Did Libertarian Gary Johnson Totally Blow it in 2016? Or Will He Quintuple His Party's Best-Ever Finish?

And will he drag the LP across the 5 percent threshold on Election Day? Nick Gillespie, Katherine Mangu-Ward, and David Weigel talk it out.

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Did Libertarian Gary Johnson Totally Blow it in 2016? Or Will He Quintuple His Party's Best-Ever Finish?

As Election 2016 heads into its final few days, the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is tightening up and everyone is wondering what new Wikileaks emails or FBI bombshells we might wake up to

On the latest Reason podcast, Nick Gillespie talks with Reason magazine editor in chief Katherine Mangu-Ward and former Reason staffer David Weigel, now a political reporter for The Washington Post. In his latest piece from the campaign trail, Weigel asks, "Was 2016 a missed opportunity for Libertarians?" Weigel caught up with Gary Johnson in Utah, where the former governor of New Mexico told him,

"I think the Libertarian Party will grow by leaps and bounds…. It will be a game changer if I can hit 5 percent. Ten million bucks of public financing. No issues regarding ballot access. There are going to be a slew of new Libertarians, who are going to be former elected Democrats and Republicans."

Well maybe.

But as Weigel notes, 2016 has so far turned out to be a bigger year for the odious "alt-right" than for libertarians pushing for free trade and more immigration, at least when it comes to presidential politics.

In a fast-paced conversation covering all aspects of Johnson's campaign (including Libertarian vice-presidential candidate Bill Weld's "vouching" for Hillary Clinton), Gillespie, Mangu-Ward, and Weigel talk about the future of the GOP if Trump loses and predict whether Johnson will crack the 5 percent barrier (spoiler alert: Only one participant does).

Produced by Ian Keyser.

Listen on Souncloud by clicking below and scroll down to subscribe, rate, and review us at iTunes.

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Comments

[Crusty Juggler]

You blew it.

[IWasADemocrat]

^No qeustion

[You ARE a Prog (MJG)]

Capisce?

[MarkLastname]

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say it: Cop Land was a decent movie.

[Pan Zagloba]

But as Weigel notes, 2016 has so far turned out to be a bigger year for the odious "alt-right" than for libertarians pushing for free trade and more immigration, at least when it comes to presidential politics.

So, we have "odious" and "Weigel" in the same sentence, and yet you fail to arrange them correctly. Good job.

[straffinrun]

"so far..."

December is ours!

[Hyperion]

Not really. Our time is about 2 years down the road when we get to tell everyone how we told them their candidate would be an epic fucking disaster. And then the proletariat grab pitchforks and torches and march to the village to throw out all the establishment and replace them with Republicans who proclaim their total dedication to the Constitution and to Liberty. And then after 2 more years, the same champions of liberty have managed to throw off the mask and hand Hillary every fucking statist bullshit thing she's ever dreamed of. Basically, that's the only time we have, is the first 2 years after an election. After that it's back to more of the same. Then the LP puts up another clown who's even worse than the last clown. And the great leviathan that is the state continues unabated steamrolling all that is good and decent and the last vestiges of freedom are stamped out forever and ever. This is our story, be dismayed. The End.

[Palin's Buttplug]

Yes, I can see you holding your KEEP YOUR FILTHY GOVERNMENT HANDS OFF MY MEDICARE! sign along with your pitchfork.

[The Fusionist]

If you can't be bothered to follow posters' arguments, then don't assert so authoritatively what they mean.

[Ceci n'est pas un woodchipper]

I use Reasonable to block welchers.

[Hyperion]

I've been paying into medicare for decades, dumbshit. But I'll never use it. But I guess it's paying for your medicaid right now. So you should start taking your meds again. Before you freak out again, shreeky-poo. I feel a shreeky freakout coming on. Shreeky's freaking out man, he's freaking out!

[Playa Manhattan.]

Are you avoiding me, buddy? I just want to talk. No hanky panky, I promise!

[A Cynic's Guide to Zen]

Flogging the dog is unbecoming.

[Trigger Warning]

What about Flogging Molly?

[The Fusionist]

Well, look at Little Miss Sunshine over here!

[Hyperion]

I keep this mood going so that when the libertarian moment actually arrives, any minute now, I'll be totally ecstatic, like a little kid on Christman morning who finally got everything he ever wanted.

[Florida Hipster]

You'll shoot your eye out!

[Junior Juniorson, III]

You want people to listen to this thing?

On the latest Reason podcast, Nick Gillespie talks with Reason magazine editor in chief Katherine Mangu-Ward and a former Reason staffer David Weigel, now a political reporter for The Washington Post.

