Egypt's Constitutional Crisis, a Story About the 51 Percent

Referendum on draft constitution requiring a simple majority still scheduled for Saturday

Protests in Cairo against President Mohammed Morsi's late November power grab have continued for the last two weeks but they haven't shaken the government's resolve to hold a snap referendum this Saturday on the draft constitution finished last month. The document needs just a simple majority to pass. As the AP noted in the lede of a story on the protests earlier this week, "Morsi is unlikely to worry if Egypt's Islamist-leaning draft constitution passes by only a small margin in a Dec. 15 referendum, since he and his backers tout his 51 percent election victory in June as a 'popular mandate' that is beyond any challenge."

Opposition leaders aren't sure whether to call for a no vote on the draft constitution or to boycott it. "We will either boycott or vote no," Mohammed ElBaradei, a prominent opposition leader, told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. ElBarade called the referendum illegitimate. Voting no would legitimize it, while boycotting lends the appearance of a wide margin, a trap opposition movements often fall into in autocratic countries.

Egypt's defense ministry is already reaching out to journalists and politicians to "resolve" the crisis while Morsi's government blames the widespread unrest on a 1 percent of sorts. From CNN:

"You have the majority of the poor people, the simple, definitely for the president and for the constitution," Muhammad Rifaa al-Tahtawi, Morsy's chief of staff, told CNN on Sunday.

"You have a majority among the elite who are not for this constitution. Businessmen, media people. They are definitely a small minority, but powerful minority."

Al-Tahtawi's comments followed calls by the opposition for new, nationwide protests while accusing Morsy of risking a "violent confrontation" by moving forward with the scheduled vote Saturday.

But al-Tahtawi dismissed the threat, saying the issue would be decided by the people.

"If we do not manage to come to terms, let us go to the people," he said.

The people instead are going to the president, storming the palace in Cairo again today.

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