Crappy Anniversary To You Too

A new bin Laden video has reportedly surfaced.

Comments

[Pair Annoyed]

Prediction: Bin Laden will be killed shortly after GW Bush's second election. Discuss.

[joe]

Prediction: By March 2004, Pair Annoyed will be talking about how Bin Laden would already be dead if Bush had been re-elected. Get a snack.

[joe]

Oh, and go fuck yourself, you blood stained rich kid theocrat barbarian piece of shit.

[Rex Stetson]

This is slightly off-topic, but has anyone else thought that the WTO Conference would be the perfect terrorist target?
Opponents of the WTO hate
globalization, capitalism, and US Foreign Policy, seeing it as economic or real imperialism basically. Terrorist hate these things too, and recruit from students, so do the protesters. Many foreigners are coming to Cancun for the WTO, and Mexico sucks on immigration and border control, and is a close ally of the US right nextdoor too. This is the place for the bad guys to hit: not quite manhattan, but a lot closer to the US than a Bali nightclub...

[Luca Brasi]

I think a more cynical perdiction is, "Bin Laden will be killed shortly before the 2004 elections."

[Rex Stetson]

Tomorrow's the 9/11 anniversary, and hitting the WTO tomorrow would be ideal for the symbolism. The WTC was about capitalism and globalization too. Just a thought.

[objective dissent]

It's absurd that anyone takes these audio/video releases seriously.

The only way to prove BoLaden is alive is to have a video made with him face up in the camera, no doubts as to who it is, with a newspaper headline from a fairly recent date (or some other airtight proof of timeliness).

As it is, we get audio tapes of him speaking on recent events and a video of him saying nothing.

The guy is dead. Limbaugh had a good take on it; that the Jihad will not let him die until an opportune time to give him the appropriate martyr's death. Death by Daisy cutter just wasn't motivational enough.

When the time is right, the Jihad will admit he is dead but he will have gone out in some blaze of glory. Maybe when a fuel laden 747 tears into the Paris bourse, they'll claim BoLaden was at the controls. Praise allah.

[Hovig John Heghinian]

I agree with "objective dissent." The video may have been taken in "April or May" of 2002 ... or even 2001.

I didn't get "Luca Brasi's" joke tho. I get "Pair Annoyed's" joke (which "objective dissent" made even funnier, given that Qaeda is the one really "keeping OBL alive"), but to continue the "Godfather" metaphor, wouldn't the best style be to kill OBL at the same exact time and date as the inauguration? 🙂

Interesting what Rex Stetson said about the WTO, very interesting, but I still have to disagree, because I don't think Qaeda goes after "obvious" targets, or at least not at "obvious times." I don't think that's their MO. They want to identify and attack the underbelly. That's the reason behind the recent UN attack in Iraq.

[Fred App]

Yeah, sure. Bin Laden is dead. So is Saddam. They were both killed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. And the main suspects are the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus.

[Mudflap]

Luca-

More likely is Bin Laden will be captured shortly before the next election. Bush will go to see Bin Laden in jail. Bush will then shoot Bin Laden while escaping in some miraculous and heroic fashion. Bush will then get back in his jet and fly back to his aircraft carrier

[objective dissent]

Since it's a slow day I'll respond to fred;

Why has OBL made these audio tapes and not made any video tapes proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is alive?

The very reason he supposedly made the audio tapes would be reason enough to make an airtight video.

If he could, he would. Since he hasn't, it means that he cannot. Because he is dead.

Saddam is a different story, he actually has tactical reason to remain hidden, but not BoLadie.

[joe]

...and he will do it boldly. With moral clarity.

[xray]

Objective: OBL is so upset you don't believe he is alive. He is having a videotape delivered to you right now - because it will surely advance his cause changing your mind.

The fact is, he doesn't make those tapes (or his followers don't fake those tapes) for you. His audience is quite happy to believe in him based on the currently available evidence.

