Never Lock Down Again? Jay Bhattacharya vs. Sten Vermund
Stanford's Jay Bhattacharya debates Yale's Sten Vermund on COVID-19 lockdowns, focused protection, and the Great Barrington Declaration.

On November 15, Jay Bhattacharya and Sten Vermund debated the resolution, "Focused protection, as set forth in the Great Barrington Declaration, should be the general principle of public health management of highly infectious respiratory virus pandemics." The event was produced by The Soho Forum, a monthly debate series presented by Reason Foundation, the nonprofit that publishes Reason.
For the affirmative: Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute. His research focuses on the economics of health care around the world with a particular emphasis on the health and well-being of vulnerable populations. His peer-reviewed research has been published in economics, statistics, legal, medical, public health, and health policy journals. He holds an MD and Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University. Bhattacharya was one of three main co-signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration in October 2020.
For the negative: Sten Vermund is a professor of public health and pediatrics at the Yale School of Medicine. A pediatrician and infectious disease epidemiologist, he has focused on diseases of low- and middle-income countries. He has become increasingly engaged in health policy, particularly around the sustainability of HIV/AIDS programs and their expansion to noncommunicable diseases, COVID-19 pandemic response and prevention, and public health work force development. His recent grants include capacity-building for public health in Chad, molecular epidemiology for HIV in Kazakhstan, and COVID-19 vaccine studies in Dominican Republic and Connecticut. He has worked with schools and arts organizations for COVID-19 risk mitigation and institutional safety.
This was an Oxford-style debate, meaning the debater who changed more audience member minds won the debate. Bhattacharya started with 56.72 percent of the vote, while Vermund started with 7.46 percent. Bhattacharya ended with 81.34 percent of the vote, a 24.63 percent change. Vermund ended with 15.67 percent of the vote, an 8.21 percent change.
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Fuck Joe Biden
Fuck Joe Biden
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How the fuck is this even debatable at this point? It's clear that lockdowns did immensely more harm than they prevented, particularly to children and working class people and are a significant driver of current economic and social problems. We are going to continue suffering the consequences for years to come. I don't think it's possible to overstate how great an evil lockdown policies were. Beyond the practical consequences, it was pretty much the largest and most widespread assault on fundamental individual rights of my lifetime for sure.
I'm not sure that you can point to anything that the public policy makers did or attempted to do to mitigate the spread of covid that had any measurable effect at all, on preventing people from being exposed. Not from the federal level, not from the CDC or WHO, not from the state level, not from the local level.
While the lockdowns were by far the worst of the measures, from a liberty perspective, it's not like any of the other stupid shit they foisted upon us did any good whatsoever.
Right, I agree completely, it was all terrible. Lockdowns/ forced business closures/school closures were just the worst of it.
Not even China, who was boarding people up in their homes, has been able to stop it.
In fact, they're *still dealing with it* after the rest of the world has beat it.
China has more than triple our population, living densely, mostly in a dozen cities. Even in a good year, the country is a raging cesspool of infectious diseases.
With Covid, China has a potential disaster at hand. Between an overleveraged economy, a culture that discourages innovation, and the potential for simultaneous war and revolution, China cannot afford an unrestricted contagion.
One can’t blame authorities there for using all the tools available to prevent that, as ugly as that is.
"...One can’t blame authorities there for using all the tools available to prevent that, as ugly as that is..."
Yess, one can. Stay under your rock if it makes you feel safe.
Oh, we can blame them. They:
1) started the virus
2) lied about it, and still are
3) welded people's fucking doors closed to quarantine
4) are fucking communists
You and MTrue need to go back to China.
Welding doors shut pales in comparison to other options available to an authoritarian state.
Oh, they are such benevolent dictators.
Fuck them.
Not willing to negotiate with thugs.
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Uh, they're not *preventing anything at all*. Bricking people's doors and windows up so they can't leave still isn't doing anything.
