How Risk Literate Are You?
Understanding risk and probabilities is critical to making private and public policy decisions in the modern world. Now the Max Planck Institute in Berlin as devised a three minute online Risk Literacy test. The Institute's press release explains:
Tests exist for evaluating personality, intelligence and memory. However, up to now, it was not easily possible to find out how good someone is at making decisions in risky situations…
Traditional tests, which tend to determine general cognitive capacities, like intelligence or attention control, provide little information about a person's risk competency. A high level of intelligence does not necessarily mean that the person is equally skilled in all areas…
It emerged from these tests that highly-educated individuals often also have difficulty interpreting information on risk probabilities. "However, if we want to have educated citizens who make decisions based on information, we need people who understand information about risks," explains [Institute psychologist Edward Cokely]. Seen in this way, risk intelligence is just as important a skill as reading and writing.
Go here to take the test to find out how risk literate you are.
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That was a math test in disguise! 😛
I already know I have skewed risk tolerance; I didn't become an actuary, a florist, or a Human Resource Manager.
Bad news, self-congratulators. My ten-year-old son got both questions right and did the test in less than a minute.
Anyone who didn't ace this needs to be ashamed
Whatevs. I don't like math.
I am better than 50-75% of people who wil take the test, or approximately 2/3rds.
I can live with that.
Which one did you get wrong? Shameful!
Probably the mushrooms.
I had the dice one wrong until I have it more thought.
You only get a third question if you answered one of the other two wrong. So if you got 3 quetions, and one wrong, it wasn't the last one.
I took it in Spanish because the English one was too busy. Was surprised only two questions and really thought you were supposed to estimate, not calculate. Still I got better than 75% to 100% or rounded out to 90%, which was "highest possible score".
Me too! "Highest possible score". Feels good to be "risk literate."
I got the first one wrong and I realized it after I clicked next.
My excuse: someone was talking to me about their dog's medical problems while I was taking it.
Lesson in risk: When calculating risk, ignore peoples dog stories.
The dog ate your test work!
I think you have too much faith in people. To us it's clear, simple logic. However, the type of people who support the individual mandate or raising taxes on "the rich" don't have have the cognitive capacity to make such simple calculations.
For what it's worth, I hate the individual mandate but I'm pretty ambivalent on taxing the rich.
same
I'm totally for taxing the rich 100% of income they received from bailouts, but beyond that I'd prefer a flat 5% tax on any individual income regardless of level or source.
It's a known fact that half of all people are below the median in intelligence!
yes, but are they below average? 😉
I've found that I help push a lot of them below average. Sorry.
I think I aced it...it didn't say. It just told me I was among the best in the world at statistics, that I was handsome, articulate and it wanted to bear my children.
Agreed.
It was pretty easy.
Just a easy math test - nothing about measuring risk perceptions.
BP: Apparently, the test has been honed from a bunch of different sub-tests given to thousands of subjects in North America, Europe and Asia. In other words, the Max Planck folks believe that most of the information about an individual's risk literacy can be gleaned from the questions asked.
Like most of the commenters here, I was surprised at its simplicity and dismayed that "passing" it puts one among the most risk literate people on the planet. It's scary to think that most college educated people actually "fail" this test.
Hm. So, since like I noted below, real-life odds are generally ambiguous, this suggests that the fraction of the population able to do simple math is small enough that the Max Plank folks see no point attempting to further differentiate their ability to appraise risks.
More lovely news re: humanity.
Yup. But then again, have you seen comments posts at say, Huffington Post?
I used excel for the dice calculation. Is that cheating?
(5*X)+(2X)=1
X=0.1428571 therefore chance of 6 is 28.57143%. Multiply by the number of rolls (70) to find expected number of 6s (20).
I've done harder stats playing Warhammer 40k.
I suppose you could do it the hard way.
Algebra is the hard way now?
Um, if the Six has twice the odds of any other number, and there are six sides, you add one possibile outcome. So two of the seven possible outcomes are 6, or 20 out of 70.
If you roll it seventy times, you'd get 6 twenty times and all the others ten times. Or twice as often.
Just think Ron, their vote counts just as much as yours. Ain't Democracy grand?
"Your numeracy score is better than about 75-100% of all college educated individuals. Technically, relative to the general population, you are among the most statistically literate in the world.
