Gary Johnson

4 Other Reasons to Be Bullish on Gary Johnson's Polling

Beyond drawing nearly 10%, the Libertarian is disproportionally attracting independents and Millennials, despite low name recognition

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Add a zero to that bad boy! ||| Reason
Reason

The headline interest in the Libertarian Party's prospects this November were tidily summed up by FiveThirtyEight three weeks ago: "Pay Attention To Libertarian Gary Johnson; He's Pulling 10 Percent vs. Trump And Clinton." That number has settled to about 9 percent nationwide since, but the basic set-up remains the same: Johnson is polling around four times higher than he was at this time in 2012, in a Black Swan political year featuring historically loathed and remarkably statist major-party candidates. It's an unprecedented opportunity for limited-government politics and argument.

And those aren't the only reasons for Libertarian (and libertarian) optimism lurking within these recent polls. Here are four more:

1) Pollsters are actually including Gary Johnson. Five of the seven national presidential election polls (as gathered by the ever-useful RealClearPolitics) since the Libertarian National Convention last month have also included Johnson. (He has averaged 10 percent in those.) The surveys that excluded Johnson, in case you want to send a candygram, were Rasmussen Reports and Economist/YouGov.

From the moment he sewed up the L.P. nomination, Johnson pivoted to one major message: include me in the polls. That's not as straightforward as you might expect—before the major-party conventions in 2012, for example, Johnson was also included in a total of five national polls, but only across five months, not two weeks. (He averaged slightly less than five percent in those.)

Ten percent is within shouting distance of 15 percent, which is the ticket to nationally televised presidential debates. It's also a nice round number that generates attention and headlines, in theory helping to inch those results still higher. If Johnson is being included in three-quarters of the national surveys and averaging double-digits in those, it's going to be awfully hard for polling companies to exclude him.

2) Johnson is competitive among the largest and fastest-growing political bloc: independents. The Libertarian candidate's single most shocking poll result thus far was a June 5-8 Fox News survey that found him edging out Hillary Clinton among independents, 23 percent to 22 percent (Donald Trump topped both, with 32 percent).

Johnson beating Clinton among independents is an outlier, but his overall competitiveness among that bloc is not. The former New Mexico governor averages twice as much support among non-Democrats/Republicans as he does overall.

Here's a quick snapshot in reverse chronological order of how the three leading presidential candidates are doing among independents. In the parentheses are the polls' universe of independents compared to Democrats and Republicans:

HC 24% DT 24% GJ 12%, Reuters/Ipsos June 11-15 (Dem/Rep/Ind 44%/34%/13%)

HC 30% DT 29% GJ 17%, CBS News June 9-13 (D/R/I 35%/29%/36%)

DT 30% HC 23% GJ 16%, Guardian/SurveyUSA June 8 (D/R/I 33%/26%/38%)

DT 32% GJ 23% HC 22%, Fox News June 5-8 (D/R/I 41%/35%/20%)

DT 33% HC 27% GJ 19%, IBD/TIPP May 31-June 5 (D/R/I 35%/31%/33%)

DT 36% HC 29% GJ 10%, Quinnipiac May 24-30, (D/R/I 35%/29%/26%)

For going on three decades, Gallup has been asking voters whether they consider themselves to be Democrats, Republicans, or independents. The latter category has held the top slot every month since December 2012, and every year since 2008. Independents were 33 percent of the electorate in 1988; 45 percent last month.

Independents are not automatically libertarians, but libertarians are more likely to appear among their ranks, and are far more likely to be independent themselves. More importantly, even those majority of independents who otherwise adhere predictably to one of the two main political groupings are still more open to ideas and politicians outside their tribe. Their disloyalty, combined with the shrinking popularity of party affiliation and America's ongoing calamity of misgovernance, make our political moment continuously dynamic and unpredictable.  

When Gary Johnson and the L.P. do disproportionately well among a growing and dynamic political bloc, that softens the ground for more libertarian argumentation across the political spectrum. Particularly among the most unaffiliated demographic of them all, Millennials.

3) The Libertarian message is doing best among Snake People Millennials. In every presidential poll with an age breakdown conducted since the Libertarian National Convention, Gary Johnson has performed better among 18-to-34-year-olds than any other age group, usually by a lot.