Well, there were the mandates to be jabbed with experimental, grossly undertested, dangerous, experimental artificial mRNA “vaccines”. Most recently, it appears that many of the problems with the jabs are the result of the artificial nature of the mRNA, so far the replacement of Uridines by Pseudouridines causes it to evade the immune system, allowing the mRNA to last for months and travel through the body, and the high number of 4G sequences allows for significantly increased prion like foldings, with the resulting mental issues similar to Mad Cow Disease, along with other prion folding issues.
that was the point. They used the fake pandemic as an excuse to destroy your freedom
The fact that the worst of these tyrants, like Whitmer, just got a big vote of confidence from her victims instead of being dismembered in the public square is nothing short of astonishing to me. Reason gave a forum to Barrington, which I appreciate, but where the fuck were they 2 years ago? And why are they OK with the authoritarian despots in the Democrat party while publishing a dozen articles celebrating the fact that Trump endorsed "election deniers" lost to these assholes? Barrington was speaking truth to power two fucking years ago and were ignored by the Reason Institute. Now that the midterms are past and the authoritarians have prevailed they give a shit? For what. TDS? Fuck Reason and the institute that shit them out.
I'm still shocked by the whole thing. I knew people were easily led, but I didn't think it was this bad. I was sure that by late summer of 2020 people would have been done with it.
There is still a lady in our office building that is wearing one of those blue paper surgical masks every time I see her.
More terrifying than the government tyranny is the public acceptance. And the lack of pushback from "libertarians" . A lot of people invoke Orwell and Solzhenitsyn who aptly described the real world of tyranny and it's ultimate end. But in the 21st century their warnings have fallen on deaf ears. I grew up in the 20th century and the American culture was very much aware of the threats to liberty posed by authoritarian government. Our parents fought the hot war with Hitler and the cold war with Stalin. Orwell and Solzhenitsyn were on every high school reading list. People used to say things like hey it's a free country and I may not agree with you but you're entitled to your opinion. Every state has a town named Liberty, a word I rarely hear anymore. Individual liberty is dead in America. The constituency is a declining minority. Anyone claiming to be libertarian should have been screaming their heads off about the Covid lockdowns. But the Reason libertarians lectured us about testing and told us to go get the jab. A few tepid criticisms but never a full throated condemnation. The new libertarians tell us Ron Paul is an evil racist and celebrate the election of authoritarian governors, senators and reps only because they weren't endorsed by Trump. They worry that the Mises Caucus is a grave danger to a political party that barely exists. They ignore the fact that hundreds of people are being held without bail and sentenced to federal prison for parading. But I'm just an old man shouting at clouds.
I don’t think their states really are that dumb.
Every one of the tyrants happen to have been “elected” by just one or two dense, corrupt counties in which they directed the ruling political party.
Funny how that works.
No, it's dumb when you choose to re-elect a politician who has done more harm than good. Many people did that. That's not hard to learn.
Because Reason/CATO support all that shit
I am proud of my County Commissioners, who LOUDLY passed. resolution stating that any shut down order need not be enforced by the County Sheriff. That the Sheriff does not work for them is irrelevant. The audience was the school boards and businesses. Everything stayed open. Walmart's attempt to enforce masks lasted two weeks and they gave up. Liberty won, and we are just fine.
Policymakers who advocate for general lockdowns for any purpose should be forcibly quarantined from the rest of society.
For an airborne virus, maybe in a rubber room.
Can we at least get a special prosecutor for Fauci?
I thought people liked puppies. Why does he get a free pass to torture them?
He needs to answer for his crimes against humanity
Biden DOJ appoints a special prosecutor for Fauci? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! But Garland just appointed a special prosecutor to investigate Trump for insurrection. Priorities.
Plus investigating Republicans in Congress trying to investigate the DOJ and Dem House investigations of J6.
That won't happen now that the Ds control the senate. Some might even think the two are correlated.
How about a televised trial for Faucescu?
It would be like Nuremburg on Ice!