There ya go.

[SimonD]

Five percent is a pipedream. A more realistic goal is 2%, which is a step in the right direction. This whole election cycle seems to be an exercise in missed opportunities.

You have P.T. Barnum vs. the Wicked Witch, but Johnson didn't succeed in distinguishing himself even by those standards. Maybe the party SHOULD have nominated McAfee. At least he'd have attracted attention.

[Microaggressor]

There's no maybe about it. He would have been amazing.

[Joe M]

Johnson attracted a ton of attention. It just wasn't all good or opportune.

[anticollective]

Given usual election trends ("wasted vote syndrome") they will be lucky to break 1%.

[UCrawford]

A more realistic goal is 2%, which is a step in the right direction.

Yay...the LP got to 2% by running a candidate who abandons non-progressive libertarian positions. Maybe next time they should nominate a geriatric socialist from New Hampshire to really bring the voters in.

Gary Johnson might get 2% of the vote running on a weakly libertarian platform against a socialist, a criminal, and someone that a substantial portion of the population believes is a rapist and racist. His own running mate started shilling for the criminal. If the LP thinks that's a step in the right direction, they might as well just fold the tent now and stop wasting their supporters' time and money.

[ATXChappy]

"Did Libertarian Gary Johnson Totally Blow it in 2016? Or Will Quintuple His Party's Best-Ever Finish?"

It's both, they aren't mutually exclusive.

[Hyperion]

Yes, that is radio buttons, not checkboxes.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Hey, could someone who pays attention to this stuff more than I explain something they won't shut up about on the news:

Early voting.

It seems the democrats have turned "early voting" into the new "access" argument, where no longer is "getting out the vote" key to a Democratic victory, but now "early voting" will stem the Republican juggernaut.

Why? What's magic about "early voting"? Do I get 10% extra vote bonus for every day I vote early or something?

[SimonD]

I think it's more that "we can bus Jimmy and his 50 friends to 15 different polling places with faked documentation now instead of only five".

[GILMORE?]

I think it's more that "we can bus Jimmy and his 50 friends to 15 different polling places with faked documentation now instead of only five".

more or less. just 'more time' to do the same stuff they already do.

if they could, they'd spread it out over a week so they could identify places they're losing, and then "fix" them.

[Dark Lord of the cis]

Yep, vote early, vote often.

[Hyperion]

If you start voting early, you can vote more times. It works like this:

Democrat operative 1: 'Hey, Pedro, here's where you vote and here's how you vote. Now is 15 days before the election. You start doing this today and you go back each day until they close the doors and Hillary wins. This is how it works, it's totally legit, don't worry. See how easy that is, Si?'.

[Pan Zagloba]

Remember people bitching about already having voted for GJ/Weld? Same thing. Get them before the scaffolding of Herself's campaign collapses under the weight of scandals.

I mean, it might not collapse. But why risk it?

[Hyperion]

Basically, Hillary has about 5 days to stop the downhill slide, or she's fucked. As it is right now, I would say she pulls out a last minute squeaker by winning PA, although Trump wins FL and OH. Popular vote a million or so vote win for Hillary by 2 million or less votes. That is IF she can stop the free fall. If not, Trump wins even without PA by winning AZ, NV, NC, CO, OH, and FL.

[Pan Zagloba]

I checked Ladbrokes again.

Last week, it was 1/5 for Clinton, 4/1 Trump.

Monday, it was 2/5 Clinton, 2/1 Trump.
Today is 4/9 Clinton, 7/4 Trump.

Now this is just a betting site. But that is a surge of late money into Trump.

[Hyperion]

Sounds like they've been following the polls also. Keep in mind, I'm not making my prediction based on the known fact that some polls are oversampling democrats.

[Hyperion]

Adding to that, I'm also not factoring in the fact that Democrat enthusiasm and minority voters turnout is down and Republican enthusiasm and turnout are way up so far. If factoring in all of that, I would guess Trump is actually up right now by what the polls are showing Clinton is up, or about 2%, but it could be higher. I've predicted the last 4 right, but this one is so close I can't call it. I don't think anyone knows.

[Palin's Buttplug]

The Trump late "surge" is real. The stock market is selling off every day out of fear the idiot Con Man is elected.

[kbolino]

the idiot Con Man

... doesn't really narrow it down

[MarkLastname]

As I understand one of them as a penus and the other doesn't. I'm not sure which is which.