Indeed, your levels of numeracy reflect a skill level that very few people ever achieve? one that is the result of considerable practice."
...It only asked me two simple math questions. Wtf? When it said 3 minutes I was expecting at least 10 questions.
Hm, can't edit. What do two simple math questions have to do with risk literacy anyway?
You chance of surviving a jump off a cliff is twice as great as your chance of of dying in each of five painful ways. What are your chances of survival?
That's my theory.
Three minutes? It took me less than thirty seconds to answer both questions, and I got the highest score possible.
The questions reminded me of the questions on math team tests that were worth only one point; i.e. the simplest ones.
duh, I'm a programmer, aka "software engineer". Numbers are just a game.
arg, I did miss one... I thought the risk would determined by the time so I sped along.
If I had known it was only 3 questions I wouldn't have taken it.
Too risky.
3 questions?
The test only had two questions.
Congratulations on completing your statistical and risk literacy test!
Your numeracy score is better than about 75-100% of all college educated individuals. Roughly, this means that out of every 100 people who take the test, you will do better than about 90% (90 people) of all other people. This is the highest score one can receive on this test.
Technically, relative to the general population, you are among the most statistically literate in the world.
I used a calculator, however.
If it enables you to calculate risk properly, why would that matter?
Being smart enough to seek assistance does not detract from your success.
Congratulations on completing your statistical and risk literacy test!
Your numeracy score is better than about 75-100% of all college educated individuals. Roughly, this means that out of every 100 people who take the test, you will do better than about 90% (90 people) of all other people. This is the highest score one can receive on this test.
A two question math test that any high-school freshman should be able to ace.
Missing one of those questions should disqualify you from voting or handling money.
I think you greatly overestimate the capabilities of the average high-school freshman.
Good point. I should have said "any high-school freshman that doesn't deserve to be retroactively aborted".
I am reminded of the old VA Minimum Competency exams you had to pass to graduate high school. I was amazed that actual people who weren't institutionalized could fail those.
GA had a writing competency test that college students had to take. If you didnt pass it by the middle of sophomore year, you had to take the remedial english course.
It met 5 days per week at 7 AM. For zero credit.
I had an 8 AM class after it one time. Everyone in it was foreign or an athlete.
Texas had one of those. One of the girls who was in a bunch of AP classes with us failed it. She ended up becoming a Rockets cheerleader, Texans girl and now a trophy wife. Sometimes I wish I had looks instead of brains.
certainly, every legislator/bureaucrat who proposes laws/regs to "reduce the risk of...X" should have to prove they passed this test.
I bet most bureaucrats can't figure out e-mail.
My 6th graders got both right. Simple ratios.
Good point. I'll have to have my kids try this out.
In all fairness, though, the one about the die twice as likely to come up a 6 did force them both think quite a bit more than the choir one.
I would consider being "risk literate" to mean "able to appropriately weigh costs and benefits of decisions involving uncertainty."
Not "able to calculate simple probabilities." Helpful, yes, but often in life the odds are either provided explicitly or, much more often, involve a high degree of ambiguity.
My hunch is that while ability to calculate simple probabilities doesn't necessarily make you risk literate, being unable to calculate them definitely makes you risk illiterate. It's a necessary condition but not a sufficient one.
This is what I was thinking. A slightly longer test that says "You are a 25 year old completely healthy male, and therefore your odds of being seriously medically disabled in the next 10 years is 2%, which would cost you $100,000 in medical bills and lost wages. Health insurance at your job costs $X dollars a month. Should you buy it?"
That sort of thing.
There is no right answer to that, because it depends on your risk aversion.
That's the correct answer, rob! You win!
Statistically speaking if the Premiums are around than ~$160 per month ir lower you should buy it because that is the approximate price point where the Premiums paid in will equal the risk value within the period.
Of course as Robc pointed out it is not this simple because risk aversion has no right or wrong answer and is purely a personal preference and as others have mentioned in the real world the risk percentage (2%) and risk scale ($100K) are typically unknown and more often than not impossible to calculate.
Obviously that means the government should force everybody to buy it.
At 3 times the price.
