An October Recall

It's back on.

Comments

[Thorley Winston]

The circus continues and the other 49 States can lift their heads just a little bit higher now. 😉

[Anonymous]

Next stop, SCOTUS

[Anonymous]

Question for any math whizzes out there: What is the probability that, out of 23 judges, three chosen to hear the appeal would unanimously say one thing, while eleven chosen to rehear the appeal would unanimously say the exact opposite? Seems like this is pretty unlikely no matter what the distribution of philosophies is across the full court.

[Topaz]

YAWN.

California recall = boring.

[chthus]

I think it would be something like:

(X/23)^3 * ((23-X)/23)^11

where X = the number out of 23 that would have voted as the 3 did (against Oct 7).

But that's in a vacuum, you have to take into account that they can influence on anothers arguments in the real world.

[mtc]

Any other Heinlein fans notice the parallels between this whole recall circus and the descriptions of unlimited democracy in California in a balkanized America in his novel Friday? Basically, he envisioned a constant turnover of power and the rule of the majority's whims, and this seems like what California is (and has been) turning into.

Makes you kinda wonder what else the man may have been right about (like how in almost every one of his stories mentioning the United States, we always see American civillization in a marked decline from its present state).

[Don]

"The circus continues and the other 49 States can lift their heads just a little bit higher now. ;)"

Halting the recall was part of the circus.

[chthus]

Sorry folks, the show's over, it appears all the big top clowns went home and won't be back until next year. Sorry.

OH Wait, the clowns were just foolin', here the come now!

Doodoo doodaloota dootdootdo

[amr]

Chthus,
Your formula is not correct. The correct formula is (X C 3)/(23 C 3) * ((23-X) C 11)/(23 C 11).
Where x C y is the "Choose function", meaning the number of unordered subsets size y out of a set size x. And X is the number of pro-postponement judges in the ninth circuit.
See http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HypergeometricDistribution.html

Now, for the answer, the highest probability is 0.0133%, which happens when X is 5 (that is, 5 of the 23 judges in the circuit are pro-postponement). This assumes that all the judges are independent and (basically) predetermined in whow they'll vote on such a case.

amr

[Steve]

Ha! The recall is a circus! I get it! Ho-ho!

Wow, you guys are hilarious. Does anybody here write for Leno?

I personally don't think its's funny that my state has the most beyond-fucked-up government imaginable. I mean, it's funny in a sick way, but it's not that funny that people are trying to fix something. Recalling the entire legislature would be better, but you've gotta start somewhere.

[Warren]

Steve,
Lighten up and join the merry making. If you can't see the humor in your own beyond-fucked-up state, just look at Texas or Florida.

[joe]

The Speaker of the Massachusetts House went on "Extreme Makeover" and told the host he wanted to look like Mitt Romney "only hotter."

Doodoo doodaloota dootdootdo

[chthus]

We had a hurricane and I got a four-day weekend out of it, and didn't even lose power.

Doodoo doodaloota dootdootdo

Don't worry Steve, people think your state's a joke for a lot more reasons than the recall.

[thoreau]

I already mailed in my absentee ballot: No on recall, Larry Flynt if the recall passes, and no on the propositions.

The best way to predict an election outcome is to see how I voted and assume the opposite. I predict that the recall will pass, Larry Flynt will lose, and both ballot measures will be approved. You might like or dislike those outcomes, but that's what will happen.

[Kevin Carson]

Are you kidding, Steve? Ever since the recall issue appeared on the horizon, I've been hoping a copycat movement would make a similar effort to fuck up MY state government!

[Don]

"I already mailed in my absentee ballot: No on recall, Larry Flynt if the recall passes, and no on the propositions."

I think the original way they were going to do it was correct: if you vote "no" on the recall, you are effectively voting for Davis, and you don't get to vote for one of his challengers.

[joe]

Why, Kevin? So that the new governor will feel more pressure to "show leadership" on some issue de jour? So that no politician will ever again dare to oppose a popular position on the merits? So that electoral silly season can become the permanent state of Arkansas politics?