That Damascene Style

Tim notes the theory that Bashar Assad ordered the Hariri murder out of incompetence and stupidity. But there's also corruption and recklessness to be considered.

Josh Landis has been blogging from Damascus, putting up a series of remarkable posts based on his access to knowledgeable Syrians and diplomats. Last week, he posted a description of how the Assad family has been making state decisions. Landis has since taken the post down, because, he writes, it had drawn a lot of attention in Damascus, and posed a potential threat to his Syrian friends and relatives.

However, Tony Badran at Across the Bay noted the Landis post, and citing his own sources, confirmed its essential thesis of how the Assad family has been running Lebanon. (And if you're not reading Across the Bay regularly, you're not interested in the Middle East.)

The proximate origin of Syria's current debacle in Lebanon involves the extension of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud's term of office, an arbitrary abuse of Syria's power that was contrary to Lebanon's constitution. According to Landis' sources, "The decision to extend President Emile Lahoud's term was taken by the Asad family itself," despite objections by Damascus' so-called "old guard" of advisers.

Why? Landis' source, a diplomat, told him that "family members such as Bashar's brother Maher and his cousin Rami Makhlouf had important business dealings in Lebanon which depended on Lahoud. 'They needed Lahoud to stay for their own interests.'"

Badran adds that his sources agree "on Bashar and his immediate family making all the decisions on Lebanon, not just the extension of Lahoud's term, but also the attempt on MP [Marwan] Hamade."

Comments

[Gary Gunnels]

Is Bashar both a moron and corrupt? 🙂

[gaius marius]

the assad family may well have done this thing out of myopic concern for tangible assets, but it must be reiterated that it would still take a misguided, monumental and counterintuitive -- as pointed out by seale and the arabist and syria comment -- decision on the part of a long-established ruling clan to make the speculation so.

the assumptions on the part of those indicting the syrians is that the assads are so blinded by whatever money they're making in lebanon that they could not see 1) the potential force of the gathering storm of american/french pressure despite the american army in iraq; and 2) the importance of hariri, a highly symbolic figure and a man with whom they worked closely for more than a decade. i find that to be unlikely. not impossible, but unlikely.

that hasn't stopped the united states and the neocons from using the event to place blame with the aura of certainty on their ideological enemy and rejustify their longstanding war plan.