If the ability "to appropriately weigh costs and benefits of decisions involving uncertainty" is of interest, check out their "Risk Knowledge Quiz":
http://www.riskliteracy.org/dnn/CONTACT.aspx
Click "Risk Knowledge Quiz" in the blue box on the right.
Why do people keep saying there were two questions? I had three: the choir, the dice, and the mushrooms.
Because you made some retarded mistake. You only get three questions if you miss one.
Really? Must have been the dice one then. Which is really weird, because I took it twice and would up with the same score, so I must actually be fucking up the choir one, which I was pretty sure I had right.
Oh well.
Rethink the dice one.
Remember the die still has six sides with six different numbers on them.
It's not 2/3 it's 2/7.
If you get the first question wrong it gives you a second question about a 5-sided die, which would be really weird looking.
a 5-sided die, which would be really weird looking.
You have heard of a square pyramid, no?
Yeah, your right, but the triangular pyramids are already hard enough to roll.
The die has 5 sides.
Only if you got the first one wrong.
Got it. So much for doing them in my head.
I did the first one in my head.
100 + 300 = 400
100 / 400 = 25%
Just for fun I intentionally got the first two wrong, and didn't get a third. It put me in the bottom 25%.
I only got two questions. Does that mean I got both of them right?
Either you got both right or the first one wrong.
Amateur. Can't even cheat on an online test.
Somebody needs to reach these kids!
I had three, too.
Only four questions total. If you get the first right but the second wrong it gives you a third to put you in the top 1/3 or bottom 1/3. If you get two right you win. Easy enough.
How did you get four questions out of that? You fail at failing.
If you get the first wrong it presents you with a different question than if you get the first right.
Different second question that is.
So what are the four questions?
1) choir
2) die
3) mushrooms
4) ?
1) Choir
2a) 6-sided die
2b) 5-sided die
3) mushrooms
I take back everything I said about you in the last fifteen minutes.
Are 2a and 2b the same question with a different number of sides, or are they substantially different?
I'm wondering if the math is supposed to be easier with a five-sided die. Seems like it would confuse the hell out of most people. "Five sides? Whut?"
The 5-sided die is just a simplistic version of the 6-sided die question. Go figure eh?
Okay, I just went back and missed the first one, and the five sided die question is much much easier. Like, you'd really have to be completely innumerate to miss it.
So basically, what we're seeing is another bullshit psychology test measuring something ethereal based on completely arbitrary questions chosen on a theory by the researchers, with absolutely no way of proving or confirming it. Super.
This test if bullshi- OW! MY BALLS!
j/k
Oh, I got both questions right. It's still bullshit.
lol
What? This is a great excuse for what will almost certainly amount to an open thread.
I don't think it was even that. It's not really psychological at all, just a basic math test to see if you have a basic understanding of how to calculate probabilities.
I think it demonstrates one sort of interesting fact: that a surprising number of people don't have the basic math skills to understand statistics and probability.
But we already knew that. We didn't need this test.
Epi: Surely you find it somewhat gratifying that your view was confirmed by the test?
I'm pretty sure the only thing he finds gratifying is a tender moment with SugarFree.
You leave our tender moments out of this! Those are for us and us alone!
Ahem...
I don't know if I'd say being reminded of something depressing is "gratifying", Ron.
Epi: Surely you find it somewhat gratifying that your view was confirmed by the test?
Ron Bailey: Epi, as usual, makes an excellent point: Besides these types of tests being statistician's pornography, real life results matters more than these tests. I can tell you from ER/ED experience that a truer measure of risk tolerance and risk aversion is avoiding a trip to the ER/ED. I have seen some pretty smart people end up there for performing incredible feats of stupidity and ending up with entirely foreseeable results.
I guess we know who else shares tender moments with Epi. Are you the one that drove him to the ER after the unfortunate felching incedent?
Are you the one that drove him to the ER after the unfortunate felching incedent?
He drove me! I thought this was widely known. The modern Hoover has nothing on Epi's vast inspirational capacity. 'Twas truly a sight to behold. I still walk funny to this day. I didn't even get a reach around.
I laughed so hard I got Santorum on my monitor.
The first question I got had enough misdirection it would have been possible for an innattentive reader to miss it. If I had taken the test in German, I would have missed the first question for sure. I hope they are able to add more difficult questions so we can tell reason readers apart by their score.