[Hyperion]

Trump's ideas on trade are just completely unrealistic. Especially the derp about bringing back American mfg jobs. Those jobs are never coming back. They stay in other countries where cost is lower or they get automated. Either way, they're never coming back. But I'm not speculating on that, only who has the momentum right now, which is clearly Trump. Yes, it's real. Will it last another 5 days? Who knows.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

The stock market is selling off every day out of fear the idiot Con Man is elected.

[MarkLastname]

Actually, the investment news (aggregated by Apple, admittedly well-known as a right wing company), the stock market's current tumble is mainly being attributed to fluctuations in the British pound.

[anticollective]

Even if she does win, she will likely be under indictment or too sick to continue within months.

[Hyperion]

Tim Kaine as potus, with Billy Clinton hanging on as first dude. My gawd man. It's like the Beverly Hillbillies, only in Washington. Is this real? We must be living in a simulation. And the programmer is one sick fucker.

[Sevo]

"Why? What's magic about "early voting"? Do I get 10% extra vote bonus for every day I vote early or something?"

They're just hoping to get those votes in before Clinton gets caught selling the capital building to Mugabe.

[Hyperion]

"Did Libertarian Gary Johnson Totally Blow it in 2016?" YES

Or Will Quintuple His Party's Best-Ever Finish?" NO

Ok, what is the parties best ever finish? 1%?

[hpearce]

He did blow it because he never did anything other than the typical expected politician does to go on talk shows, etc while hoping for voters to respond to that

He also showed he is nowhere near a true libertarians which I blame also on those idiots at the convention for selecting him

[Palin's Buttplug]

They should paint a big "L" on the true libertarian at the convention so everyone can tell which one it is.

[Hyperion]

Obviously, it's you shreek, the only true libertarian.

[Microaggressor]

People might mistakenly think it means "Loser", but for him, it would still be accurate.

[AddictionMyth]

Funny I don't recall doing this interview. Dam pups, they'll get away from ya.

Jill Stein approves this message.

[Hyperion]

I see you've outed yourself as having at least 2 socks here, shreek. Where is your racist one today? I can't remember, I think it starts with a D.

[Palin's Buttplug]

If I want to post something racist I can do it myself. The last time I was accused of racism was for calling Clarence Thomas "the affirmative action justice".

[kbolino]

And yet, you have the gall to label other people deplorable.

[Sevo]

"If I want to post something racist I can do it myself"

No need to repeat yourself, turd.

[Palin's Buttplug]

I don't do PC. If you're an affirmative action beneficiary you probably should just shut up about it.

[kbolino]

Wait, I thought the problem with Clarence Thomas was that he didn't talk enough? Now the problem is that he talks too much?

Jesus Christ, what the fuck is wrong with you?

[Hyperion]

Cognitive dissonance. For progs, this is a feature, not bug.

[Ceci n'est pas un woodchipper]

It's their superpower.

[MarkLastname]

So, Obama and Hillary Clinton should just shut about it? I agree completely.

[GILMORE?]

Do they discuss how Nick was unable to convince a roomful of libertarians how he was right and Walter Block was wrong?

and will that debate ever be archived anywhere?

[Wizard with a Woodchipper]

burn.

[Pan Zagloba]

What was the end result? Was it at least less embarrassing than Mark Steyn and Nigel Farrage's 22% swing on Toronto audience re: immigration?

[Microaggressor]

I missed that. Was it good?

[Pan Zagloba]

Ah, looks like audio is up now at http://reason.com/blog/2016/11.....pie-debate

I skipped to results. Nick picked up 4%, Block 8%. Could have been worse, really.

[GILMORE?]

Could have been worse, really.

The audience could have concluded they should vote for Hillary?

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Jill Stein.

[Pan Zagloba]

Jacket could have risen and consumed the audience.

Or more seriously, Nick could have actually decreased the "No" vote percentage after he was done. See the above Steyn/Farrage example of how NOT debating would have probably been better (77% to 55%).

[Libertymike]

The jacket could not be Walter Block in debate even if Block argued in favor of Pol Pot having been better for liberty than Lysander Spooner.

[JEP]

I like Gary, but yeah I think he blew it. He's the personification of a limp, clamming handshake. He does not speak well off the cuff and his "outrage" is laughable.

[Palin's Buttplug]

The LP needs a loudmouth always-wrong idiot like Trump then?

Actually, that might work well.

[JEP]

Yes, there are only two options.

[Hyperion]

It's a proggie sock, AKA just another version of Tony. So yeah. George Boosh BAD, Hillary GOOD, cuz team! Bloop Boink Blop Derp!

[Palin's Buttplug]

And you are John's half-wit conservative twin brother.

