to thank you for proving what a pathetic piece of TDS-addled slimy shit you are!
Fuck off and die, ass wipe.