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Just the fact that anyone is arguing for lockdowns at this point makes me really angry.
I think my biggest disappointment about the election is that it now seems less likely that those who were responsible for terrible covid policies will be held to account for it. Not that I expected too much, but some emergency power reforms and serious look at CDC, NIH, FDA, etc. seemed possible. In my ideal world, they would all be tried and executed for crimes against humanity.
The fact that Gretchen Whitmere won re-election signals that no one will ever suffer any consequences for what happened. She governs a fairly purple state (or, more accurately, red plus Detroit), had some of the most draconian policies, which she flagrantly and repeatedly violated, while talking to and about her citizens are though they were petulant children. I remember, I think it was around spring break a year and a half ago, she gave very stern warning NOT to travel anywhere, ESPECIALLY NOT to Florida. It doesn't matter why; the safety of everyone is at stake. During that period, it was revealed that she and her family did in fact travel. To Florida. When confronted about it, she said that some family member (I think her father, maybe) was in poor health and it was really important for her to visit him.
She should have been ridden out of town just for that. Instead, they fucking re-elected her.
Same thing happened in Ohio—COVID Nazi Mike Dewine won re-election by a landslide. "Please, Governor, may we have another?"
It's really depressing. In NH where I live, Republicans did quite well in 2020, including a lot of liberty oriented free-stater types. But the establishment GOP blocked a lot of the reforms that they were pushing (some got through, which is good). This year, I don't know what happened. Everyone forgot about the past 3 years I guess. Or wants to move on. Or really cares about legal abortion. I don't know.
Now I just worry that everyone will move on without anyone held to account and the whole mess will happen again someday.
Prickster's family rode out the Illinois lockdown at their horse ranch in Florida.
The Covid measures were ineffective, but they were popular.
That's why they happened: they were popular. If they weren't popular, the politicians wouldn't have done them.
Essentially all the measures were political, because they were designed to do something impossible: stop the spread of a highly contagious respiratory illness. They were political in contrast to medical. People wanted to believe that it was possible, because they were scared about catching the illness.
Only a tiny minority of people is scientifically literate enough to judge on their own the efficacy of measures. Members of the general public would have made the same decisions as the governors.
The people with guns didn't give a shit if the measures were effective or popular they cared that they were obeyed.
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Off topic
Democrat Adam Frisch concedes to Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert in Colorado U.S. House race, according to media reports
I admit the longer the process takes the more convinced I am the Democrat will eventually win. This proves that's not always true.
Still embarrassing that an advanced country takes this long to count votes.
#MostSecureElectionYadaYada
Think perhaps it's a strategy? One House seat doesn't matter at this point, so let's show ultra-MAGA how gracious we are to concede a race. #democracy
The irony here is that (according to Boebert) that Frisch called to try to make her concede first.
What's the point in anyone conceding before the votes are counted? It's not like the concession means they can't win if that's what the votes add up to.
#MeToo!
for what its worth, I think two congressional races in AZ were called for republicans after an embarrassingly long amount of time to count the votes. At that was when house control was still not decided (I think).
There were 16 races still going at the start of the week. Gop was ahead in 9 of those.
The only picked up 3 extra. Dem leading areas didn't lose a single lead.
Republicans did very well at the state legislature level in Arizona. It was just the ones shit-smeared by Donnie's endorsement that voters rejected.
Whatever makes you feel better.
"It was just the ones shit-smeared by Donnie’s endorsement that voters rejected."
Stick your TDS up your ass along with your head, shitpile.
House races are much more difficult to f with than prez, senate, or governor which are cumulative statewide.
House races can be rigged the same way. There’s just not as much money to be made in doing so.
Never underestimate the effect that cheating (“walking around” money, payoffs to black preachers, ballot harvesting, etc) has.
It’s not about debates, speeches, lawn signs, and rallies. Giving money to corrupt operatives gets candidates elected.
Right now, the money is flowing to ensure the wins of national and gubernatorial Democrat candidates. Don’t be surprised if that shifts to house races, now that the Democrats are the House minority.