Read it and weep bitches!
I got that too, plus it says my cock is unstoppable.
I lied, I am only in the 2/3rds group.
A small price to pay for an unstoppable manhood.
At least you still have your cock.
That was funny
I want to know who are the 10% who would do better than I did. I must eliminate them.
They're in this thread.
[Looks around with eyes narrowed]
Quo?
I may have aced the test, but in reality, like a certain ex-SEC footbal coach, it depends on how drunk I am.
Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy. Fuck him.
More than one person noted that he hadn't won any SEC championships during his tenure anyway. I suspect he'd still be there if he had.
That was a basic math and reading comprehension test. WtF?
All such tests ultimately boil down to tests of IQ. Higher intelligence goes with being less accident prone, making better decisions, etc. It's all part of g.
Can we get the names of readers who got something wrong added to a list so their comments show up Comic Sans in reasonable?
Hear hear!
If you're bragging about how this was "a simple math test sniff," your risk of being beat up in high school approaches 100%
Says the guy who missed one.
How could anybody miss a question on that? They'd have to be retarded or a pedant.
Sorry, can't hear you with your head in the toilet.
My high school ACT math score was top 2% in the country. The morning of my second day of high school I beat up a bully twice my size so bad his eye was swollen shut and half his face was one giant bruise. He walked around the rest of the day like that. Nobody messed with me after that.
Jesus. It's like you read my diary (that doesn't exist) and quoted something directly from my life.
My second day of high school was just like that, except that I also got to third base with the 24-year-old art teacher who looked like Katherine McPhee. She still calls me sometimes.
That's pretty sweet
This boast has no meaning unless you tell us your SAT score as well.
Not boasting at all. Just pointing out that just because you're not a moron doesn't automatically make you a pussy.
No, but telling Reddit "I beat up a bully" stories makes you risible.
I care
Clearly you do.
Please don't beat me up, look I'm wearing glasses.
I got a 1560.
Pre or post recentering?
In 1988, so pre-.
800 math.
760 verbal.
So Lip is based on you?
Please discuss. This is the best lineup I've seen in years. Makes the trip almost...desirable.
Hey Ken, the 90s called. They want their shitty, played out bands back.
Black Sabbath is wondering when they became a played-out band from the 90's.
I didn't say all of the bands were shitty played out bands from the 90s. You're right, some are shitty played out bands from other decades as well.
(For the record I love original Black Sabbath)
Black Sabbath kicks ass. Hell I even liked Heaven and Hell.
I was just commenting that this is the best Lallapalooza lineup in some time.
I wasn't trying to get a music snobbery thread going.
Or was I?
Or was I?
You were; it's a classic Fraudian Slip. I blame your wife.
As you should.
Red Hot Chili Peppers? Aren't they like the Toto of the 90s?
Yeah, that looks awesome. Hell I'm less than an hour by plane. With the time difference I get there before I take off.
I boycotted Ozzy after I went to the "No More Tours" tour, was forced to listen to "No More Tears", then he kept touring.
Bastard.
He can go fuck himself.
Hah! About ten minutes from my house this will be happening. Tool's only show in the US in 2012!
Well, Lollapalooza's lineup is better (Florence and the Machine, the Shins, and Sigur Ros alone would do that), but that's also 12 hours away. And it'll be fun to see the Flaming Lips live.
Aw, that sucked = 3 questions?
someone check my work
a)25%
b)28
c)10%
the only one I might be slightly confused about is the dice one. if i'm wrong, its 23?
b is 20
x = chance of each side other than 6
2x = chance of side 6
2x + 5(x) = total chances of all six sides
2x + 5x = 70
x = 10
2x = 20
I guess that way is easier than my way, where you set 2x+5x=1.
It's hitting the six two of every seven rolls.
I also used this method, not the whole algebra thing.
Yeah, functionally equivalent to a 7-sided die with 2 6s, imo.
Exactly! All those little x's are too much work.
Looks like you gave the percentage rather than the number of rolls.
Yeah, the dice one got me. 1/6, double that, 23. sarcasmic put it better, think of it a die with 7 numbers, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6.
1/6 doubled is 1/3... not seeing where the 23 comes from.
