Odds Couple

Via the Fox News Channel Web site, Brit Hume reports that oddsmakers are laying 2 to 7 on Gray Davis getting recalled (note to non-gamblers: that means a $7 bet will only win you back $2).

In terms of the guv race, they're giving Ah-nold 7 to 5 and Cruz B. 8 to 5. Larry Flynt and Gary Coleman are coming in at 500 to 1.

Comments

[R C Dean]

"Actually, these aren't that different from Hume's Vegas odds."

I'll bet you dollars to donuts that's because the oddsmakers monitor tradesports.

[Plutarck]

"The democrats do a good job kicking the crap out of themselves!"

In the words of Will Rogers, "When the Democrats want to create a firing squad, they form a circle."

And as Dennis Miller said, "Hey, I don't have anything against you guys organizing to try and get your point across; as a matter of fact, I think the Democratic Party should try that some time."

[Jean Bart]

Nick,

Does this mean that according to bookmakers that he is more likely to win than not?

[amr]

1. it should read "2-7 odds of beating the recall."

2. For real probabilities, go to tradesports.
http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/datafeed/liveprices/LivePrices.jsp?eventclassinput=Politics&location=LivePrices
People actually put their money up. Futures trading on political (among other) events. This site was mentioned a lot when DARPA's "terrorism futures" idea was shot down.

Currently, Schwarz. is at 43.0 (meaning a percent probability of winning), Bustamente is at 35.9, and Davis (recall fails) is at 22.0. No one else is greater than 1.0. Actually, these aren't that different from Hume's Vegas odds.

[Jean Bart]

amr,

According to the website, Dean is kicking the crap out of the Democrat field.

[Anonymous]

The democrats do a good job kicking the crap out of themselves!

[Jimmy Antley]

"Give me fitty dollas on that blondy with the big uns. She's a mudder, her father was a mudder, her mudder was a mudder ..."