[Denal Nib Amaso]

"This is slightly off-topic, but has anyone else thought that the WTO Conference would be the perfect terrorist target?
Opponents of the WTO hate
globalization, capitalism, and US Foreign Policy, seeing it as economic or real imperialism basically. Terrorist hate these things too, and recruit from students, so do the protesters. Many foreigners are coming to Cancun for the WTO, and Mexico sucks on immigration and border control, and is a close ally of the US right nextdoor too."

What a terrifi ... eh ahem ... terrible idea Rex. Tell us more about what this honorable ... I mean ... horrible attack might look like.

[objective dissent]

xray,

The audio tapes are by and large ineffective, the only ones who actually believe he might possibly be alive are going to fight to their own deaths regardless of whether or not they get a candy gram from Bin.

joe & Co. don't actually believe he's still alive, but they have to "keep hope alive" in order to foment their hysterical agenda.

[Luca Brasi]

Mudflap, that was gold.

[Hovig John Heghinian]

Objective Dissent - I think your case is even stronger than you stated yourself. According to the ABC story above, the audio tape released today features the voice of Al-Zawahiri, whereas the video released today is merely some archival footage-o-sama. We don't even have any voice-o-sama in today's release, just some high school prom video or Halloween costume party or something. Next week they'll release the video of him driving his new Z28.

Xray - I'm not sure anybody's actually trying to convince anyone of anything. I think the release merely affirms that al-Qaeda is still active, and the video implies the message comes "From The Desk-O-Sama."

[objective dissent]

The bottom line is, as evidenced by the litany of audio tapes we've already received, is that Bin wants to convince somebody he's still around.

It doesn't make any sense for him to choose the least effective way to do it. So,. . .

If he could, he would, but he hasn't. . .

[Hovig John Heghinian]

Correction/Update: I just read an AP story which says bin Laden does speak on the tape ... and praises the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States two years ago for causing "great damage to the enemy" and mentions five of the hijackers by name.

Anyone got a doornail? I say, people, can I get a doornail?

[objective dissent]

The video doesn't have any speaking in it, and even if it did, he would still have to prove the date.

It would be too easy to make an hours worth of video clips with Bin remarking on the various anniversaries of 911.

[xray]

Okay, you've proved it, OBL's dead. Now could you help GW and friends find those pesky WMDs?

[David Kay]

xray,

Don't you follow the news? Bekaa Valley. Once the UN takes over the majority of the peace keeping duties, or the Iraqis are self sufficient enough to handle the job themselves, we'll be going in. It's sort of like a video game where you beat what you think is the finally board, only to find that there's something else lurking and you have to beat another, harder final board. Or will there be more after that?

[Warren]

Since I haven't heard anyone advance my pet theory anywhere, I'll put it here.

Osama Can't be video taped for the next three or four years while he grows back his facial hair. Which he shaved to affect a disguise while hiding out in/escaping Afghanistan.

[Kevin Carson]

Maybe Bush won't let Osama die until an opportune moment (like before the election). Death by daisy cutter wasn't motivational enough. Maybe they'll "find" WMD's in Iraq about the same time.

[Lefty]

The speculation on this thread is very similar to that in the Mideast when they see Western accounts of what's going on. Seems like nobody can believe a word, and now a picture, they hear or see.

As Groucho said, "who you gonna believe; me or your own two eyes?"

Tough choice.

[Rick Barton]

Bin Laden and Saddam not being captured or killed is consistent with good movie scripting. Now they can be brought back for sequels. Imagine if Lucas would have killed Vader in the first Star Wars episode. Would have wrecked everything.

[Jason Ligon]

Saddam is Bush's father!

No, wait ...

[Isaac Asimov]

"It would be too easy to make an hours worth of video clips with Bin remarking on the various anniversaries of 911."

At the successful conclusion of the next crisis, OBL will appear in the time vault to discuss the progress of psychohistory.

[Xmas]

If Osama was going to attack the WTO meeting in Cancun, he would have been carrying a Pina Colada or something during the video.

The video after the USS Cole attack had him carrying a Yemeni ceremonial dagger. I'm not sure if the video before the Sept. 11th attacks had anything special, but I'm not certain.

[B.P.]

It's time for the RIAA to step in and sue these major media outlets for making unauthorized copies of Osama's work.