Here is a list of how the three candidates are faring among Millennials, followed in parentheses by Johnson's overall support, and his second-most popular demographic:

HC 41% DT 27% GJ 10%, Guardian/SurveyUSA (6% overall, 6% for ages 50-64)

HC 38% DT 29% GJ 18%, Fox News (12% overall, 12% 35-54)

HC 29% DT 28% GJ 24% (ages 18-24), IBD/TIPP (11% overall, 16% 25-54)

HC 40% DT 28% GJ 8%, Quinnipiac (5% overall, 8% 35-49)

Many dreams have crashed on the rocky shores of Millennial political affection, but Gary Johnson certainly believes there's some there there, and he's joined in this analysis by pollster John Zogby, at the end of last month argued that "the Libertarians could have a breakthrough year," due to their potentially "very special appeal to Millennials." From Zogby's analysis:

They will decide the outcome in 2016. Donald Trump's support is miniscule among this group and Clinton does not generate any enthusiasm among younger voters because she appears to many to be a combination of too establishment and too disingenuous….To be sure, many will hold their nose and vote for Clinton because of their fear of a Trump victory. But the real question is will there be enough excitement to get Millennials out to vote. While early reports on the Libertarian ticket of former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson and former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld suggest that they may draw votes away from Trump, I think they may actually hurt Clinton even more. […]

Johnson and Weld just may have the most compelling message for Millennials. They are running as fiscal conservative purists and can draw from a group that is deeply concerned about both college debt and unparalleled public debt. And they are social libertarians: pro-choice, anti-government meddling in matters of personal privacy, decriminalization of most drugs, and they oppose United States meddling in foreign adventures and war. These young people are America's First Global generation and they are diverse and less inclined to see other peoples and cultures as the "other."

While this radiates more optimism than even I am willing to muster, it is worth noting that early polling does show Johnson to be pulling evenly from Clinton and Trump. Now just imagine if anyone actually knew who he was!

4) Nobody knows who Gary Johnson is, but they're willing to learn. The recent Bloomberg poll asked people to answer three questions about the candidates who were not their first choice: Could you ever support them, would you never support them, or are you not sure?

Only 6 percent of non-Hillary voters said that they could ever support her, and only 7 percent of non-Trumpites said they could conceive of Team Orange. Johnson? A full 22 percent of respondents imagined that they could vote for him, and a further 25 percent said they were not sure (compared to just 2 percent and 1 percent for Clinton and Trump, respectively). The Quinnipiac poll found that 83 percent didn't know enough about Johnson to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the man.

So will that change? CNN is hosting a townhall meet-the-Libertarians broadcast next week for Johnson and William Weld. Soon, millions of Americans will be in position to get to know the Libertarian ticket. It will be fascinating to see what they think.

NEXT: Television Offers a Summer Crime Wave

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  1. In those polls which allowed me to follow links, the candidates mentioned to the voter were Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein, and one of the polls left off stein.

    I didn’t see the link to the Fox poll.

    Of the polls I looked at, in other words, the option of Darrell Castle, the Constitution Party nominee, was not presented.

    Presumably because he and Johnson are basically the same, I imagine. /sarc

    1. Seriously, why not give respondents a choice among Hillary, Trump, Johnson, Stein, Castle, None of the Above, or Not Voting?

      1. Perhaps they limit it to people who could theoretically win. I don’t think the Constitution party in on the ballot in enough states.

        1. Here is the status of the Constitution Party’s ballot access drive.

          Here is the status of the Green ballot access drive.

          Based on these two situations, what makes Stein, but not Castle, worthy of being included in the polling?

          1. The Green Party sites timed out before I could link to their ballot-access maps.

          2. Stein is a Greenie, and thus acceptable in the Church of the Holy State. Sure, she’s from one of the more snake-handling, speaking-in-tongues sects, but not a heretic.

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          3. I don’t know. I was just taking a guess.

            It could also be that the Greens have had better results in teh past that the Constitutions.

            Or (just for you Eddie) ABORTION.

          4. Alright, so doing math, based on your links:

            HAS BALLOT ACCESS:
            Stein: 22
            Castle: 18

            CURRENTLY PETITIONING FOR ACCESS:
            Stein: 25
            Castle: 23

            EXPECT TO PETITION IN THE FUTURE:
            Stein: 3
            Castle: 9

            ARE OFFICIALLY OFF THE BALLOT:
            Stein: 0
            Castle: 2

            So… Stein clearly has more access based on what you linked. Not sure what your point was, unless you missed the part of Stein’s article where she stated she has access in 22 states already??

            1. And I clearly miscounted Castles map, sorry. CURRENTLY PETITIONING FOR ACCESS-Castle should be 21

              1. So this is the difference between being in the polls and not being in the polls?

                Those differences don’t see all that huge.