.16 x 2 x 70.
1/3 of 70 is 23.33333333333. That's where he got it from.
I was wondering what the hell you guys were talking about, and now I realize that not everyone gets the same questions...
Yes they do.
Nope. I took the test a second time and got a different dice question.
The first time I got the five-sided die question, the second time I got the loaded six sided die question.
There are only four questions total. Everyone gets some combination of the four depending on which they get right or wrong.
Ah, that may be it. So it only asks you two questions if you get the first one wrong? Hmm.
Episiarch|4.11.12 @ 4:35PM|#
1/3 of 70 is 23.33333333333. That's where he got it from.
Erp. Yes, that's what I did.
What's embarrassing is even getting 2/3 the questions right, I'm still fucking supposed to be Mr.Spock-meets-Data-wicked-smaat compared to the majority of "college educated" numbnuts.
The whole thing is just depressing.
Or rather, no - both of my wrong answers are explained here... the first one I picked (28) was the odds weighted percentage - the backup, non-weighted one (23) is explained here.
Even my stupidity is easy to for others to deconstruct.
It's a 7 sided die but two of the sides are 6.
I would have felt like a risk averse spastic if I didn't get both of those right. Does it measure for feeling othered by a two question math test?
It's a wonder anyone in the Obama administration survived.
Um, sorry to burst your bubble, but the undead don't have to breathe, Tulpa, so this isn't news.
You all of course realize that not only did we collectively take a math test, but are discussing the questions and answers afterward.
It's like you're saying most people here don't realize they're nerdy on some level.
Postrel would have been far too cool to have let this fly.
Thanks, I chalk that one up on the thirst board later.
You're right. We should talk about how Kirk is better than Picard instead.
Don't underestimate the sex appeal of bald men.
I'm not really capable of estimating it at all, dude.
Question: will a bald man increase or decrease his sex appeal by growing his beard to Viking length? How about if he braids it? I need to know, for science.
I'll be in my bunk.
Excellent. Good to know.
Don't underestimate the sex appeal of bald men.
You can't. They have none.
Good thing there are no feminist libertarians, otherwise somebody would bring up Janeway...and I'd have to kill them.
You're a Neelix fan. I can tell.
That's going too far.
[throws down gauntlet]
Who would you say your favorite character on TNG was, Ken? It must have been Guinan, right?
That was low, dude. Low!
Shut up, doc. Everyone knows your favorite character was/is Alexander.
Shut up, doc. Everyone knows your favorite character was/is Alexander.
Fuck you! It should be obvious my fave character is Dr. Pulaski. With The Traveler a close second.
Totally uncalled-for, dude. Totally uncalled for.
And FWIW, it was Lore. And that oil slick that killed Tasha Yar is a close second.
Actually, I'm changing that to Ralph Offenhouse. That guy may have been the only chance for humankind in the future.
Wait, so it is NOT Wesley Crusher? Why didn't you say anything when I added the doll to our wedding registry?!
Duh, the answer is "Q", because John De Lancie chewing up scenery is an awesome sight to behold.
Duh, the answer is "Q", because John De Lancie chewing up scenery is an awesome sight to behold.
How true, how true. DeLancie is one of the Dukes of Ham. Plus he also ran off with Vash. Q's studmuffin-ship is truly underestimated.
The only thing that could have improved the oil slick episode was it getting Wesley as well.
Well he did run off with an interdimensional child molester...
His survival is unacceptable, Tim. UNACCEPTABLE. That time he broke the law on that planet where the punishment for anything was death; I thought that was it, but then they jerked the rug out from under me.
And he passed up on his chance to fuck Ashley Judd as well.
What a fag.
Well he did run off with an interdimensional child molester...
That's why the The Traveler is one of my favorite characters...he rid us of Westley fucking Crusher.
Yeah The Traveller was creepy, but 7 foot albinos are a bit unsettling.
Every episode Wesley Crusher survived killed me a little bit inside.
So YOU were the one who created the "Die Wesley Crusher! Die, Die, Die" group on Usenet?
I think that was Wil Wheaton, actually.
Then there was the episode where Tuvok got stranded in Ancient Florida and shot by some jerkoff homeowner.
If Obama had a Vulcan son, he'd look like Tim Russ wearing prosthetic ears.
