CIA Analyst Martin Gurri on Trump, Chaos, and Optimism
In a post–2024 election conversation, Gurri discussed his vote for Donald Trump and why he is cautiously optimistic about the next four years.
Martin Gurri is a former CIA analyst and author of The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium. He is known for his incisive analysis of how social media disrupt traditional power structures. In a post–2024 election conversation at the Reason Speakeasy in New York City, Gurri sat down with Nick Gillespie and discussed his vote for Donald Trump and why he is cautiously optimistic about the next four years.
Q: Before the election, you wrote a piece saying, "I didn't vote in the previous two presidential elections, but I'm voting for Trump this time." The dividing line, you said, was that the Democrats and Kamala Harris were the party of control. What did you mean by that?
A: We've had a set of institutions run by a special kind of person, and the Democratic Party is their political embodiment, and they are not so much ideological as they are entitled. They want to be in charge. They think they have a mission.
Q: You called them agents of control, and you said the Republican Party and Trump are agents of chaos. A lot of people would say Trump, or Republican governors, want to control women's ability to get abortions and want to dictate what does and doesn't get taught in public schools. How are they chaotic rather than controlling?
A: I think every political entity, to some degree, wants to manage and control a certain set of social and political decisions, but I think there's no comparison between the two sides.
Trump—who the heck knows what he believes in? Wherever he is, chaos follows. Whether it's intentional or unintentional. I think it's intentional. He runs on attention. If you read his book The Art of the Deal, he says it.
Q: And if you've read his book, you've done more than he has, because he certainly didn't write it, and he certainly didn't read it.
A: No, he did not write it. But it's his voice. He dictated to a very good ghostwriter who captured the rambly style. He draws attention by sowing chaos, conflict. There is no better way to get attention than to start conflict, make a noise, break something. He lives to be the man that all the eyes are turned toward. I don't believe chaos is control. I think nothing this exciting has happened in Washington since the War of 1812. This is like the dread pirate Trump has just landed with his buccaneers, and he's going to start breaking stuff.
Q: Trump said he was going to drain the swamp last time, but that didn't happen. Why is it different this time?
A: The first time, I don't think he wanted to win. I am also sure that when he won, he had no clue what was going to happen next. Essentially, he hired a gigantic set of swampers. Every one of those people now is on the other side.
In 2024, he stands on the verge of this potentially huge cultural shift, and he has these people around him that all they have in common is they are dissidents. They're people who have been cast out and excommunicated by the establishment.
Q: The richest man in the world, a billionaire, a second-term president, the scion of a political dynasty—how are these people dissidents? How are they not establishment figures?
A: They were part of the establishment at one point, said things that tread on establishment sensibilities, and got cast out. They got excommunicated.
Q: Are you optimistic?
A: I always say that I am short-term pessimistic, long-term optimistic—certainly about the United States. Coming from Cuba, I can tell you the American people are fundamentally sensible and sound. I have faith that democracy—which is very important to me—it's going to be carried forward. I'm not certain, and it's not something we should just let happen. We should all work to see that it does, but I think it will happen because I trust the American people.
This interview has been condensed and edited for style and clarity.