                1. Don’t *seem* all that huge.

                  1. Let’s put it this way, in 2012, three candidates each had ballot access in a majority of the states – these candidates were the candidates of the Libertarian, Green and Constitution parties.

                    1. (and if I wanted to be picky, if you counted states where the candidate can get written in, you’d have more candidates with a majority of states. And what’s wrong with relying on voters’ ability to write someone’s name?)

                    2. Based on the last few elections i’m not sure I’d assume voters are literate enough to write in a name on a ballot. I think that’s a master’s level course in the modern American education system. You get to trade the crayons in for a pen when you get a phd.

                      If Johnson gets more exposure the percentage will drop. “Libertarian sounds cool.” “Oh wait, open borders? Seeya!”

      2. Why are you leaving out Vermin Supreme? He has a serious platform, he’s giving out free ponies to every American. I mean, that’s just about as serious as the rest of them.

        1. Don’t forget mandatory tooth-brushing.

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  2. (cue “a bull’s johnson” references)

  3. “Beyond drawing nearly 10%, the Libertarian is disproportionally attracting independents and Millennials, despite low name recognition”

    or.. because low name recognition..as he has said.. mickey mouse would probably do as well given the crazy that makes up the other nominees

    1. That’s the hipster vote. “I’m voting for this guy Johnson, but because you’ve probably never heard of him.”

      1. Dude, I like put mustard on my fries and I only wear clothes made from organic banana leaves, I know where it’s at, man. Did the chicken have a name?

        1. Honey mustard is actually great for fries.

          1. Indeed. Honey mustard is fantastic on a lot of foods.

            1. Especially on Eustace, the chicken.

  4. GayJay doesn’t have a chance in Hell(which is literally where this election cycle seems to come from). Hope he knows how to bake cake after this.
    #SMOD2016

    1. Do governors get pensions?

      1. As far as I know. I can’t imagine NM is an exception.

        1. Well, I guess Gary will not have to bake any cakes. Unless he wants to, you know, bake a big fat ganja cake.

  5. Keep in mind here, Bernie supporters still think they are going to win and they have a lot of votes. Yes, there are that many totally clueless people. Hello, Berniebots, Venezuela? No, you don’t get it? That’s what I thought.

    Anyway, after the Democrat convention, things will change a lot, I suspect. How, I don’t know, but all of the Berniebots still have votes and most of them have not decided yet to back anyone else.

  6. “It will be fascinating to see what they think.”

    I wager they’ll be very bored.

  7. Only 6 percent of non-Hillary voters said that they could ever support him
    STOP RIGHT THERE!
    pronoun trouble

    1. So it should be “support xit”?

    2. Thanks for the catch.

  8. Take a good look at the current political climate, particularly — and especially — the rise and sustainability of people like Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, et al. as well as the issues/policies being debated at the moment (secret government lists, gun grabbing, immigrant bans, religious tests, police state theatrics, etc.), and then tell me “Libertarian Moment.”

    I dare you.

    1. Some people go around with rose colored glasses on and never take them off.

      I’m not a pessimist, or an optimist. I would say I try to be a glass half full person, but it’s getting increasingly hard to do.

      The loss of liberty in this country over the past couple decades is very alarming. It seems to be that our politicians only agenda is to get more power for themselves and deprive ‘lower class not politically connected’ people of more of their rights.

      It’s already so far gone that I really see very little hope for this country. I look for us to become a totalitarian state with massive poverty rates and a great deal of people imprisoned, restricted or movement, and living as lower class citizens with many of their rights taken. Gun rights will be gone and free speech will be severely curtailed. Sorry, but this is the only possible outcome if the current trend continues.

      1. The loss of liberty in this country over the past couple decades is very alarming.

        The persistent refusal of many Reason writers to acknowledge this is depressing. They seem to be substituting “you can buy more stuff! isn’t the internet cool!” for “liberty” in their preaching about a libertarian moment.

        1. If you’re selling liberty, you have to sell it. I see their ‘reason’, no pun intended, but of course it’s annoying to the people on the ground.

        2. the relevant figure would be actions that are illegal (or legal) over the total number of possible actions. the denominator has been growing so fucking fast the past couple centuries we don’t see the change in ratio. writers for this magazine can even see their “libertarian moment” I guess, but keeping illegal things as the numerator, we’re getting steadily closer to one.

      2. If I ever get too close to being a real pessimist, I’m damn well putting on those rose colored glasses. If we are really irrevocably fucked, why waste time worrying about it? Make the most of whatever it is you still have.