They tried their best. Found 2500 extra votes while curing.
lockdowns for how long?
5 minutes is too long.
In a ostensibly free society, lockdowns cannot be a thing for anyone who isn't incarcerated.
Even I, a liberty-loving, alt-right Trumpy lover of the Great Barrington Declaration could abide a lockdown that was limited in scope and went through a legislature if we were facing a disease with a 50% kill rate or something similar. But for fuck sakes...
Not even then. It has been demonstrated to be pointless .
I no longer trust anyone to do the right thing and I don't want to leave the door open at all. If something that dangerous happens, then people will lock themselves down. And we'd probably be fucked anyway. Things that aren't airborne contagious can be contained by less extreme means (e.g. ebola). If there was a respiratory infection that deadly it will either burn itself out fairly quickly like OG SARS, or decimate the population no matter what we do.
This right here. And at the beginning of the pandemic, when people didn't have much information but it looked dire, most people were voluntarily staying in. We didn't need mandates because people's desire to not die was motivation enough.
"I no longer trust anyone to do the right thing and I don’t want to leave the door open at all..."
It will be pushed open with a bulldozer if required to allow them to do what they did.
FON'T give 'em an inch.
I think our political leadership should have issued guidelines and requests. We can't have the executive branch creating criminal law out of thin air, so these orders would not be enforceable per se. They could have asked businesses to consider closing down if they posed special risks. Politicians are not known for making rational decisions or picking winners and losers. Politicians left the NYC subway running for weeks but threatened churchs with permanent (!) closure if they didn't OBEY.
Because I think most Americans actually care about the families, friends, neighbors, coworkers, and people in general, large numbers of them would happily have complied as best as they can. Those same folks often do not appreciate being given stupid orders and being threatened with jail (ironically, they could be put in jail for breaking COVID rules, but prisoners already in jail are being released to avoid COVID?). They do not OBEY, and especially chafe at being expected to OBEY people who ignore their own rules.
If we were facing a disease with a kill rate of 50%, people would be staying home on their own. Government would probably try to force us back to work at that point.
Government would probably try to force us back to work at that point.
Only those few of us who actually do necessary work. You know, we who worked all the way through the "lockdowns" last time because we were "essential".
I wonder how many of those people supporting lockdowns would feel if things were *really* locked down. Being able to run to the grocery store or Wal-Mart or picking up your favorite take-out…those are all ways and places where you can infect other or be infected, even if you're wearing a mask.
To have even a slight chance of being really effective, would mean *really locked down*: no grocery stores, no Wal-Mart, no fast-food drive-throughs, no pizza delivery, no Uber-Eats or Door-Dash or whatever. No Amazon or Target online. No home delivery. No jogging, visiting a park, etc. You’ll stay in your house or else–maybe we’ll allow you to wander around in your own backyard (backyard only), if you have one.
For food, what you’ll get is a government truck will deliver a box of food for one person to eat for a week, and drop off the boxes at your front doorstep based on the number of people in your household (hope you didn’t lie on the census form!). Each week, you will be told to line your household up at the door, one at a time, so they can be counted; this will inform the number of food boxes dropped off at your house. An armed escort will accompany the delivery person to ensure that no one opens their doors while the delivery person is within 20 feet of the door. Don't do that (open your door), because you could get shot.
The delivery personnel and their guards will be in full MOPP gear.
If someone in your house needs medical care, call 911 and an ambulance will be dispatched. People in full MOPP gear will pick up your sick loved one and take them away for treatment. If they live, you'll see them again.
The ONLY “essential” personnel will be those involved with treating COVID and for producing and delivering the food. These people will be issued uniforms and ID lanyards. So there’s no reason for anyone one else to ever venture outside of their house and anyone on the streets who is not in uniform obviously has no business being there, and will be subject to immediate detention in physical quarantine facilities.
Let them imagine a real lockdown for a few minutes then ask the question again. Bet the answer is different.
