Republicans held the Senate! Democrats took the House but by a narrower margin!
Did I just embarrass myself?
I write this Election Day morning, before most polling places even opened. I don't know the actual results, of course.
But I'll pretend I do because I trust the betting odds.
As of Tuesday morning, ElectionBettingOdds.com, a site I co-founded, says Republicans have an 84 percent chance to hold the Senate and Democrats a 71 percent chance to retake the House.
Why trust a bunch of gamblers? Because they have the best track record!
Polls have flaws. Some people lie to pollsters or just give them what they think is the "proper" answer. Others won't even talk to them.
Pundits are worse. They often let their personal preferences skew their predictions.
Bettors are more accurate because of something called the "wisdom of crowds." It turns out that an average of many people's estimates is usually more accurate than any one person's views.
Researchers noticed that while watching the TV series Who Wants to Be a Millionaire. Stumped contestants could poll the audience or call a friend.
The friends, often experts of some kind, got answers right 65 percent of the time. The studio audience included few experts, but the crowd got the answer right 91 percent of the time.
The crowd that bets on elections online (political betting is legal in Europe and at a small American futures market called PredictIt.com) works hard to get the answers right.
They look at more than polls. They factor in the latest news, try to sense the mood on the ground, and research candidates' campaign tactics.
They try harder than pundits because their own money is on the line. You've met blowhards who confidently predict things until someone says, "Want to bet?" Then they shut up. People who put their money where their mouths are become more careful.
Prediction markets, or futures markets, are not new. Stock markets are prediction markets where people bet on companies' future earnings. A hundred years ago, "More money was traded in election markets than in stock markets," says economist Robin Hanson.
Then, unfortunately, governments in America banned most betting. That deprived Americans of one of the best predictors of future events.
There were a few exceptions. Fifteen years ago, U.S. officials asked Hanson to create a betting market that might predict future problems.
"The Department of Defense heard prediction markets were interesting, doing powerful things," says Hanson. "They said, 'Show us it works for stuff we do... (P)redict events in the Middle East.'"