[Playa Manhattan.]

I know you can see me. Just a little hello, so that I know you're OK?

[Palin's Buttplug]

Yes, I saw your obscure biotech shot up 20% the other day on 45,000 shares traded. Don't worry, I'll be around for the election.

I look forward to the mass disappointment here.

[Playa Manhattan.]

Just 20% in one day?

How did it do the rest of this year?

[Florida Hipster]

20%? Congratulations on your profits.

[Florida Hipster]

Which stock is it?

[Playa Manhattan.]

CLVLY. More to come. Likely FDA approval in mid 2017. Fast track and orphan drug designation.

[MarkLastname]

That's a hood strategy these days, orphan drugs let the company skip a lot of the FDA red tape of designing new ones.

Honestly, it disturbs me to think about how many drugs and devices have gone uninvented and unmarketed because of how much the FDA strangles the market. Not even talking about abolishing it; why is it not a first tier issue among all the progs who ostensibly care so much about health care that it takes almost 20 fucking years to get a pharmaceutical from the bench to the clinic? (And not just pharmaceuticals; medical devices, even algorithms for treatment design too)

[Sevo]

"I look forward to the mass disappointment here."

SIV and two others ain't "mass", turd.

[Sevo]

Your chances of ever collecting from turd? When unicorns roam the fields.
Remember, this is the guy, who, when he walks in the door, everybody takes their cash off the bar. "Slimy" is a compliment.

[Hyperion]

No, John is clearly more of a small L libertarian than I am. But he's still libertarian on most issues. You OTOH, shreek, are a proggie asshole. Maybe you're saying I'm a conservative because I haven't went Dalmia level open border shit. Or maybe you're just an asshole. Yes, I'm sure it's the latter.

[DOOMco]

John gladly admits where he disagrees with libertarian thought. You guys can at least articulate a position and discuss it with others.

[Microaggressor]

No, just McAfee.

[John Titor]

The LP needs a loudmouth always-wrong idiot

Well unfortunately Buttplug you polled rather low.

[Half-Virtue, Half-Vice]

Did Gary Johnson totally Blow it?

I'd say it was more of an utter implosion.

[__Warren__]

His campaign bus has a broken weld. Now it steers to the left.

[Microaggressor]

Heh.

[DOOMco]

Nicely done, collect your winnings at the door

[Palin's Buttplug]

As I've said many times, the LP needs Ayn Rand loving Mark Cuban at the top of the ticket. Trump wouldn't even grant him an interview for $5 million out of fear.

(I know he is not TEAM RED! enough for many here)

[Libertymike]

In interviews, Mark is not always the most mellifluous of mavericks. Of course, he is better able to put subject to predicate to object than Obama.

[Palin's Buttplug]

Gary should have come up with a catchy campaign slogan. Something like GRAB EM BY THE PUSSY!

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

If the email don't fit, you gotta acquit!

[Sevo]

Hey, Mike! What did the Kocks say when you went whining to them with the screen shots?

[Sevo]

OT:
Remember that, nationwide, 0.67% of new car registrations are electric vehicles and I wonder if that included golf carts.
No matter. Our dear leaders are going to make sure that you can get cross country in one, so long as you're willing to park for 8 hours every 100 miles or so:

"EV road trips made EZ: Feds plan cross-country charging corridors"
[...]
"On Thursday, the White House announced an initiative to build 48 charging corridors across 35 states and the District of Columbia."
http://www.sfgate.com/business.....591987.php

Prediction: Solyndra's gonna look like the good old days.

[Libertymike]

OT: Yes, I was rooting for the Cubs. You mentioned you had a friend who is a big Cubs fan? I trust he is happy.

Wouldn't you know it, today I have heard several parochial, miserable Red Sox fans who are pissed off because they think the Cubs' fans did not suffer the way Red Sox fans did.

[Sevo]

I'll see him tomorrow; yeah, I'm sure he's smilin'.

[Libertymike]

Tell him that there are some crazy libertarians here in New England who are smilin' as well.

[DOOMco]

Great. Glad our money is being used wisely.

[Playa Manhattan.]

Heard on the radio yesterday morning:

"LAPD is pursing a stolen vehicle in Van Nuys, but it appears to be electric, so it should be over soon."

[Sevo]

An article in the Chron several weeks back had a guy buying a Leaf somewhere in the LA basin and having to have it towed home, since the batteries on that thing wouldn't get him home.

[Playa Manhattan.]

But the tow truck was battery powered too, right?

[MarkLastname]

Well, the radio was, at least.