And then there's the notion that many of these orders simply made no sense. Like California, where you could walk on the beach, but not ride a bike. How is that rational with respect to COVID? You could swim or surf at the beach, but you could not sit quietly on the beach and read a book. How is that rational with respect to COVID? Like Michigan, where you could go to the Home Depot to buy a toilet repair kit, but could not buy tomato seeds for your garden while you were there. Or where you could go out in a row boat or canoe on MI waterway, but not in a motorboat. How are those rational with respect to COVID? In most places where you could go to the liquor store and stock up but could not go to a bookstore. How is that rational with respect to COVID? In Kansas and Tennessee (at least) where churchgoers were being arrested for sitting in their cars in the church parking lot listening to the sermon on their radios; the arresting officers were not wearing PPE and were in close physical contact with the churchgoers for extended periods of time. How is that rational with respect to COVID?
Off topic.
Twitter is about to get a lot more fun. The Babylon Bee just got reinstated.
Elon is a hero.
The World Health Organization, in stating that the “Declaration” was dangerous, refuted its own decades-long position that lockdowns would cause far more harm economically than any good they would do; and that lockdowns were ineffective at decreasing the death and morbidity rates, slow the spread, or protect healthcare infrastructure from overload during a pandemic. The moment the politicians panicked or decided to cynically make use of the “good crisis” for their own evil power-hungry ends, the WHO reversed position, condemning the “pandemic deniers” and were subsequently proven totally wrong in jumping onboard with the lockdowns. Follow the science, not the politicians and we’ll all be better off.
And keep science as far as possible from any politicians or political appointees.
The science or THE SCIENCE? Two very different things.
In this house we believe “science” should not be preceded by an article.
In this house we believe that anyone who says it without the article deserves applause.
In this house we believe that anyone who says with the article deserves the clap.
While I understand the sentiment, the science (with the article) is the collected results of science (without the article) and is perfectly correct in context. Buying into the narrative of the climate catastrophists by adopting their corruption of the English language is not only silly, it unwittingly concedes their position.
Sten Vermund is a professor of public health and pediatrics at the Yale School of Medicine.
Yeah, that's all I need to know.
They aren't all sheep at Yale. Look up Harvey Risch if you don't know who he is.
They really had to struggle to find an epidemiologist and public health expert to try to defend the politicians on this disaster and had to settle for an AIDS and tropical medicine expert who knows about as much as I do about airborne respiratory pandemic responses.
>>professor of public health
professor of nothing
There is no need to be derogatory. Vermund is an expert in AIDS and tropical medicine. I am board certified in Occupational Medicine which comes under the Board of Preventive Medicine. Public Health is a very real discipline and the science is excellent. Occupational Medicine specialists have been in the vanguard promoting evidence-based medicine - an effort to counter the long history of pseudo-science behind bad treatments and politically-based evidence. It's only when "scientists" stray outside of their field of expertise and into politics that the red flags should go up.
Democrats are too stupid to learn from Nov 8 but they should look at WA-3 where a neophyte nobody chick who loves guns and owns an auto repair shop upset MAGA military headcase Joe Kent in a R +11 district.
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Tell us again how you're not a Democrat?
I want both parties to have better candidates.
Liz Cheney is much better than Rashida Tlaib or AOC. The more independent the better.
Liz Cheney, the neocon!?! Are you out of your gourd? Liz Cheney can rot with Tlaib and AOC as far as I'm concerned. She's a part of the GOPe.
turd lies; do you expect otherwise?
So someone who isn't actually a Democrat ran under the D then.
For some decades, NY and NJ had enough Democrats caucusing with Republicans to maintain some legislative balance.
These career politicians use the duplicity to build cred as “common sense.”
Really, they’re just pigs at the trough, sticking with the majority Democrats to get better assignments, bigger offices, and larger stipends.
I must say, those people in the photo look absolutely deplorable!