        1. Just because the outlook is ‘irrevocably fucked’ is no reason to stop trying, right? Or even to give up hope. But putting on rose colored glasses is also dangerous. I’m considering lots of options, even leaving, which wouldn’t be so hard if there were anywhere to go that is not at least in some ways, worse. But that could change also.

          And, nothing is really irrevocable. Sometimes things get a lot worse before it gets better. That’s where I see us right now, we’re in for some very bad times. Maybe that’s what it takes.

          1. No, you are right. I just really don’t want to become an angry, unhappy person anymore than I already am with a lot of optimism still intact.

            1. It’s hard being a libertarian. Ignorance is bliss, they say.

              1. Until they take your bliss away.

      3. Agreed. We may have bits and pieces of liberty every now and then (mostly on account of technology/medicine/science/entrepreneurs) but long term, things aren’t looking well for the liberty brigade.

        1. But we’ve been going on like this for an awful long time even if you count only from the 1st confirmed anatomically modern humans?much longer if you consider animals generally?& I think it’ll continue that way a long time still. And if you look over only the past few thousand yrs., liberty is on a clear upward trend.

        2. Durruti brigade.

      4. In the short term, I am pretty much a pessimist. In the long term I am what John McCarthy (a personal hero) called an extreme optimist, and defines as: “a person who believes his country will probably survive even if it doesn’t take his advice.”

        If that’s a bit of a low bar for extreme optimism, let me be even more extremely optimistic: I think that things might get much worse in the short term, as they have so often. In the long term, I think they are (almost, but not quite) ineluctably going to get better. The charnel-house that was the 20th century notwithstanding, I’d rather be alive now than at any other time in the past. I think people will say the same in 200 years. Unfortunately, I’m likely to see a lot more of the near term than the long term, but so it ever was.

        1. Is that the John McCarthy I know in Norwood?

          1. I’m not sure- is he dead? Did he win a Turing award? Is he this guy: http://amturing.acm.org/award_…..39596.cfm?

        2. In the short term, I am pretty much a pessimist.

          I’m not seeing much reason to be optimistic in the mid-term, either. And I’m of an age where I really don’t have a long-term.

          1. Yeah- I’m not a spring chicken anymore either. I think the arc of history bends toward better, but there are ups and downs- epicycles. An entire lifetime is usually enough to see improvement, at least if you pick the start and endpoints carefully, but what is left of mine might not be long enough for me to see improvement large enough to overcome the epicycles. Depends on how ugly things get- I see them maybe getting pretty ugly, but like I said I am a pessimist in the short-term.

            But I can take solace in the fact that I wasn’t born in Europe in the 1300s. If you ever want a strong dose of perspective read Barbara Tuchman’s book: “A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century.” It’s not just that things have been worse- it is that they have almost universally been worse.

      5. I would say I try to be a glass half full person

        I tend to be a “glass is too big” person. After all, who decided what size glad I need, and why the hell did they only fill it half full (or leave it half empty)?

    2. Just remember what a moment is. It passes by and then it’s gone. “Libertarian moment” doesn’t necessarily suggest real or lasting change. At least that’s how I read it. I do tend to be quite charitable in my interpretations of what people say.

      1. I dunno. It seems like we move one step forward and three steps back. Remember Rand Paul’s awesome filibusters? Now we’re talking about putting people on secret government lists and shredding one constitutional amendment after another.

        1. The way I see it right now, is that we’re taking one step forward towards liberty, and 3 or 4 back. Just consider how rare someone like Rand is in Congress. That’s how rare those of us here are in this society. Most people will give up all their own rights if they can only bully their neighbors a little.

          1. Meh. He caved to Trump.

            (Amash did not. He should really challenge Stabenow in 2018).

          2. one step forward towards liberty, and 3 or 4 back

            Pretty much the way I see it. We’re losing ground, on net, and I don’t see anything on the horizon that will reverse this trend.

        2. Now we’re talking about putting people on secret government lists and shredding one constitutional amendment after another.

          We’ve been talking about that for 15 years or more.

          1. My bad. I meant that we’re actually doing it now (and to ridiculous extents) as opposed to just talking about it.

            I really do think the Second Amendment’s days are numbered because all signs currently point to Trump blowing up before Election Day (not that it matters since I don’t trust the bastard on anything), and Clinton will almost certainly get at least two SC picks.

            There is no way Ginsburg and Breyer go the full four years of Clinton’s first term without stepping down, plus Kennedy is already pushing 80.

            That’ll also lead to the downfall of the Fourth, Tenth, First, and Fifth Amendments, which will probably be gutted slower rather than *too* quickly.