[straffinrun]

Do you your laundry. There are socks all over the place.

[JeremyR]

As terrible a candidate Johnson is, he never even tried promoting libertarianism.

Just the aspects of it that agreed with the Bernie voters.

[John Titor]

But as Weigel notes, 2016 has so far turned out to be a bigger year for the odious "alt-right" than for libertarians pushing for free trade and more immigration, at least when it comes to presidential politics.

And of course, the general hackishness, incompetence, and inability to articulate positions of our predominant libertarian cultural representatives in this election cycle have nothing to do with that.

*Glares at Gillespie*

[robc]

Has Weigel paid his bet yet?

[Playa Manhattan.]

NO

[Juice]

"I think the Libertarian Party will grow by leaps and bounds.... It will be a game changer if I can hit 5 percent. Ten million bucks of public financing. No issues regarding ballot access. There are going to be a slew of new Libertarians, who are going to be former elected Democrats and Republicans."

So the Libertarian Party is hoping for a handout from the government? So typical.

[CE]

Harry Browne would have turned it down.

[Juice]

And Johnson blew it. Hard. He took this golden opportunity and squandered it by being a doofus and by taking on Weld. But really though, the Weld thing could have been handled by someone who isn't a nitwit.

[josh]

Both can be true, but the important takeaway is he blew it.

[janelltmayfield]

I've made $64,000 so far this year working online and I'm a full time student. Im using an online business opportunity I heard about and I've made such great money. It's really user friendly and I'm just so happy that I found out about it. Heres what I do,

??????? http://YoutubeJobs.Nypost55.com

[Sanjuro Tsubaki]

Will anyone listen to Nick Gillespie after this election's over?

[ken.]

the libertarian party keeps blowing their opportunities by nominating the worst candidates. they always come off as clueless nut jobs. yes the people are sick of the war on drugs scam and want legalization, but the people are not pro-drug use. the candidates are always pushing use instead of legalization with prevention education. AND the open immigration plan is by far the worst policy of all, a country has to take care of it's own citizens first or it's no longer a country.

[tlapp]

Johnson is a good man but doesn't have enough charisma which unfortunately is needed. He made a huge mistake with Weld, not much Libertarian about Weld. 5% would be a great number but if he falls slightly short it still is enough to make both parties notice. That is enough to sway many elections. Now the challenge is to sway people to believe they should not be limited to 2 choices.

[CE]

Quadruple baby. 4 million votes.

[The Fusionist]

Leave Gary alone!

[kbolino]

If you have all the answers on what the voters really want, then why don't you run for President?

[Crusty Juggler]

(Giggles)

[Playa Manhattan.]

I'm getting a drink. Be right back.

[Pan Zagloba]

The failure of the century

Actually, that is pretty good description of Weigel.

[DOOMco]

Yeah, at least the paulistas have an economic plan!!

[Michae| Hihn]

Wait a second you guys. I took some meds and I just realized that I just denounced the very campaign that I've spit-flecked my keyboard on numerous occasions defending but it's okay and I'm not insane or anything because its still Ron Paul and his goober followings fault that Johnson/Weld ran a terrible campaign. It has nothing to do with the fact that Johnson/Weld based their entire campaign around virtue signaling the left and were politically inept in general.....it was always the paulista's I tell ya!!!!

[Hyperion]

And you're coming back to a hinfected thread with a bad case of the sheektards. Yes, a drink sounds good. *heads for fridge*

[Pan Zagloba]

See, invite Weigel, infest thread. God dammit, Reason, how hard is it not to invite Weigel?

[DOOMco]

This. The earlier the votes, the less October surprises matter.

[MarkLastname]

Also, it's possible they think that if exit polls from early voting suggest they're outperforming the polls then it will boost confidence for November 8.

[Swiss Servator]

BULLY!

[MarkLastname]

"Let government continue as it is," they sneer.
No, they want government reformed (in the negative direction). You're the one who seems to just want to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic. Something tells be 'reform' to you is a synonym of 'expand.' I don't think I've ever actually seen you express an opinion on an actual apology. All you do is naysay people who criticize Obamacare or whatever.

By the way, I saw your heartfelt apology on the other thread, and your full-throated endorsement of Ron Paul. It was quite touching. I knew you'd come aground eventually.

[MarkLastname]

It's ok Mike, we forgive you. By the way, why don't you tell us what you really think about the Pauls? I'll just ignore this other phony above, clearly just some jealous sock puppet.

Also, do you ever plant to run again as the libertarian candidate for your old position as Deputy Dogcatcher for Chickenfucker County, Kansas?