Look, anyone debating lockdowns, like climate action, on the basis of scientific merits has completely missed the point. Our health betters, like our climate betters, care only about control. Total, ideological control. All the other stuff is just marketing.
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I like that Jay guy. He's a good actor. Especially was able to hold his own in Tropic Thunder alongside his costars.
Regardless of the principled stand regarding personal freedom and prevention of government over-reach, we have the utilitarian outcomes, showing states with severe lockdowns accomplished health outcomes marginally better than those with minimal lockdowns, and this data is damages as a result of Cuomo's lies regarding nursing-home deaths.
Regarding economic and educational outcomes, it's not even close: CA, with some of the worst lockdowns ended up in the bottom 6.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29928/w29928.pdf
They were in the bottom before Covid. If lockdowns did so much, they’d be dead last. But that’s just stats.
Clearly, the kids mostly suffered in ways that don’t show up in educational assessments. Delays in language skills, reversions in reading progress, fear of crowds, aversion to outdoor play, behavioral problems, abuse, missed healthcare and screenings, and more.
Uh, yes regarding education, not regarding econ. Greaseball Newsom (and in SF, mayor Breed) took care of that.
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment . . or the right of the people peaceably to assemble,
Yep.
Last time I checked, the Constitution does not have "except in pandemic" clauses. Not even "except in emergency" clauses. If a governor is allowed to tell a church that they have to shut down in a clear 1st Amendment violation, then the governor can ignore due process rights, or civil rights emanating from the 14th Amendment, or rights found in the penumbras of the BOR, like abortion rights (and on that one, where governors have suspended abortions as elective procedures under COVID closures, abortion-rights activists ran to court to file motions that are pretty much word-for-word the same as the church's proceedings). Or, more on point, a governor could declare that the media businesses (the press) are non-essential and cannot be allowed to operate. If you would argue that they cannot do those other things, then they similarly cannot be allowed to tell churches they cannot operate.
Several mayors and governors also have explicitly violated their state constitutions and their duly authorized state laws. Laws that, for example, expressly limit the duration of any declared state of emergency; laws that explicitly list the powers granted to the governor as a result of a declared emergency.
Remember when Trump declared an emergency then used his legally authorized powers to move money around to build the wall? Remember how everyone on the left screamed that he made up the emergency, that he abused the statute? Remember how the Supreme Court said basically that he followed the law as Congress wrote it? That was an "emergency" where the executive exercised powers expressly granted by the legislature. Whenever the executive has the power to declare an emergency and exert broad emergency powers, it's a situation ripe for abuse. Which is why most states clearly and expressly limit the power to declare emergency, to limit the duration of an emergency, and to limit the emergency powers.
Governors across the nation have simply ignored the laws. Sure, in the case of COVID, you might agree with the declaration and the ignoring of the laws. But I urge you to consider that those powers will belong to someone on the other team at some point and you will regret the precedent being set.
Bhattacharya is totally right but why do my child's education, health, and life depend on a debate by strangers?
Our stupid President said “Covid-19 is a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” while vaccinated people died in droves from Covid-19 and the unvaccinated were fired, banned from colleges, and denied organ transplants.
In the UK from February through August 2021, 62% of all Covid-19 Delta variant deaths were among the fully vaccinated. This amounts to a conclusive majority in a dataset with virtually every death included.
But any stupid "follow the science" guy who can give a whole speech decrying the OMNIcron (!! yes, he said that and only that) doesn't even know the meaning of the "OMNI"
South African doctor who discovered Omicron variant SLAMS pressure from countries to make the virus sound worse than it actually is
Dr Angelique Coetzee was one of the first scientists to discover Omicron strain
She said she's been attacked from scientists and politicians around the world
Dr Coetzee said she was told not to describe the Covid variant as 'mild'
Biden , the traitor in Afghanistan, is also the one that claimed that “Covid-19 is a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” while vaccinated people died in droves from Covid-19 and the unvaccinated were fired, banned from colleges, and denied organ transplants.