  9. Matt now has the same job Dave Weigel held at Reason back in 2008.

    1. Minus the Pumas…. Oh wait, that gives me an idea….

  10. I can’t at all get excited over Johnson’s polling numbers. Even if I were excited about Johnson, which I’m not, due in no small part to his choice of VP, I couldn’t get excited. The reason is, he was polling similar numbers last time around. And what happened? When Johnson is polling in excess of 15% consistently for more than a month, then I’ll pay attention.

    1. He wasn’t polling similar numbers last time though. He maybe hit 8 percent in one poll. Most polls excluded him. He’s being included in real polls this time, and hitting double digits. It’s unprecedented for the LP candidate, and the opposition from the 2 outdated parties is historically weak.

  11. “Only 6 percent of non-Hillary voters said that they could ever support him”

    Hey!! Just because she has a penis doesn’t make her a “him”!! She identifies as a woman!!

  12. “4 Other Reasons to Be Bullish on Gary Johnson’s Polling”

    Number 3 will shock you!

    1. +1 weird trick for electing a Libertarian President

  13. The Free and Equal Election Foundation is sponsoring a Debate on October 25 at Colorado University in Boulder.

    “Candidates are invited from the Democratic, Republican, and Third Parties, as well as Independent candidates on the ballot in enough states to be electable by 2016, or who received 1% in the National Poll.”

  14. I was included in a YouGov poll today. Hillary and Trump were the only named candidates to choose from, so I went with “Other”. Then there were a bunch of follow-up questions to try to tease out if I was a closet republican or democrat masquerading as an independent (there wasn’t a choice to out myself as libertarian).
    They’ll probably throw my response out as ‘does not compute’.

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  16. Why do the Democrats / Republicans get to decide who is in the Debate. This is the Networks responsibility. I say invite all 3 and if someone complains we can start calling them the crybaby party.

    1. Why do the Democrats / Republicans get to decide who is in the Debate. This is the Networks responsibility.

      The networks do what the Dems, and to a lesser extent the Repubs, tell them to do. Duh.

  17. RCP has GJ at 8.5% in a 3-way race, but that drops to 5.3% when a Green Party candidate is included (who draws 3.3%). I’m thinking half his support is “none of the above” right now.

    And it’s nice that hey offer tracking for the 3-way race, but it should be the default view since all 3 will be on the ballot everywhere.

  18. Be as bullish as you want but after the republican establishment makes sure trump doesn’t win they will re write their bylaws to make sure no one will ever get close enough to challenge them again. Bernie was never close but they gave the appearance he was actually making a challenge. Watch, see what happens after the election. The elite will tell us to notice that they were right and we were wrong. The only reason I’m voting for trump is in hope he will be able to wrestle this away from the elites. The fact that they are trying to torpedo his candidacy is proof they are scared, not of what he says, but what will happen to their “club.” They want to stay in power and believe the people are too stupid to see that what they do benefits everyone. Actually they don’t give a crap about the little man as long as they stay in power.

    1. I would love to see a valid libertarian in the run, but if trump loses, you can kiss that idea ever happening goodbye.

      1. Are you insane. Trump is the poster child for a authoritarian government. Lying crooked Hillary is more of a Republican than that dimwitted fool. Vote for who you want but please never use libertarian and Trump in the same breath

        1. Trump is no libertarian. My point is unless someone can wrestle the elites from the party, they will make sure no one, especially a “wacko bird” (as “I never have seen a country I didn’t want to invade mccain” said of Paul) will ever get a chance to even compete. The trick is to make it seem like they are a challenge but aren’t, like what the democrat party has. Unless trump pulls a page out of obama’s do what ever I want through presidential decrees, he will have to deal with congress. Congress essentially rubber stamps obama, they will do whatever they can to not let trump succeed, so he will be even more restricted. This is the chance for a non establishment party candidate, lose this and there will be no more chances. Watch what happens at the convention, and then again if trump loses. Any true libertarian challenge will be virtually null. you have to have 15% to be on a debate stage? That stifles any other with a valid message, not saying Johnson has a valid message, he’s more republican than libertarian. I say death to the republican party as we know it, I hope it goes by the way of the whigs.

  19. If you watch FOX or CNN when they talk about the election they only mention Hillary and Trump. To be fair occasionally they will bring Johnson on for five minutes. Let’s start being really fair and start mentioning all 3 candidates together. A free and unbiased press is the Keystone of a free Democratic Republic. Stop being a propaganda machine or close your doors.

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