Even Mulgrew thought Janeway was psychotic.
Logic syllogism:
1. The worth viewing in Voyager was Jeri Ryan.
2. Jeri Ryan gave us President Obama.
3. Obama is ruining the country.
Therefore Voyager ruined the country.
QED
yeesh. s/b "only thing worth viewing"
Your logic looks rock solid to me, and makes intuitive sense as well.
Fails on line one. I was a B'lanna Torres fan.
Hey, Kes was hot too, even if her personality was nearly asexual.
Damn, you too, Doc? I thought I was the only one.
This of course, in no way reduces the value of Jeri Ryan's Borg implants.
It was not the implants themselves, it was the Doctor's insistance that catsuits were a medically necessary treatment for de-borgification.
Kirk would have court martialed Riker.
Jellico is still the best Trek captain.
Taking your words literally, the best Captain was that sweaty dude on 'The Doomsday Machine' who did that George C. Scott-in-Hardcore freakout while being bathed in psychedelic light.
Commodore Decker, the father of the guy who merged with V'Ger in ST:TMP, and that guy was proto-Riker.
Seriously the only real military officer to hold a Captains Rank in the entire history of the Star Trek Universe was on for like a 2 episode stint. Captain Edward Jellico
Picard was a skilled and capable diplomat but not a military officer and Kirk was a useless Cowboy who would have been kicked out for insubbordination in his first year
I liked it when he told dipshit to wear a regulation uniform.
You do realize that was the first link in a chain of decisions that led to dipshit crashing the Enterprise-D?
Well, this is a group which has a collective percentage of having Asperger's approaching 100%, so there is that.
My favorite episode is the 1967 one where STEVE SMITH rapes a shuttlecraft.
I like the cliffhanger episode in 1968 where SugarFree fell into Warty's Maw. It was very creative how SugarFree escaped all that gravity.
Take the 3 minute test in English
I'm already detecting risk...
The real winners are those too risk averse to even click on that link.
Ding! You win a kewpie doll!
"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"
It just asked me two elementary-school arithmetic questions. Based upon my answers, it concluded that I was more risk literate than 75%-90% of Americans. Amazing!
They have a slightly more difficult, 8-question test at http://www.unipark.de/uc/silbe.....lash=1102.
8/8 on it, too.
Are you a 58-year-old male with an MBA?
Yeah, it only asked me two questions, too. yet above, people are talking about three answers. I took the test more than once and got a different second question. It went from five-sided to six-sided loaded die.
I did a search on the question text and apparently there's a 2A/2B question. There's a third question asking something about the chance of meeting Al Gore in a rain forest while on shrooms or something, but I never get a third question.
Sloopy's Risk Literacy Test:
Question 1: You are an off-duty neighborhood watch guy on your way somewhere. You notice a stranger in your neighborhood wearing a hoodie in the rain. What do you do?
A: Mind your own business.
B: Ask him if he needs a ride or help.
C: Call the cops and keep following him until they show up.
D: Get out of your car and initiate a confrontation
Question 2: You are a policeman in Santa Fe, NM and are bored while in your cruiser. You kill boredom by:
A: Find a drunk to harass and beat the shit out of.
B: Jack off in your cruiser with the dashcam off.
C: Jack off in your cruiser with your dashcam on.
D: Take a nice nap behind a billboard.
Yay! I can do basic math.
No wonder they let you in to Mensa
This is just like that time I PWND the fuck out of the SAT. Fuck you, standardized tests!
Just for the folks keeping score at home, SAT, in this case, means "Sexually Attractive Transsexual." NTTAWWT
I got 2 for 2 on the short test, 7 for 8 on the longer one. Wrong on the question about female smoker mortality; as I'm neither female nor a smoker I guess that's ok.
Only wise Latinas get that one right.
I guess I am especially risk averse, If I found myself in a town of 1,000 people that had a 500 person choir, I would assume something creepy is going on and leave. On the other hand, if you were stuck in the town, I would probably join the shoir, as everywhere else woould seem to be a sausage fest
I gave two different answers for the final question, keeping the others exactly the same, and it didn't change my score at all.
What a load of shit.
Oh, it changed with the right answer
Not to say that it wasn't shitty anyway
Thanks